Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 222250

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
550 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.UPDATE...Mid level clouds will dissipate early this evening with
polar high pressure and another cold night expected. The high will
shift east for Fri with ely winds developing. High clouds will
increase from west to east through the day.


.AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Bkn070 over portions of southeast and south
central WI will dissipate early this evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions tnt-Fri.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 225 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018)


Tonight and Friday - Confidence...High
The influence of the dry and cool high pressure system will extend
into Friday. Trended towards the cooler guidance numbers for
tonight. Some mid and high level moisture may work in during the
afternoon Friday especially into the southwest part of the cwa.

Friday night and Saturday...Forecast confidence is high.

The challenge remains the same. The big Hudson Bay high will be
supplying a steady feed of dry air from the east while low
pressure approaches from the west and attempts to push moisture
into Wisconsin. The main change to the forecast this afternoon was
to really tighten up the precip chance/amount gradient on the
east/northeast side. It still looks like Lafayette county could
see about 4 inches of snow with the amounts diminishing VERY
quickly to the northeast of there. I`m going to hold off on any
advisories for now as there could be further drying that will keep
amounts lower. The overnight forecast crew can make the decision
about an advisory for Friday night/Saturday morning. The peak snow
still looks like late evening Friday through about 9 am Saturday
morning. Winds will be brisk out of the east, so a rather chilly
day, especially near Lake Michigan and down where it may be
snowing southwest of Madison.

Sunday...Forecast confidence is high.

We should sneak in a dry and sunny day here. Unfortunately, those
easterly brisk winds will persist, making it chilly by the lake.
Temps farther inland will likely reach the mid 40s.

Monday and Tuesday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We finally get into a warmer more moist southwest flow aloft as
the upper level ridge pushes toward the east coast and we see deep
troughing into the 4-corners region of the southwest. Surface
cyclogenesis kicks off over the Central Plains by Monday with deep
warm air advection pushing into Wisconsin Monday afternoon. This
should bring us our next chance of rain on Monday. The surface
trough will become very elongated and move slowly through the
Great Lakes, exiting to the east Tuesday evening. Therefore, we
have a rather extended period rain chances from Monday afternoon
through Tuesday evening. For now, rainfall amounts are in the 1/2
to 1 inch range. Higher amounts southeast, lower toward Baraboo.

Wednesday and Thursday...Forecast confidence is medium.

We should dry out under high pressure. Highs will be running near
or a bit above normal.

AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...VFR mostly SKC this period. A few CU
dotting the skies of sc WI. May see an uptick in mid/high level
moisture on Friday ahead of the next wx maker. But area looks dry
through at least Friday afternoon.

MARINE...Quiet through tonight and into Friday morning with high
pressure dominating. Small craft advisory conditions still looking
likely for Friday night through Saturday night associated with
tightening pressure gradient with low pressure passing to our




Tonight/Friday and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Friday Night through Thursday...Davis is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.