Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 181638 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1238 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain below normal through the coming week. However, our weather will also be fairly quiet, with high pressure mostly in control. There is a small chance for some snow to skim by the Poconos and Catskills Tuesday into Wednesday, but at this time it appears more likely that the system will stay southeast of our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1230 pm update... Just minor tweaks to sky cover and temperature grids required at this time. Satellite imagery at midday shows a narrow band of mainly mid- level clouds extending down into parts of CNY, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere across the forecast area. We expect the above mentioned clouds to overspread areas of CNY near and east of the I-81 corridor, but also thin out a bit this afternoon. For these areas, mostly cloudy-partly sunny skies are foreseen, with generally sunny skies elsewhere. It will be another fairly cold day for mid-March, with highs ranging from the upper 20s-near 30 over the higher terrain of the Catskills and in parts of Otsego/Oneida, to the upper 30s- lower 40s over portions of the Finger Lakes region and NEPA. Previous discussion... 310 AM Update... The near term will feature cold yet quiet weather, as ridges of dry high pressure are separated only by a weak moisture-starved front that will pass through the area late today into tonight. It has taken awhile for decoupling to occur due to pressure gradient that still exists over the area. However, surface ridge is now poking in over the region which is slackening the wind and allowing for window of radiational cooling up to dawn this morning. As expected, there is a quite a spread in temperatures, and the coldest readings are in the northeastern zones. At this hour Woodgate in the far corner of Oneida County has actually hit zero. Single digit temperatures can be found peppered in pockets of Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Otsego counties. Most locations of Central New York are in the teens, while for Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY 20s are more common. Upstream, GOES-16 satellite imagery shows evidence of our next weak wave, now dropping through Ontario with a deck of clouds a few to several thousand feet above ground level. A decent amount of sunshine can still be expected for our area today, though these clouds will encroach across Central NY this afternoon, and into Northeast PA tonight, before scattering out as another high pressure ridge takes over on Monday. A stray flurry is not totally impossible tonight as the subtle front slips through, but overall moisture appears limited enough to make a mention of flurries not even worth placing into the forecast. Highs today will range from around 30 northeast to mid 30s-mid 40s for Finger Lakes-Southern Tier NY and especially Northeast PA where mildest readings will be found. Tonight will be similar to this morning; lows ranging from single digits far northeast to teens-lower 20s elsewhere. Weak cool air advection behind the weak front Monday, will be counterbalanced by abundant sunshine to still allow temperatures to hit upper 20s- near 30 north, to lower 30s-lower 40s central and south. This will be about 7-14 degrees shy of climatological average highs. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest suite of model runs indicate both coastal storms will remain far enough south and east to have very little impact in local area. Monday night into Tuesday, mid level wave will move through the mid Atlantic region with surface low tracking from the Tennessee valley and off the Delmarva coast. This system will then lift northeast and well out to sea while the next upper level wave digs through the southeast states with resulting secondary surface low forming over the southeast and tracking northeast off the North Carolina coast. The ECMWF remains farther south with both systems compared to the GFS. Will continue with just slight chance/chance pops through the period across the far southeast forecast area. High pressure over eastern Canada will make for a very tight moisture gradient with soundings showing plenty of low level dry air. At this time it looks as if the Poconos and perhaps the southern Catskills could see a few tenths of snowfall. Will remove mention of storm from HWO. Otherwise it will remain dry across the region with a continuation of cold temperatures. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Wednesday night through Friday night looks quiet with surface high pressure over eastern Canada. Temperatures will run about 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals. Saturday through Sunday, low pressure will move from the mid west across the Ohio Valley and through the mid Atlantic region. The GFS is faster with this system than the ECMWF. Will carry chance/slight chance pops through the period with the highest pops in the southern forecast area. Precipitation type will be primarily light snow although during the afternoon periods the snow could mix with rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to around 40 in valley areas. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure and a dry atmosphere will mostly yield quiet conditions through the TAF period. However, the only exception is that a weak shallow cool front will slip over the area late today into tonight, allowing a VFR deck of clouds to drop north to south over the area, initially in the 5-7 kft agl range. Eventually tonight, high end MVFR ceilings will be realized at KBGM- KITH-KELM and even KAVP late, but probably not dipping quite into MVFR for KSYR-KRME. Ceilings will tend to scatter out as we head into Monday. Light and variable wind early this morning, will become NW 4-8 knots late morning through afternoon before slacking in evening. Outlook... Monday through Monday night...VFR. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Small chance of snow and restrictions at KAVP on Tuesday; system probably staying south. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MLJ/MDP SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...MDP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.