Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 181608 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1208 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A pair of low pressure systems will impact the region late Monday through Wednesday. High pressure builds into the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Pcpn assctd with last nights s/w is weakening as it moves south of the local area this morning. In its wake, high pressure to the NW results in a mstly sunny and seasonable day ahead. Highs 48-55 along the coast, 55-62 west of the Bay. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The high moves off the coast tonight. Meanwhile, a potent low pressure system and associated upper trough will cross the southern Plains, forcing a warm front to lift north through the Deep South. There will be an increase in moisture aloft locally overnight so that clouds will be on the increase early Monday morning and even becoming mostly cloudy across the Piedmont by daybreak. Lows mainly in the low-mid 30s. The high pushes farther offshore Monday and will be followed by overrunning pcpn by Monday afternoon and a chance for light rain, especially west of I-95. The arrival of the pcpn appears about 6 hrs slower than this time yesterday which won`t allow a true CAD setup to develop. Despite an overcast sky by afternoon for most locations, temps should be able to warm into the low- mid 50s west of the Bay, and mid-upr 40s to nr 50 Eastern Shore. QPF amounts during Monday generally aob one tenth inch. The potent shortwave races eastward from the southern plains Monday morning into the TN Valley by Monday evening, then into and through the local area Monday night. Widespread rain is expected Mon night as this system traverses the area. Will carry categorical pops all areas with some moderate to heavy rainfall possible after midnight. QPF amounts could exceed an inch of some areas. There could even be a couple of thunderstorms that develop along/south of the sfc low track as it crosses eastern NC early Tuesday morning, so have included a mention of thunder across NE NC then. Lows Monday night from the mid 30s north to mid 40s south. Sfc low deepens as it emerges off the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday morning, before pushing farther out to sea Tuesday afternoon as weak high pressure tries to nudge in from the N. Will carry likely to categorical PoPs Tues morning, except chc PoPs far SW, as the best lift shifts east prior to 18Z. Chc pops north and east with slight chc PoPs SW Tuesday afternoon. Although Tuesday will be chilly with highs 40-45 north, 50-55 se coastal areas, still expect all liquid pcpn. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The first few days of Spring will be more like Winter as deep/anomalous trough sets up invof ern CONUS. Using a blend of WPC/GFS/ECMWF the extended periods. Initial lo pres pulls slowly away from the coast Tue night...w/ trailing upper level system diving through the region Wed (w/ secondary lo pres developing invof SE VA-NC coasts). Partial thickness scheme gives rather hi potential for mixed ptype (SN/RA over many inland locations...mainly Wed/Wed eve). Way too soon to speculate on accums yet for Wed. However, due expect up to an 1" of snow to be possible from about Farmville to Louisa Tuesday night given current temp forecast and initial shot of colder air arriving aloft across the Piedmont. Drying out/chilly Wed night-Thu...remaining so through Fri. After that...the next lo pres system expected to approach from the W by Sat (bringing at least increasing cloudiness). Lows Tue night in the l-m30s inland...u30s/around 40F far SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed in the u30s inland...l40s coastal SE VA-NE NC. Lows Wed night in the u20s W to the m30s right at the coast. Highs Thu ranging through the 40s. Lows Thu night in the u20s W...m30s at the coast. Highs Fri around 50F W...m-u40s elsewhere. Highs Sat in the l50s inland...m-u40s at the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR conditions prevail across the region as high prs builds in from the NW. N-NE winds generally below 10 KTS. SKC along with light and variable winds continue through 12Z Mon. High level clouds overspread the area Mon mrning and afternoon ahead of the next systm apprchg from the SW. ANy pcpn with this system hold off until after 18Z Mon. Outlook: Another window of flight restrictions Mon night thru Wed as a pair of low pressure systems impact the area. Rain for the most part may mix with or change to wet snow by Wed at RIC and SBY. Gusty winds develop along the coast Tue and Wed as a coastal storm develops.
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&& .MARINE... Issued an MWS for ~20 kt gusts across the lower/middle Bay and lower James River through 9 am this morning as drier air/clearing and rising sfc pressure has allowed for a surge of winds. Do not expect this to last long enough to warrant SCA headlines. Winds diminish to 5 to 10 knots or less this afternoon while shifting to the E/NE and then to the south tonight. Conditions become much more unsettled Monday night through Wed night/Thu as the next low pressure system approaches from the TN Valley, then is progged to re-develop as a coastal low off the VA/NC coast Tuesday. The first low pushes off to the NE Tuesday afternoon and evening with yet another low expected to develop off the SE Coast and then rapidly intensify while pushing NE off the Mid- Atlantic coast Wed/Wed night. Have raised a Gale watch for coastal waters N of Cape Charles for late mon night/Tue as this is area with highest confidence at seeing sustained NE winds to ~30 kt and gusts to 35-40 kt. If the sfc low tracks a bit farther south, then Gales may also be needed all the way to the VA/NC border and into the mouth of the Bay/lower Bay. Still a lot of time to fine tune the forecast and will continue to monitor closely. Otherwise remaining quite active with at least strong SCA conditions persisting into Wed/Wed night and probably through late Thu or even Fri for elevated seas on the coastal waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low pressure approaches from the TN Valley on Monday, and intensifies just off the coast on Tue before pulling off to the NE. Secondary area of low pressure lags back off the SE coast and tracks NE off the mid-Atlc coast Wed/Wed night. This pattern will allow for a strong and persistent NE flow into much of the local area from late Mon into Wed, leading to building tidal departures and the potential for at least minor coastal flooding over locations adjacent to the lower Bay and the Atlc coast from Ocean City to Currituck NC. Current forecast projections give the greatest chance for flooding on Wed as the anomalies will take awhile to build Mon night through Tue. If the system(s) were to slow down, there is some potential for moderate flooding by Wed but that remains rather uncertain at this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MPR NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...ALB/JDM AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.