Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KALY 011831 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 131 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening. A much colder air mass, strong to damaging wind gusts along with scattered snow showers and squalls will occur behind the front. A cold night in store tonight with dangerous wind chills, especially in the higher terrain. The blustery and cold conditions will persist into Tuesday as an area of high pressure builds into the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High Wind Warning in effect for the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys, northern Catskills, Helderbergs and the Capital District from 1 PM today to 1 PM Tuesday... Wind Advisory in effect for the rest of the area from 1 PM today to 1 PM Tuesday... Wind Chill Advisory in effect for the western/southern Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County, eastern Catskills, southern Green Mountains and Berkshires tonight into Tuesday morning... .UPDATE...As of 118 pm, the cold front has passed through just about the entire forecast area, with westerly winds kicking up behind it. 25-40 mph gusts are common already along the I-90 corridor. Temps will drop steadily from here on out. The PoPs were tweaked to better represent the lull between the rain showers within the deeper moisture that is exiting to the east and the anticipated snow showers/squalls for later this afternoon into the evening in concert with the powerhouse midlevel vort max and 850 mb cold air advection steepening lapse rates and enhancing lake moisture transport. Per latest CAMs, best time frame for show showers/squalls looks to be 22Z-05Z. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION [0357]...Temperatures will briefly warm prior to cold advection resulting in dropping temperatures later in the day. Highs will range from the mid/upper 30s in the Adirondacks/southern Greens to lower/mid 40s elsewhere. Temps will fall first to the north/west of the Capital District by early afternoon, and from Capital District south/east mid to late afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest and steadily increase becoming strong/gusty in wake of the cold front. Of greater concern is a secondary cold front (Arctic front) that will move through from NW to SE during the late afternoon to evening. This front will result in 1) strong to damaging winds, 2) potential for snow squalls and 3) bitter cold temperatures/dangerous wind chills. 1) The potential for strong to damaging winds will develop by late this afternoon and especially into the evening as mixing heights are forecast to rise to around 700 mb. This will increase the mixing potential, with forecast soundings indicating around 50-60 kt of wind at the top of the mixing layer. Thus there is increasing confidence of widespread strong/damaging winds. Targeting an area of damaging wind result in a High Wind Warning, winds should accelerate down the Mohawk/Schoharie Valley into the Capital District with the NW flow with gusts of 55-60 mph. Elsewhere, have expanded the Wind Advisory to include the rest of the area for gust potential of 45-55 mph. While wind will not be at max values the entire evening/night, convective snow squalls will have potential to bring down the strong winds to the surface along with cold advection/mixing processes. 2) There is the potential for some snow squalls to develop from NW to SE along and just behind the Arctic cold front mainly from early to late evening. As mixing heights increase, there should be sufficient moisture to around 700 mb for scattered low-topped convective snow squalls. Most of the activity will be slightly later than the evening commute, with the timing threat between around 6 PM to 11 PM. Hi-res guidance indicating scattered coverage of multi- band squalls with the NW flow and front orientation. Somewhat limited moisture should preclude more widespread development. Time of day will be unfavorable for widespread impacts, but could still result in some hazardous travel so will continue mention in HWO. Snowfall will be around a half to one inch with the squalls. 3) A bitterly cold air mass (850 mb temp anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV) combined with the strong winds will result in dangerously cold wind chills of -15 to -29 across mainly higher terrain areas. Wind chills will still be quite low outside the Advisory area, generally zero to -14. Actual air temps will be well below normal with single digits to near 15 above for most of the area, except 0 to 5 below in the Adirondacks. Snow showers/squalls should diminish after midnight, although a few lake effect/upslope snow showers will still be possible west of the Hudson Valley.