Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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210 FXUS61 KAKQ 152035 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 435 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front moves across the area tonight. The front stalls across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night as high pressure moves across the area. Low pressure moves east across the Mid Atlantic region Saturday. High pressure builds back into the area Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Latest MSAS has the cold front apprchg from the nw and will cross the area (dry) tonight with only sct clouds. Otw, bcmg mstly clr and cold. Lows from the upr 20s nw to upr 30s sern beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mstly sunny Fri as high pressure builds back into the area from the nw. Another dry day but not as breezy as today except along the ern shore. Temps cooler as well. Highs mid-upr 40s across the ern shore and nrn neck, low-mid 50s elsewhere. The high moves offshore with the old frontal bndry stalling across the sern states Fri night. Moisture aloft overspreads the wrn half of fa after midnight. This to be mainly in the form of clouds as the lwr levels remain dry thru about 12Z Sat. Lows 25-30 north, 30-35 south. Low pressure tracks east across the region Sat with shwr chcs incrg thru out the day. Could see a rain/snow mix across the interior nrn zones at the onset btwn 12Z-15Z Sat, but most of the pcpn will be in liquid form. Chc pops in the morning with likely aftrn pops. Highs mid 40s ern shore to the mid 50s swrn most zones. The low pulls pulls offshore Sat eve with the trailing cold front pushing south into the Carolinas after midnight. Shower chcs during the evening gradually taper off and end north to south late. Pcpn remains in liquid form before the cold air arrives. Lows by 12Z Sun 30-35 north, mid-upr 30s south. High pressure over the area results in a dry Sunday. Mstly sunny with highs in the mid-upr 40s ern shore, 50-55 west of the bay. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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12Z/15 GFS and ECMWF models are generally in agreement thru most of the extended period, except the GFS is much stronger/deeper with low pressure and trough late Wed thru Thu. At this time, will continue to lean toward the ECMWF for the fcst. High pressure will be over the area, then slide offshore Sun night into Mon morning, maintaining dry wx. A couple of stronger low pressure areas will then affect the region late Mon into Tue night, bringing likely PoPs (at this time) for rain. One low lifts NE thru TN/KY and twd srn OH, while another low tracks acrs the SE U.S. and off the Mid Atlc coast while intensifying. Decreasing PoPs late Tue night and Wed, as the one low lifts thru ern OH, while the low off the coast starts to shift farther away to the ENE. Lingering slgt chance PoPs Wed night and Thu, with a few flurries or snow showers possible in the NW counties Wed night. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 50s Mon, range fm the upper 40s far NNW, to the lower 60s SE Tue, range fm the mid 40s to mid 50s Wed, and range fm the mid 40s to lower 50s Thu. Lows will range thru the 30s Sun night, in the upper 30s to upper 40s Mon night, in the mid 30s to lower 40s Tue night, and range thru the 30s Wed night.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mid/high level clouds assctd with a trof are moving east across the area attm. A weak but dry cold front crosses the area this evening. Thus, VFR conditions continue thru the forecast period. Main concern will be the gusty WSW winds over the next several hrs to the tune of 20-33 kts. Winds should diminish to less than 15 kts arnd sunset then aob 10 kts overnight under SKC skies. Outlook: Wind speeds increase 15-20kt Fri morn with gusts 20-25kt Fri aftrn. High pressure briefly builds into the area Friday night with a quick moving system bringing some sct showers and perhaps some brief flight restrictions on Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday. Low pressure approached from the SW Monday. && .MARINE... SCA conditions continue late this afternoon with mixing and gusty W/SW winds of 20 to 25 kt with a few gusts to near 30 kt. With sunset this evening winds will decouple and decrease at least temporarily. Because of this expect the SCA to be allowed to expire for the rivers, Currituck Sound and Coastal Waters south of Cape Charles at 7 pm. Seas has remained around 3 to 4 ft in the coastal waters with the offshore flow and 2 to 3 ft in the Bay. A reinforcing shot of cool air will drop tonight through Friday turning winds to the NW. Winds will also increase again especially across the Bay and coastal waters north of Cape Charles. Gusts to 30 kt will be possible Friday over the coastal waters from Chincoteague to Fenwick Island and over the northern Bay. For now it does not look like SCA conditions will extend south of the Mouth of the Bay. Winds should decrease later Friday night. High pressure briefly settles into the area on Saturday for NW winds around 10 kt becoming light and variable late. A weak wave of low pressure looks to pass across the NC/VA border late Sat night into Sun. However, sub- SCA conditions expected over the weekend. Most of next week looks remain unsettled with a couple more coastal lows possible over the coastal waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased fire danger statement out through 7 PM looks valid given current winds/rh values. Looking ahead, despite rh`s btwn 20-30% once again Friday, the winds will not be as strong along with cooler temps. Thus, will hold off on any fire statement attm and let later shifts evaluate the need for any fire weather related products. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent and modest offshore flow will allow water levels to approach -1 ft MLLW along the mid-Atlantic coast during low tide through Friday. && .EQUIPMENT... KDOX continues offline due to a transmitter upgrade. KAKQ has returned to normal operations. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 635>638-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...TMG AVIATION...MPR MARINE...JAO FIRE WEATHER... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ EQUIPMENT...AKQ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.