Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 090748 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 248 AM EST Tue Mar 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Much warmer weather is expected for the next several days with temperatures climbing well above normal. Though dry conditions persist for now, chances for rain showers will increase late Thursday into Friday from a passing cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 245 AM Update... Significant warming will get going during these next couple of dry days, though with another chilly night in between. Weak warm front-cool front tandem is passing through the area early this morning, with too much dry air for measurable precipitation despite radar echoes which has been generally virga. However, the cool front will be quite shallow, struggling halfway or so southward through the area before the March sun angle mixes it out and allows milder temperatures later today. So after starting around 30-40 degrees, we will manage highs of lower 40s-lower 50s. Initial shallow post-frontal stratocumulus will tend to break up and lift back northward especially during the afternoon. Very dry air mass will radiate quickly under high pressure in the evening to get lows into the 20-32 degree range with coldest temperatures underneath a shallow surface-based inversion in the valleys; a few spots could find their way into teens. However, warm air will be advecting in just off the surface as upper ridge builds; sharpening and lowering the inversion and perhaps even allowing patches of valley fog pressed underneath. On Wednesday, warmer air mass becomes realized quickly as sunshine mixes it down. Some high thin ridge-cresting cirrus moves in late in the day, but not before areawide hits at least 50s other than highest elevations. Valleys of Finger Lakes/Central Twin Tiers could even manage 60 degrees in a few spots. It will be the warmest day since at least Christmas; or in the case of Syracuse, probably even since late November. The funny thing is, an even warmer day will follow. Why hello there, Spring! && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 2 pm update... Wednesday night into Thursday rain slowly approaches from the northwest ahead of a slow moving cold front. This associated with surface low pressure moving northeast into the western Great Lakes. Rain showers may move into the far north late Wednesday night with low chance pops. The pops don`t increase much in the morning then increase late in the day to high chance for the Finger Lakes and western Mohawk Valley. Rain amounts will be under a tenth of an inch before 7 PM. In the Catskills and northeast PA it will remain dry. The southerly flow continues Wednesday night keeping temperatures warm with lows from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Dewpoints will be in the mid and upper 30s helping to ripen the snow but winds will be 10 mph or less. Thursday will be the warmest day of the week now with highs in the 60s. Snow will ripen more Thursday as dewpoints rise into the 40s and southwest winds rise to 10 to 15 mph. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 PM Update... A weak cold front begins to move through Thursday night bringing a chance of rain to the area. PoPs remain highest across most of CNY with Likely PoPs north of I-86. Temps will remain mild overnight, only dropping into the 40s. Rain continues Friday morning but PoPs begin to decrease by Friday afternoon as rain shower activity deteriorates. Guidance increased the daytime temps a little bit higher than the previous update. With the morning cloud cover, daytime heating will be limited to the afternoon, so daytime high temps were set a degree below guidance. Even still, temps will top out in the 50s and maybe some low 60s in NEPA. By late Friday evening, the cold front and rain move through, resulting in dry conditions overnight. Overnight temps will fall to the 20s and 30s. QPF totals will be less than a quarter of an inch. There is another slight chance for some precipitation late Friday night and into early Saturday morning. A weak front to our south and a weak system that sweeps across the Great Lakes could bring some rain then wintry mix or snow to most of the area with South-Central NY staying dry. Any accumulations will be light. Both of these systems are short lived though and quickly move out by Saturday afternoon as high pressure moves into the area. As colder air moves in, Saturday will feel more seasonable with daytime temps in the upper 30s and low 40s. Overnight temps will fall to the 20s. The dry trend continues through Sunday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will remain seasonable to finish out the weekend. A cool, wet start to next week is possible as another system approaches the area, but a lot of uncertainty remains on the timing of the event. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A passing warm front will carry west-southwesterly low level wind shear of 35-45 knots going a few more hours during the predawn this morning. Clouds will also gradually lift southwest to northeast out of the region later this morning to mid afternoon. At this point only KRME appears likely to briefly dip into MVFR ceiling for a period late morning-midday, though barely, before joining all terminals at VFR for duration of this TAF set. Variable/light southwest winds, veer northwesterly around 5-8 knots into this afternoon before slackening to light and variable in the evening. Outlook... Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR, though including a small and uncertain chance for fog at KELM early Wednesday morning. Thursday through Friday...occasional restrictions possible in scattered rain showers, especially Thursday night-early Friday. Friday night through Saturday...Small chance for lake effect snow showers/brief restrictions KSYR-KRME, otherwise mainly VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... Minor flooding is possible late this week due to mostly snowmelt across the north branch Susquehanna in CNY and the west branch of the Delaware River. Temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s Wednesday to Friday. Dewpoints are above freezing, peaking in the 40s. Winds are mostly light and around 10 mph. Snow will ripen quickly Wednesday then slowly melt. Where the snow water equivalent is low such as the Chemung and Finger Lakes streams and rivers will rise but not flood. Snowmelt runoff across the headwaters of the north branch Susquehanna, Delaware headwaters, and Oneida Lake basin could amount to several inches of liquid. This runoff will be over a long period from late Wednesday into Friday night so streams and rivers will rise slowly. Rainfall with a cold front Friday will be brief and light with amounts under half an inch. For a major flood several inches of rain would be needed which is not at all likely. As the flood threat nears more details will be given. Flood watches and warnings could also be issued later this week. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MDP HYDROLOGY...TAC

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