


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK
981 FXAK68 PAFC 101313 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 513 AM AKDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Thursday through Saturday evening)... An upper-level ridge continues to exit the region to the northeast this morning as an upper-level trough over the AKPen slides east into the western Gulf. At the surface, an area of low pressure west of Sitkinak Island is pushing an occluded front into the southwestern Gulf and across Kodiak Island this morning. This is a rather potent storm system with widespread easterly gales developing along and ahead of the front. Out ahead of the front, a weaker surface trough is pushing into Prince William Sound, with bands of showers moving from around Middleton Island northwest toward Whittier. The coastal ridge is also still in place, allowing for both a tight pressure gradient and southeasterly gap winds to persist overnight and into the early morning hours. The aforementioned frontal system will continue to drive north today as a new, triple-point low spins up southeast of Kodiak Island. This new feature will help to bring a more northeast- southwest orientation to the surface front as it arrives along the Southcentral coast. This orientation should allow for southeasterly gap winds across the Copper River Basin to quickly taper off from east to west through the afternoon. Southeasterly, Turnagain Arm and Knik River Valley winds should redevelop, however, as there still remains a thermal trough north of the Alaska Range. These winds may only persist for a few hours, though, as the gradient eventually pulls any gap winds back down Cook Inlet by evening. Rain with this system will be rather widespread along the coast, as the east-southeasterly flow aloft drives moisture into the coastal mountains. Inland, a few weak upper-level waves moving inland by afternoon may allow for a few scattered showers from western Copper River Basin into the Susitna Valley. Winds along the coast and the inner waters diminish on Friday as the low and front weaken with most of the energy heading to Southeast Alaska. Precipitation also tapers off from the coast Friday. However, an easterly wave from Yukon, Canada will move west across the Copper River Basin Friday through Friday evening. Widespread showers are likely from McCarthy to Nabesna and northwestward to Paxson. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this activity along the north side of the Wrangell Mountains, eastern Alaska Range, the Talkeetna Mountains. Most of the area looks dry for Saturday, except some scattered showers developing along the terrain and mountain ranges Saturday afternoon. -TM/DAN && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday)... A low pressure system on the southern side of the Alaska Peninsula continues to bring light rain and gusty, offshore winds to the region as well as the Bristol Bay area. The presence of the low has spread much cloud cover over the area, inhibiting the development of afternoon convective systems and thunderstorms for interior Southwest Alaska. The Kuskokwim Delta will not see as much influence from the southern low pressure system, however will have the potential for light stratiform rainfall to develop through the next few days. In the Bering, in the western wake of the exiting low pressure system, a col has developed centered over about the Pribilof Islands. This feature will maintain the unsettled pattern over the area through the next few days, with persistent low stratus clouds covering much of the area. A weak low pressure system developing in the northwestern Bering Sea will steadily shift southeastward toward the Central Aleutians by Friday afternoon/evening. However, this system appears to lose much of its organization and strength by the time it arrives, bringing a showery light rainfall and weak winds to the area by the end of the workweek. Overnight and morning fog is expected to continue for areas along the coast including the Pribilof Islands through the end of this week. Northerly winds through the Aleutian gaps and passes are expected as the low exits, though as a weak ridge builds behind it, strong winds are not expected. Additionally, relatively gusty winds over the marine area of Bristol Bay will be present this afternoon and evening, winds not expected to exceed 25 mph. -CL && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)... Little change from previous discussion. The long term begins with a broad longwave trough over the Bering and Gulf with several shortwaves embedded within it. Over the Mainland, a strong ridge extends from the Chukchi Sea southeast into Southcentral. Through Tuesday the trough will shift east over the western half of the state and the Alaska Peninsula while a strong ridge develops over the AlCan, Yukon Territory and BC. The transition of the pattern from Saturday to Tuesday is messy, particularly with how the troughs will interact with the Interior ridging. Over the weekend we`re looking at a showery pattern over Southwest and over the mountains of Southcentral. Moving into the start of the work week next week models indicate a potentially wet system developing in the north Pacific and moving into the Southern Mainland. With the amplification of the pattern, there will be a tropical tap to the moisture moving north, so some areas will receive some moderate rain. Right now there is a large meridional spread in the storm track with varied impacts throughout the region. Additionally, there is a signal for a broad southwesterly flow to set up in the Bering, which may bring concerns to the Southwest coast. We will continue to monitor this. CJ/DD && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions to persist through the period. Gusty southeast winds may briefly diminish during the morning hours but will quickly resume this afternoon. Overall conditions relax later this evening closer to 06z as a broad area of low pressure lifts into the Gulf. This should reverse the pressure gradient, resulting in light and variable winds tonight. && $$