Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 160958 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 458 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will move east through the Mid-Atlantic states today, and offshore Monday. This low pressure system will bring mixed precipitation to the region. Another cold front moves through on Monday with snow showers. High pressure then builds into the region for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 4 am update... Rain over NEPA, Sullivan County, and central southern tier slowly lifting northeast. By noon should be almost to the NYS thruway. Tricky forecast with temperatures around freezing. Some warming will occur in the far north before it gets there. Also up there amounts will be lighter (under a quarter inch) than across the southern tier NY and NEPA. QPF in NEPA and Sullivan County NY of half an inch to an inch. Even if this were to all run off today rivers and streams are not expected to flood. Most of the snow we had is gone and rivers have been slowly falling all week. Highs in the mid and upper 30s. For now probably only freezing rain across the highest terrain. Also in Steuben where temperatures are colder than NEPA. Close call in the Finger Lakes with temperatures around freezing now but rising slightly as the mixed precipitation comes in after sunrise. Soundings show low levels saturating and cooling to around freezing as the rain moves in. Sleet is possible with these colder low levels and warmer air aloft. Ice amounts of up to 2 tenths will be highest across the higher terrain east of I81. Snow and sleet also heaviest in the same area but only up to an inch. As the storm reaches the coast this afternoon, precipitation tapers off from west to east. Also colder air aloft should change anything to snow before ending. Snow amounts this afternoon will be less than half an inch. Precipitation pulls out of the far east in the evening. Late tonight will be mainly dry. Lows 25 to 30. Monday starts off dry as the storm moves further east off Cape Cod. A strong short wave and cold front drops southeast into our region midday with snow. Moisture is lacking with a saturated layer under 10k ft. During the afternoon with the colder air snowfall rates will increase as the dendrite zone drops into the saturated layer. Snow showers will be convective in nature during the afternoon with steep low level lapse rates. Snowfall amounts during the day will be mostly under an inch, but higher terrain south of Syracuse could get two inches. High temperatures in the 30s. Windy afternoon conditions of 10 to 25 mph with higher gusts. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 355 AM Update... Cold conditions are expected in the short term, with lake effect snow showers Monday night diminishing to flurries early Tuesday before ending. Brisk northwest flow and cold air advection continue Monday night, with a veering trajectory becoming too sharp to involve moisture from further upstream in Georgian Bay. The air mass will thus have a short residence time over a progressively shorter axis across Lake Ontario, and dewpoints will crash into the teens by dawn Tuesday. Perhaps up to an inch of fluff could occur for some areas southeast of Lake Ontario, to as far south as a Cortland-Norwich-Oneonta- Delhi line, but otherwise expect scattered snow showers to diminish to flurries by Tuesday morning as moisture becomes limited and shallow. Lows will be in the mid teens to lower 20s for most locations. Northwest winds will gradually diminish during the day Tuesday, with dry air mass allowing for at least partial sunshine to be realized especially in afternoon. Highs will be generally 20s- near 30. Good radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night should send most locations into the teens for lows, though a few single digits are not out the question especially for typically colder pockets east of I-81 in Central NY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 355 AM Update... Little change in theme to the long term as already discussed below. A warming trend that also comes with likely rain, before cooler air returns over the weekend. Previous discussion... A warming trend starts Wednesday, under mostly sunny skies, with highs 35-40. Remaining dry with some increasing clouds Wednesday night as a southerly flow develops ahead of the next weather system. Not as cold, with lows in the mid to upper 20s. A significant storm system then approaches and moves through the area later Thursday through Saturday. Current model guidance is in fairly good agreement that a high amplitude, neutral to negatively tilted trough will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday morning. The upper level trough eventually closes off at 500mb, and moves through the Tennessee Valley/Central Appalachians Friday. Surface cyclogenesis occurs, with a rapidly deepening surface low moving into the lower Ohio Valley. There are indications for a secondary surface reflection east of the Appalachian Mtns in at least some of the guidance...but it seems, at this point at least, that the primary low will track well west of our area toward Lake Erie by Friday. Current guidance strengthens the low to around 980-985mb by 00z Saturday, west of Buffalo, over southern Ontario. As for sensible weather, with this type of low track expect rain to develop from south to north late in the day Thursday, then overspread the entire area Thursday night. A strong southerly low level jet and mid level dry slot would then move over our area Friday, with still enough lift around for on and off showers. Temperatures would be very mild, with lows only in the mid to upper 30s Thursday night, then potentially rising well into the 40s or even lower 50s during the day Friday. South winds could be breezy at times. Current projections indicate rainfall amounts between half an inch and one inch. As colder air finally wraps around the system Friday night and Saturday, lingering showers would mix with and change over to snow showers. Overnight lows slowly fall into the low to mid-30s Friday night, with rather steady temperatures through the day Saturday as cold air advection strengthens overhead. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1240 am update... Ceilings to start are VFR but will fall to MVFR as mixed precipitation moves in this morning. This afternoon conditions will fall to IFR due to vsby, cigs, or both. Slow improvement this evening especially vsbys as precipitation ends. At AVP rain has started and cigs/vsbys will fall to MVFR at 10z, then at 13z to fuel alternate cigs and IFR vsbys. This afternoon cigs also fall to IFR. Some sleet could mix in. At 00z snow and rain with MVFR then 04z only MVFR cigs with no precip. BGM falls to MVFR at 11z with freezing rain and sleet which continues into the afternoon. At 20z IFR cigs/vsbys in mostly light snow. At 03z vsbys improve but cigs remain IFR in snow showers. ELM/ITH similar with MVFR vsbys in fog now. When precip starts cigs fall to MVFR. This afternoon vsbys could fall to IFR with fuel alternate MVFR cigs. Improvement at ELM this evening in snow showers but probably not ITH. SYR currently VLIFR due to cigs and IFR vsbys. I have no explanation with nothing around them anywhere that low. Expect improvement to VFR by 08z but low confidence. Mixed precip comes in at 17z with MVFR. At times vsbys could fall to IFR. Snow showers and MVFR this evening. RME VFR until mixed precip starts at 18z, then at times IFR vsbys and fuel alternate cigs until 23z. Evening snow showers with MVFR. East winds at 5 kts to start slowly turn to the north tonight. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...Possible restrictions in snow showers, especially NY terminals. Wednesday and Thursday...Likely VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for PAZ040- 048-072. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ038-039. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for NYZ009- 036-037-045-046-057-062. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ015>018-022>025-044-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MJM/MDP AVIATION...TAC

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