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481
FXUS61 KBGM 111901
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the northeast, and a blocked pattern aloft
over the central United States will persist through the rest of
the week. As a result, there will be an extended period of dry
conditions and warming temperatures lasting through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

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255 PM Update

High pressure remains over the area through the near term
period. Skies will remain mainly sunny/clear through Thursday
night. There will be good radiational cooling once again
tonight, and decided to blend in some of the cooler NBM 25th
and NBM 10th percentile guidance to give lows ranging from the
mid-40s to mid-50s. Valley fog will be a good bet again after
midnight and it could be locally dense toward daybreak. The fog
will once again burn off by 9-10 AM Thursday morning, yielding
more sunshine and very warm temperatures. Highs look to reach
the upper 70s to mid-80s with low humidity levels in the
afternoon. Much of the same for Thursday night with more valley
fog along the rivers and not quite as cool.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

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255 PM Update

No significant changes to the short term forecast with this
update. It will be a sunny and very warm end to the week and
week end with a large upper level ridge in place overhead. Highs
will be in the 80s with overnight lows in the 50s to near 60.

As the remnants of Francine slowly drifts northward after
landfall, it will strengthen the ridge overhead. The remnant low
looks to stall and slowly drift around in the southern US
leading to a rex block that keeps strong ridging and high
pressure in place for the late week into the weekend.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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255 PM Update

No significant changes to the extended forecast with the latest
guidance. Dry and very warm weather continues Sunday through Tuesday.

The next chance for some light rain looks to arrive by
the middle of next week as a trough slowly approaches from the
west/south. Temperatures gradually decrease heading into next
week as a more easterly flow becomes established, potentially
bring in some maritime air. Overall, temperatures still remain
well above average into at least early next week, then fading
closer to average by midweek with more clouds around...and
perhaps some showers as noted above.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
1240 PM Update

VFR conditions and mainly clear skies will prevail into the
evening hours areawide.

However, valley fog is likely once again at ELM, so IFR/LIFR
restrictions are in the TAF after 06-09z Thursday. Used a
persistence forecast, combined with the latest guidance for the
fog forecast here. Below ALT minimums, and even tempo below
airport minimums are possible in the dense fog around daybreak
or shortly there after. IFR conditions are forecast to persist
until around 1330z Thursday morning at ELM, before the fog
quickly dissipates and it returns to VFR.

VFR conditions are expected to persist elsewhere through the
overnight and right into the day on Thursday. There is a low
chance for some patchy fog near RME, ITH, BGM and AVP around
daybreak, but not enough probability to include in the tafs.

Surface winds will be light and variable under 10 kts.

.Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; valley fog
possible most mornings with restrictions at ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/MPH
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...AJG/MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MJM