Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FNUS54 KMRX 171409 AAA
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...UPDATED
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over the next few
days as an upper disturbance slowly moves through the region.  A
more summertime pattern will return on Sunday and into the start of
the new work week with mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms
possible.  Temperatures through the period will remain nearly one
category below normal levels.



VAZ001-002-005-006-008-181515-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      79-84 (-4)   64-69 (-2)   75-80
RH % (24h trend)      57-62 (+5)   95-100 (+5)  71-76
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  6 G18                 SW  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  7 G17    LGT/VAR      SW  6
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     50           60           70
Precip duration       1            2            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.14         0.20         0.52
LAL                   3            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4500                      4500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2500                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)   SW 16                     SW 14
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    72000                     63000
Dispersion            35 Fair                   29 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  8 G18                 SW  6
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  9 G17    SW  6        SW  8

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 60. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. North winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to
lower 80s. East winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-181515-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      77-82 (-4)   62-67 (-1)   73-78
RH % (24h trend)      58-63 (+8)   95-100 (+8)  69-74
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  5                     LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     W  6 G15     LGT/VAR      W  6
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     60           60           70
Precip duration       2            2            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.14         0.12         0.59
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5500                      4700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2800                      1900
Transport wnd (mph)   W  9                      W 12
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    49500                     56400
Dispersion            21 Fair                   19 Gen poor
Max LVORI             4                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  6                     W  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     W  7 G15     SW  5        W  7

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s to upper 60s. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 80s. West winds less than
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. North
winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. East
winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-181515-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      75-80 (-6)   61-66 (-2)   73-78
RH % (24h trend)      62-67 (+5)   95-100 (+5)  69-74
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  6 G15                 SW  6 G17
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  7 G15    SW  6 G17    SW  8 G21
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     60           60           70
Precip duration       2            3            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.11         0.19         0.64
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    5400                      4800
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)   SW  9                     SW 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    48600                     72000
Dispersion            17 Gen poor               22 Fair
Max LVORI             5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  8 G15                 SW  8 G17
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  8        SW  8 G17    SW 11 G21

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
mid 50s to upper 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the mid 60s
to lower 80s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 60s to
mid 80s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the lower
60s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. Southwest winds up to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 80s. Northeast
winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the 60s to lower 80s. East winds
less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-181515-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      78-83 (-6)   64-69 (-3)   75-80
RH % (24h trend)      67-72 (+12)  95-100 (+5)  73-78
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  5                     SW  6 G15
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  7 G19
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     60           60           70
Precip duration       2            3            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.12         0.23         0.61
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4900                      3900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2900                      1900
Transport wnd (mph)   SW  9                     SW 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    44100                     58500
Dispersion            22 Fair                   25 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  6                     SW  7 G15
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  7        SW  5        SW  9 G19

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. North
winds less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 80s. East
winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-181515-
Nantahala National Forest-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      77-82 (-5)   63-68 (-2)   75-80
RH % (24h trend)      65-70 (+7)   95-100 (+3)  73-78
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     LGT/VAR                   SW  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      SW  5
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     60           70           70
Precip duration       2            3            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.09         0.24         0.59
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    6100                      4000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   3800                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)   SW  7                     SW 12
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    42700                     48000
Dispersion            23 Fair                   19 Gen poor
Max LVORI             5                         5
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  5                     SW  6
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  6        LGT/VAR      SW  6

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to
lower 80s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the lower
70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows around 60. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. North winds less
than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. East
winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-181515-
East Tennessee District East-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      81-86 (-4)   65-70 (-2)   77-82
RH % (24h trend)      56-61 (+5)   95-100 (+5)  68-73
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  5 G16                 SW  6 G16
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  7 G17    LGT/VAR      SW  8 G19
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     50           60           70
Precip duration       1            2            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.10         0.14         0.52
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4400                      4200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2900                      2700
Transport wnd (mph)   SW 13                     SW 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    57200                     63000
Dispersion            32 Fair                   35 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  7 G16                 SW  7 G16
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  9 G17    LGT/VAR      SW  9 G19

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds less
than 10 mph early in the evening becoming light.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to
mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. North winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to
lower 80s. Light winds.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-181515-
East Tennessee District West-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      80-85 (-4)   66-71 (-1)   78-83
RH % (24h trend)      62-67 (+4)   95-100 (+3)  69-74
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  5 G15                 SW  6 G17
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  7 G17    LGT/VAR      SW  8 G21
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     60           60           70
Precip duration       2            3            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.18         0.18         0.55
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    3700                      3700
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2400                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)   SW 14                     SW 15
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    51800                     55500
Dispersion            27 Fair                   32 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  7 G15                 SW  7 G17
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  9 G17    SW  5        SW 10 G21

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the 70s to
mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to lower 80s. North winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the lower 70s to
mid 80s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-181515-
Cumberland District South-
1009 AM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018 /909 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018/

                      Today        Tonight      Sat

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      80-85 (-6)   66-71 (-2)   79-84
RH % (24h trend)      62-67 (+6)   95-100 (+2)  68-73
20ft Wind-AM(mph)     SW  6                     SW  6 G15
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SW  6 G15    LGT/VAR      SW  8 G20
Precip type           Tstms        Tstms        Tstms
Chance precip (%)     60           60           70
Precip duration       2            3            3
Precip begin          8 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.27         0.23         0.65
LAL                   4            4            4
LASI/Haines           3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)    4000                      3500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*   2900                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)   SW 13                     SW 16
Vent Rate (mph-ft)    52000                     56000
Dispersion            30 Fair                   32 Fair
Max LVORI             4                         4
33ft wind-AM(mph)     SW  7                     SW  8 G15
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SW  8        SW  5        SW 10 G20

Remarks...None.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds
less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. South winds less
than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid 60s.
Highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to mid 80s. North winds
less than 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the 70s to mid
80s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$


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