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000
FXUS61 KBGM 090748
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Much warmer weather is expected for the next several days with
temperatures climbing well above normal. Though dry conditions
persist for now, chances for rain showers will increase late
Thursday into Friday from a passing cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
245 AM Update...
Significant warming will get going during these next couple of
dry days, though with another chilly night in between.

Weak warm front-cool front tandem is passing through the area
early this morning, with too much dry air for measurable
precipitation despite radar echoes which has been generally
virga. However, the cool front will be quite shallow, struggling
halfway or so southward through the area before the March sun
angle mixes it out and allows milder temperatures later today.
So after starting around 30-40 degrees, we will manage highs of
lower 40s-lower 50s. Initial shallow post-frontal stratocumulus
will tend to break up and lift back northward especially during
the afternoon.

Very dry air mass will radiate quickly under high pressure in
the evening to get lows into the 20-32 degree range with coldest
temperatures underneath a shallow surface-based inversion in
the valleys; a few spots could find their way into teens.
However, warm air will be advecting in just off the surface as
upper ridge builds; sharpening and lowering the inversion and
perhaps even allowing patches of valley fog pressed underneath.

On Wednesday, warmer air mass becomes realized quickly as
sunshine mixes it down. Some high thin ridge-cresting cirrus
moves in late in the day, but not before areawide hits at least 50s
other than highest elevations. Valleys of Finger Lakes/Central
Twin Tiers could even manage 60 degrees in a few spots. It will
be the warmest day since at least Christmas; or in the case of
Syracuse, probably even since late November. The funny thing is,
an even warmer day will follow. Why hello there, Spring!

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
2 pm update...
Wednesday night into Thursday rain slowly approaches from the
northwest ahead of a slow moving cold front. This associated
with surface low pressure moving northeast into the western
Great Lakes. Rain showers may move into the far north late
Wednesday night with low chance pops. The pops don`t increase
much in the morning then increase late in the day to high chance
for the Finger Lakes and western Mohawk Valley. Rain amounts
will be under a tenth of an inch before 7 PM. In the Catskills
and northeast PA it will remain dry.

The southerly flow continues Wednesday night keeping temperatures
warm with lows from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Dewpoints will be in
the mid and upper 30s helping to ripen the snow but winds will be 10
mph or less. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week now with
highs in the 60s. Snow will ripen more Thursday as dewpoints rise
into the 40s and southwest winds rise to 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 PM Update...

A weak cold front begins to move through Thursday night
bringing a chance of rain to the area. PoPs remain highest
across most of CNY with Likely PoPs north of I-86. Temps will
remain mild overnight, only dropping into the 40s. Rain
continues Friday morning but PoPs begin to decrease by Friday
afternoon as rain shower activity deteriorates. Guidance
increased the daytime temps a little bit higher than the
previous update. With the morning cloud cover, daytime heating
will be limited to the afternoon, so daytime high temps were set
a degree below guidance. Even still, temps will top out in the
50s and maybe some low 60s in NEPA. By late Friday evening, the
cold front and rain move through, resulting in dry conditions
overnight. Overnight temps will fall to the 20s and 30s. QPF
totals will be less than a quarter of an inch.

There is another slight chance for some precipitation late Friday
night and into early Saturday morning. A weak front to our south and
a weak system that sweeps across the Great Lakes could bring some
rain then wintry mix or snow to most of the area with South-Central
NY staying dry. Any accumulations will be light. Both of these
systems are short lived though and quickly move out by Saturday
afternoon as high pressure moves into the area. As colder air moves
in, Saturday will feel more seasonable with daytime temps in the
upper 30s and low 40s. Overnight temps will fall to the 20s.

The dry trend continues through Sunday with mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain seasonable to finish out the
weekend. A cool, wet start to next week is possible as another
system approaches the area, but a lot of uncertainty remains on the
timing of the event.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A passing warm front will carry west-southwesterly low level
wind shear of 35-45 knots going a few more hours during the
predawn this morning. Clouds will also gradually lift southwest
to northeast out of the region later this morning to mid
afternoon. At this point only KRME appears likely to briefly dip
into MVFR ceiling for a period late morning-midday, though
barely, before joining all terminals at VFR for duration of this
TAF set. Variable/light southwest winds, veer northwesterly
around 5-8 knots into this afternoon before slackening to light
and variable in the evening.

Outlook...

Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR, though
including a small and uncertain chance for fog at KELM early
Wednesday morning.

Thursday through Friday...occasional restrictions possible in
scattered rain showers, especially Thursday night-early Friday.

Friday night through Saturday...Small chance for lake effect
snow showers/brief restrictions KSYR-KRME, otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding is possible late this week due to mostly snowmelt
across the north branch Susquehanna in CNY and the west branch
of the Delaware River. Temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s
Wednesday to Friday. Dewpoints are above freezing, peaking in
the 40s. Winds are mostly light and around 10 mph. Snow will
ripen quickly Wednesday then slowly melt. Where the snow water
equivalent is low such as the Chemung and Finger Lakes streams
and rivers will rise but not flood. Snowmelt runoff across the
headwaters of the north branch Susquehanna, Delaware headwaters,
and Oneida Lake basin could amount to several inches of liquid.
This runoff will be over a long period from late Wednesday into
Friday night so streams and rivers will rise slowly.

Rainfall with a cold front Friday will be brief and light with
amounts under half an inch. For a major flood several inches of
rain would be needed which is not at all likely.

As the flood threat nears more details will be given. Flood
watches and warnings could also be issued later this week.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MDP
HYDROLOGY...TAC