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Cold, dry and blustery/windy conditions will persist into Tuesday, as high pressure will gradually build eastward by mid/late afternoon. Until then, strong winds, bitterly cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will persist. The aforementioned High Wind Warning, Wind Advisory and Wind Chill Advisory will all continue through either Tuesday morning or early afternoon. The strongest winds will be early Tuesday morning, with a gradual decrease. It will still be gusty through the day though, as the high does not build in until late. Cold temps (upper 10s to 20s for highs) along with the gusty winds will make it feel like mid-winter. While it will still be cold Tuesday night, winds will be much lighter and temps won`t be quite as cold with lows mainly in the 10s. It will be continued dry across most of the area, except for the western Adirondacks where some light snow will be possible with some warm advection developing associated with a clipper-type cyclone tracking from southern Ontario into southern Quebec. As the clipper tracks SE into northern New England on Wednesday, it will drag a cold front across the region. With limited moisture, will only mention slight/low chance of snow showers for favored upslope areas north/west of the Capital District. Air mass modifies considerably ahead of the clipper/cold front, with temps expected to warm into the 30s(mountains) to 40s(valleys). && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended period will be dominated by an upper level trough over the Northeastern US, as a large upper level low slowly sits and spins across eastern Canada. A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected for Thursday as another Arctic boundary moves through the region. While limited moisture should prevent much precip from occurring with the front, 850 hpa temps will be -15 to -19 C behind the front for Thursday night into Friday morning. Behind the front, there could be some lake effect that develops, but the northwest flow should keep most of the activity centered across central NY. Will keep some slight to low chc POPs for our far western areas, but most of the activity should remain west of the region, with little accumulation expected for the western Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks and Schoharie County. After lows in the 20s for Wed night, highs will be cooler for Thursday (compared to Wednesday), with temps only reaching into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Northwest winds will be somewhat gusty as well, making it feel even colder. Lows will fall into the single digits and teens for Thursday night as the core of the cold air aloft moves across the area and winds will continue to remain breezy into the overnight. Despite a partly sunny sky, temps will only reach the mid 20s to low 30s for most spots on Friday, averaging about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early March. Over the weekend, it will continue to be dry across the area, as any lingering lake effect snow showers should continue to mainly impact western and central New York and skies will continue to be partly cloudy. With some sun expected, daytime temps look to reach the 30s in valley areas, with teens during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ongoing MVFR ceilings at ALB and PSF are expected to improve to VFR between now and 20 UTC with VFR conditions continuing at GFL and POU. Then, a strong arctic cold front will arrive this evening mainly 01 - 05 UTC/Tuesday with snow showers or even some brief snow squalls possible. Best chance for snow squalls looks to be at GFL, ALB and PSF. During any snow squalls or strong snow showers, MVFR or brief IFR ceilings and visibilities may be possible. Due to low confidence of the exact placement of any snow squalls, we decided to only show MVFR conditions in the TEMPO group for this period. Westerly winds this afternoon will remain breezy sustained between 10 and 20 kts with gusts to 25 to 30kts at ALB, GFL and PSF. POU will not be as strong only sustained around 5-10kts. However, by 00 to 05 UTC/Tuesday, expect winds to shift to the northwest and become very strong. Sustained winds will range 15 to 25kts with gusts to 30 to 45kts. The strongest wind gusts are expected at ALB and PSF where brief gusts up to 50kts cannot be ruled out during this time period. After 05 UTC/Tuesday, strong winds will continue with sustained winds 10 to 20kts and gusts to 30-40kts possible through 10-12 UTC. After 12 UTC, winds will gradually weaken through the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are expected through the upcoming week. Some melting and sublimation of the snowpack in the valleys is expected during the day time over the next several days with the exception of Tuesday. NERFC forecasts show minor up and down changes in river flows due to the diurnal freeze/thaw cycle. River ice is not expected to break up over the next several days. Mainly rain continues to fall overnight into the morning hours ahead of a cold front. (some small pockets of frozen precipitation across the highest terrain). Total QPF for this system should range from around 0.10 to 0.30 of an inch. A strong cold front with snow showers and squalls, will move across the area this afternoon into tonight. Much colder air returns tonight and Tuesday, with sub-freezing temperatures expected to linger into Wednesday morning. Mainly dry weather is expected for the remainder of the week, with below normal temperatures. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ001-013. NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-041>043- 054-059>061-063>066-082>084. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038-047-058-063. High Wind Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>040- 047>053-058. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-042-082. MA...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001-025. VT...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015. Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013-014. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...Thompson/JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.