Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 131118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
618 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018


Increased flurry/light snow shower mention early this morning to
account for an area of light precipitation moving into the region
from the north. This is in association with the main mid level
shortwave/vort max. Once this precip dissipates later this
morning, we`ll likely see a short break before more diurnally-
driven showers/flurries develop late morning through the afternoon.



Breezy north winds will continue throughout the day today. Flight
conditions should generally remain VFR, though periodic snow
showers or areas of flurries are possible, with very brief periods
of visibility reduction. Any flurry activity should rapidly
dissipate as the sun begins to set.


.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 207 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018)


Today and Tonight...Forecast Confidence is High...

A lobe of vorticity associated with an upper low over Lake Huron
will rotate through the area early this morning. Little impact is
expected initially with this wave, but as colder air aloft
filters into the area later this morning, expect to see a decent
stratocu deck develop as lapse rates increase. Despite rather dry
low levels, spotty flurries may make it down to the surface
during the afternoon hours. This activity should be most
widespread east of I-90.

Temperatures today will be cooler compared to Monday, with highs
in the low 30s. It will remain rather breezy as well, with north
winds gusting between 20 and 25 MPH through much of the late
morning and afternoon.

Cloud cover should dissipate rather quickly as the
sun begins to set, with lows tonight falling into the upper teens
and low 20s.


Wednesday through Sunday...Forecast confidence is high:

High pressure will largely be in control of the weather the rest
of this week and through the weekend, bringing a continued stretch
of dry weather to southern Wisconsin. Low pressure will pass by to
the south Friday night, but models continue to trend southward
with this system, with only the Canadian suggesting any
precipitation in the forecast area.

Temps will be a few degrees above normal Wed under breezy
southwest winds, returning to around normal for late week. Should
see temps creep back up into the mid/upper 40s over the weekend.

Monday...Forecast confidence is medium:

Models are in decent agreement in bringing a low pressure system
through the region Monday into Monday night. While model agreement
of the timing of this system is pretty good considering it`s 6
days out, there`s less certainty with the track of the low. Models
have been trending southward and colder, which could put southern
Wisconsin in the path of some snow accumulations (mainly Mon
night). The ECMWF and Canadian have gone so far south though that
the precip with these solutions is only clipping the southern
forecast area. Still a lot of time for the details of this system
to change.

AVIATION(09Z TAF Update)...

Main concern through the rest of today will be surface winds, with
north winds expected to gust around 20 kt later this morning
through the afternoon hours. Cloud cover is expected to increase,
but should remain VFR. A few spotty, short lived snow showers or
flurries may also affect the terminals this afternoon.


Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through this evening. North
winds will increase through the morning today, with gusts to
around 25 kts from late morning through early evening. Waves will
range from 2 to 5 feet, with the higher waves near open waters.

Winds are expected to briefly become southwesterly Wednesday,
before turning northerly again Wednesday night into Thursday.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LMZ643>646.



Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Boxell
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