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727
FXUS61 KBGM 250530
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
130 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly clear our skies overnight leaving a
partly cloudy and cool night. A front approaching from the Great
Lakes will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
area Saturday and Sunday, but most of the time will be rain
free. High pressure will build back into the area for a dry
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

Only minor adjustments to the near term forecast with the
evening and midnight updates. Did add in some patchy fog for a
few hours late tonight as the area sees good radiational
cooling, down near the dew point (and light winds). Otherwise,
no major changes in the latest guidance for the
convection/thunderstorm activity on Saturday; although it seems
the activity could linger a bit longer into the evening hours
than previously expected.

Scattered to bkn strato-cu clouds still lingering in the higher
elevations of the Catskills, and expect this to continue late
into the evening and perhaps even overnight. Another band of
high clouds is approaching from the west, but with high pressure
building overhead expect some clearing later tonight. Where it
does clear out and radiate, some patchy fog is also possible,
mainly between 2-7 AM. Cool, with lows 45-52.

Saturday looks like a mostly dry day, but mostly cloudy as warm
moist air pushes back into the region from the midwest. Surface
warm front will stall somewhere over western NY leaving a
strong low level inversion over much of the forecast area. So,
expect mainly elevated convection to develop later Saturday as
the cold front cuts in. Threat for severe should be limited to
the extreme western parts of the area, mainly the Finger Lakes
where any damaging winds may be able to break through to the
surface. Soundings seem to indicate winds as the primary threat.

One final line of thunderstorm activity looks to push through
the area from NW to SE Saturday evening...and this could bring a
period of heavier rain and gusty winds, Any lingering showers
after midnight will be confined to the far south and southeast
parts of the forecast are, primarily NEPA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday/Sunday night...Secondary trough crosses the region during
the late morning/afternoon period. Models indicate modest
instability across northeast Pennsylvania during the afternoon
and an approaching mid level wave may enhance the activity.
Will continue with chance POPs for thunderstorms mainly during
the afternoon and from the twin tiers south. By afternoon the
northern forecast area should be dry with frontal position south
of the area. The convection could linger into the evening
period especially in northeast Pennsylvania due to weak boundary
and passing mid level short wave. Highs will range in the mid
70s to around 80.

Monday...Memorial Day looks dry with ridging both aloft and at
the surface. Highs will be in the 70s under mostly sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The pattern remains active with rounds of showers and
thunderstorms expected through late week. Monday night/Tuesday,
an initial surface wave lifts through the eastern Great Lakes
and pushes a warm front/surface trough across the area. The
activity Monday night will hold off til late with the best
chance for showers/thunderstorms occurring on Tuesday across
central New York. The boundary will remained draped across the
local area Tuesday night and Wednesday continuing the chance
for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday night/Thursday, a
stronger system lifts through the central Great Lakes bringing
the boundary back north as a warm front with the trailing cold
front expected late Wednesday night into Thursday. More showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated with the highest POPs across
the northern forecast area. Friday looks dry as surface high
pressure builds in behind the cold front.

Temperatures through the period look fairly close to seasonal
except for Wednesday when the area may reside in the warm
sector will highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. The possibility of some
shallow and brief MVFR fog is still present at KITH, KBGM and
KELM for a few hours before sunrise. ANy fog will quickly burn
off. With confidence increasing on some showers the 06Z TAF set
narrowed the windows for showers a bit. One batch of VFR
scattered VFR showers is expected in the afternoon. Showers
look more widespread and heavier in the evening hours with
lowering ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR and perhaps
IFR range as a result.

Outlook...

Saturday night...Showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions likely.

Sunday...VFR north. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
possible brief restrictions for KELM, KBGM and KAVP.

Memorial Day...VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorm may bring brief restriction at some terminals in
the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MWG