Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FXAK68 PAFC 150023
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Generally quiet weather is expected through Friday morning with
partly cloudy skies and scattered snow showers. Most of the snow
showers will be focused toward the Cordova and Valdez area through
tonight.

Higher precipitation amounts are expected from late Friday
through Sunday, as a strong front moves across Southcentral.
Though timing is coming into better agreement with moderate
confidence, confidence in the forecast outcome remains low as each
potential trajectory of the low and front will produce different
outcomes. What we know is that this system will bring stronger
winds, moderate to heavy precipitation, and warmer air with
generally southeasterly flow. The challenge with this forecast
continues to based on the push of warm air that would lead to
rain/snow mix or even a transition to entirely rain, who will
receive the highest amounts as mesoscale banding potential is
possible for the Cook Inlet communities, including west Anchorage,
and also how much easterly flow will dry the surface due to
downsloping for the Matanuska Valley, Anchorage, down to Kenai.
Keep monitoring for updates as the forecast is likely to change.

rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Longwave trough axis remains over Southwest Alaska with a upper
low just south of the eastern Aleutians. As this upper low moves
northward towards the Alaska Peninsula it will spawn a small
surface low, bringing low precipitation chances to coastal areas
such as Sand Point and Chignik.

A front extending off a mature low near Kamchatka continues to
push through the Western Aleutians, producing a mix of rain and
snow. As this front approaches ridging over the Bering, it will
slow down significantly but slowly weaken as it approaches the
central Aleutians late tonight into Friday, continuing areas of
light to moderate precipitation. A North Pacific low will then
approach the western Aleutians late Friday night into Saturday
morning with a rain and snow mix returning for the weekend.
Northerly flow initially will then turn more
northeasterly/easterly, with continued scattered snow showers
across much of the Aleutian Chain over the next few days.

Precipitation chances return to the Alaska Peninsula and portions
of southwest Alaska (mainly near the Aleutian and Alaska Ranges)
late Saturday into Sunday as a North Pacific low moves into the
western Gulf. However, confidence in the western extent of any
appreciable snow still remains low, with the GFS being the most
western solution, and the Canadian being the furthest east. The
current forecast package portrays a blend of the two solutions.

-ME

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Monday through Thursday...

A pair of high amplitude systems control the Alaskan weather
through the forecast period. A well developed upper level trough
over the Bering steers a number of shortwaves and their associated
North Pacific surface systems through the pattern. This will
bring more active weather across the Aleutians into Western
Alaska. A developing ridge expands to cover the Mainland portion
of the state, bringing warmer temperatures across the Interior.

A well developed North Pacific low Monday extends a front over
the Aleutians and moves through the Bering Tuesday and Wednesday
into the Chukchi Sea by Thursday. Gusty winds and locally heavy
precipitation accompany the system over the Aleutians Monday and
Tuesday, and across the Pribilofs late Tuesday into Wednesday. A
second well developed low approaches the Western Aleutians
Tuesday. Its front pushes across the Western Aleutians and Bering
to the Central Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula. Western Alaska and the
Pribilofs by Thursday. Areas along the West Coast of Alaska may
see changes from snow to rain with additional warmth coming up
with the Southerly Winds.

The remnants of a weakening low and front expends its rainfall
over the Copper River Delta through Monday, with snow diminishing
inland through the period. Warmer temperatures pump into the
Northern Interior through Thursday, with some significant daytime
heating expected.


Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Clouds will
move in early Friday morning as an upper level short-wave
approaches from the south. Models are hinting that there could be
some isolated fog over the Cook Inlet by 12Z, but if it does
develop...it looks to be short-lived as overall cloud cover
increases through the morning and ceilings begin to lower. There
could even be some nearby showers over the mountains and perhaps
some virga over the terminal.

&&


$$


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