Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 121932

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
232 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Little going on in the short term. Models have been adamant in
drawing some low level moisture into eastern MN during the
evening. Looks at the latest satellite image, its apparent this
isnt happening. Will keep the MN portion of the area mainly clear
tonight and Tuesday. Coming into mid March and sun is pretty
strong. We were able to over achieve this afternoon across most of
the area with full sun. Bumped blended guidance temepratures some
for Tuesday with nearly full sun expected again.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Longer term trends remain fairly good through the work week. It
looks to remain dry, but the various deterministic runs diverge
on timing of another cold front Wednesday and how much cold air
will be driven south over the cwa.

Blocking develops as the eastern and western CONUS troughs
dominate during the week. The EC is ever so slightly farther west
with its cooler 850mb temperatures through Tuesday night but
draws warming ahead of the incoming cold front. We will continue
to warm Wednesday highs to 40 to 45. This trough/front will go
through dry with perhaps only some slight cooling for Thursday
before warmer readings arrive for the remainder of the period.

Precipitation chances appear slim at least through Friday with
the chances increasing again by late Sunday and Monday  to the
ECMWF. The GFS tries to lift more moisture into the area Friday
into Saturday but with the retreating ridge, this may be a little
fast. If model trends continue we may be able to safely remove
lower end PoPs Friday night and Saturday at least in future


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Main concern this afternoon/evening is small threat of MVFR cigs
developing affecting the eastern areas, mainly east of KMSP into
western WI. Appears cigs of 3500-4500ft likely especially into
western WI into the evening. Will trend things that way with VFR
trends to the west. Some wind gusts possible this afternoon and
diminish around 00z Tue.

Still some chance of cigs around 4K feet developing later this

.Tuesday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kts.
.Wednesday...VFR. Mainly west wind 5-7 kts.
.Wednesday night...VFR. North wind less than 5 kts.
.Thursday...VFR. Northeast wind around 5 kts.




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