423
FXAK68 PAFC 071406
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKST Sat Mar 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

Key Messages:

* Snow showers linger across portions of Southcentral through the
  weekend.

* Strong northerly and westerly gap winds will develop along the
  coast beginning tonight.

* Another shot of arctic air will spill south beginning Saturday
  night. The combination of cold temperatures and winds could push
  wind chill values well below zero for many locations by Sunday
  night.

Discussion:


The area of low pressure responsible for the widespread wintry
precipitation and gusty winds across much of Southcentral
yesterday is getting pulled northwest from Prince William Sound
into the southern Susitna Valley this morning. The movement of
this low, and its attendant occluded front that has also moved
inland, is the result of a strong upper-level trough to the west,
becoming more negatively tilted overnight as it dives south across
the Alaska Peninsula and cuts off into a closed upper-level low.

A potent shortwave trough is rounding the base of this low, and is
providing the necessary energy, in conjunction with upper-level
diffluence ahead of the aforementioned upper-level low and
instability due to cold air advection, to drive a second round of
snow across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su
Valleys early this morning. The shortwave will stall as it moves
into the Susitna Valley this afternoon, then dig back to southward
as a secondary wave undercuts the first and moves east toward
Cordova. This Fujiwara effect between the two shortwaves will keep
enough instability across the coastal mountains and Cook Inlet
region for scattered snow showers to persist throughout the day
today.

The flow in the mid-level will likely dictate placement of the
steadiest snow showers, with a southwesterly flow up Cook Inlet
this morning becoming more westerly this afternoon then northerly
tonight. With this flow, expect the shower activity to move along
and over the front range of the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains
later today. Any residual snow showers will then likely move back
over Northern Cook Inlet for tonight. The southwesterly flow
across Kachemak Bay will also allow snow showers to persist for
those coastal communities through the day before becoming more
concentrated around Seldovia tonight into Sunday. The snow will
generally be light; however, two to four inches of additional
snow accumulation cannot be ruled out where snow showers persist.

Late tonight into early Sunday, the upper-level low will drive
south into the Gulf. In it`s wake, another shot of arctic air
will stream south, resulting in an increase in gap winds along the
coast and temperatures falling well below normal for this time of
year, similar to what was observed last week. Light snow will
also develop across the Copper River Basin prior the advancement
of the cold air, as a shortwave moves over the region along with
moisture from the southeasterly flow ahead of the digging low.

The gusty winds will likely peak late Saturday night into Sunday
for Kodiak, where gusts to 50 mph, combined with occasional snow
showers, are not out of the question for communities on the
island. For communities along the southcentral coast (e.g. Seward
and Whittier), expect gusty winds to also develop tonight with
peak overnight. A second peak of stronger wind gusts is likely
late Saturday night through Sunday with gusts to 50 mph possible.

-TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Monday)...

Following the departure of the early weekend storm system, cold
northerly flow has set up across Southwest Alaska and the Bering
Sea. Cloud streaks can be seen on satellite across the majority of
the Bering as cold air advection meets warmer sea surface
temperatures. To the east, the backside of the occluded low has
kept light snow showers over areas of Bristol Bay. Across the
region, gusty and cold winds persist, especially though wind-
prone wind gap areas, potentially lofting snowfall and reducing
local visibilities at times into the beginning of next week. This
pattern also favors persistent light snow showers across the
Alaska Peninsula into the Aleutians. Additional accumulations may
be light, but gusty winds in the area for the next few days may
loft snow creating moderate blowing snow potential.

The persistent northerly wind across the area has also developed
frigid wind chills for the Southwest. A Cold Weather Advisory
remains in effect for the Alaska Peninsula as wind chills drop to
10 below to 20 below zero through the weekend, beginning tonight.
A new Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the Kuskokwim
Delta, including the coast and interior, and the Western Capes of
Southwest for wind chills of 20 below to 40 below. Expect winds
closer to the shore to be stronger, and colder temperatures
inland. Across the Western Aleutians, however, a ridge of high
pressure will sneak in from the west and across the western- most
Aleutian Islands, letting them warm, while further developing the
northerly flow to the east over the rest of Southwest and Southern
Alaska through the weekend and into Monday. This pattern looks to
stay in place into next week.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure builds across
the Bering Sea through the forecast period. Strong northwesterly
flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and
cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening
coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through
the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below
normal temperatures through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...As a low tracks east of the airport today, snowfall
continues through late this morning with IFR conditions expected
for both ceilings and visibility expected. Variable light winds
will continue too through the afternoon hours. Total snow
accumulation into this afternoon ranges from 1 to 3 inches.


&&


$$