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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 051133
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will remain anchored over southeast Canada
through the weekend, bringing cold and blustery conditions to the
region, along with a few snow showers or flurries. The storm will
depart early next week as a high pressure ridge builds in from the
west, allowing for a significant warming trend to develop by the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATED...

As of 615 AM EST, patchy high/mid level clouds
continue across portions of the region, especially the southern
Adirondacks and southern VT. Boundary layer remains well mixed,
with northwest winds still gusting 25-35 mph in some areas.
Temps range from the single digits across portions of the SW
Adirondacks, with mainly mid teens to lower 20s elsewhere.

Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with clouds a bit
more prevalent for areas north of I-90, especially later this
afternoon as another weak upper level impulse approaches from
the north. Some snow showers/flurries may develop after 4 PM
for areas north of I-90.

Gusty northwest winds will continue today, with some gusts
possibly reaching 35-45 mph within portions of the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires this afternoon as mixing
depth increases, and 25-35 mph elsewhere.

Max temps generally in the mid teens to mid 20s, although some
lower 30s will be possible across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley and lower elevations in NW CT, where more sunshine and
warming contributions from downsloping off the Catskills are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight, aforementioned upper level disturbance and weak surface
trough will pass southward across the region through midnight,
with mostly cloudy skies, and isolated/scattered snow showers,
although snow showers will be more numerous across the SW
Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and eastern
Catskills, where some added lake moisture contribution will work
in tandem with the approaching upper level disturbance. Snowfall
accumulations of 1-2 inches will be possible across portions of
northern Herkimer County, where snow showers should be most
frequent, with perhaps up to an inch across central/southern
Herkimer County and western Schoharie County. Also, up to an
inch or two could occur across favorable upslope areas of SW VT.
Elsewhere, scattered coatings will be possible as snow
showers/flurries occur, possibly extending into the Hudson River
Valley at times. After midnight, snow showers should decrease in
coverage as the disturbance passes, although may linger across
Schoharie County and eastern Catskills. Remaining brisk
overnight, with lows by daybreak in the single digits and teens.

Saturday, another blustery day, with max temps only reaching the
teens and 20s for most areas (except lower 30s for the mid
Hudson Valley). West/northwest winds may reach 25-35 mph within
the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and Berkshires, especially
during the afternoon hours. Some breaks of sun will be possible
in the morning, before convective temperatures are reached and
clouds develop for the afternoon. Some flurries/isolated snow
showers will also be possible in the afternoon, especially for
higher elevations.

Some clearing is possible Saturday night, which could allow for
localized decoupling and colder temps dropping into the single
digits below and slightly above zero (especially portions of the
southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley), with teens
elsewhere.

For Sunday-Sunday night, one last upper level impulse looks to
pass across the region with some patchy high/mid level clouds,
otherwise a bit less wind compared to Saturday. Max temps should
reach the mid 20s to lower 30s for most valley areas (except
possibly mid/upper 30s for the mid Hudson Valley). Mainly clear
Sunday night, and where winds trend to near calm, temps may fall
to between zero and 10 below across portions of the southern
Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley, with mainly single digits
and teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As the large upper level trough over Atlantic Canada finally pulls
away from the region, rising heights and warming temp aloft will
occur to start the week on Monday into Tuesday.   Although there may
be some clouds at times thanks to stubborn low-level moisture
trapped beneath an inversion, skies will probably still wind up
averaging out to partly cloudy for both Monday and Tuesday.  With
the upper level ridging in place and surface high pressure located
south of the area over the Southeast, no precip is expected. Temps
will start out close to normal for Monday with mid 30s to low 40s
for valley areas, but will be noticeably milder by Tuesday,
with highs reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s across the entire
area.

Wednesday will be even milder, as the low to mid level flow will be
out of the southwest and 850 hpa temps rise to around +5 C.  The one
question is how many clouds will be around, as some moisture will
start approaching ahead of the next frontal boundary.  It looks like
while there may be some clouds, it should stay precip-free.  Temps
will reach the mid to upper 50s for much of the area, which should
allow for plenty of snowmelt, as dewpoints also rise above freezing.

Depending on the exact timing of the next frontal boundary, there
could be some rain showers that finally move into the area by
Wednesday night or Thursday.  P-type will certainly be only plain
rain, as mild temps both aloft and at the surface will ensure no
frozen/freezing precip, even at the higher elevations.  It is still
unclear how much precip occurs as it will depend on how fast the
boundary moves through the area.  Thursday has the potential to be
another very mild day depending on how quickly the next front moves
into the area, just how much cloud cover is around and how much rain
occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level trough located over eastern Canada continues to expand
southward across the Northeastern US. This trough has been
allowing for some patchy stratocu and some mid level altostratus
clouds this morning, mainly around KGFL and KALB.

Through the day today, flying conditions will continue to be
VFR for all TAF sites. Clouds may decrease somewhat during the
morning hours, but should increase again by the late day hours
around 4-6 kft. Winds will continue to be gusty from the west-
northwest, generally sustained at 10 to 20 kts with gusts of
25-30 kts, especially for KALB/KPSF.

Winds may start to diminish slightly for tonight, but it still
will be fairly breezy, with w-nw winds around 10 kts. Flying
conditions should remain VFR, with cloud coverage slowly
decreasing through the night.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Cold and mainly dry conditions are expected through the
weekend. With temperatures below freezing most of the time and a
dry airmass in place, little snowmelt is expected through
Sunday and river and stream levels should generally hold fairly
steady through the weekend, with ice remaining in place.

During next week, temperatures will moderate, becoming above
normal by the middle and end of the week. It should continue to
be dry for the early to middle portion of the week. Rivers and
streams may show some diurnal fluctuation in flows during next
week due to the expected melting of the snowpack. There also
could be some rain showers later next week, although expected
rainfall amounts remain very uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
HYDROLOGY...KL/NAS