Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 230840 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 340 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will give way to dual low pressure systems tracking north and east into the region on Sunday. These low pressure systems will bring rain on Sunday followed by strong winds. Some snow showers will linger on the backside of the departing lows Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure over the region will give way to dual low pressure systems tracking toward the region from the southwest. One center will head into the Great Lakes with the second tracking up the east coast. Clouds will increase and thicken later today as the low pressure systems move northward toward our region. highs should be able to get to around 40 or in the low 40`s today. Moisture will overrun a warm front leading to several rounds of light precipitation tonight and on Sunday. Enough low level cold air looks to be in place across Sullivan, Otsego and Delaware counties for light freezing and sleet this evening before a change to rain around sunrise Sunday. Given the potential for some icy spots, a winter weather advisory has been issued for these counties. Widely patchy and brief freezing rain can not be ruled in other areas east of I-81 in PA and NY. However, coverage looks too low for an advisory but will mention this in the HWO. Any icing looks rather light and under a tenth of an inch regionwide. Using a hi-Res NAM, RGEM and national blend gives us overall QPF amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch by late Sunday. Even with some snow melting that is not enough QPF for flooding concerns at this time. The hi-res NAM was also utilized with temperatures, showing the low-level cold hang on longer which typically occurs in these setups. Temperatures look to start the night in the 30`s and slowly rise by Sunday morning as the warm front moves through. With our region in the warm sector on Sunday, steadier precipitation should gradually become more showery. Potential is present for temperatures to quickly spike ahead of a cold front expected to pass through late Sunday. Timing a temperature spike ahead of the front, perhaps as warm as the 50`s in a few spots provides some uncertainty. Winds will also be on the increase as well with the developing low pressure system with westerly gusts by late afternoon in the 30-40 mph range. This seems very attainable based on a look of modeled soundings showing steep lapse rates and favorable conditions for the stronger gusts to be transported to the surface. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 335 AM UPDATE... Little change in the models for this update. Still showing the potential for damaging winds from late Sunday through Monday. Strongest winds will be over the Finger Lakes to near SYR that will be closer the rapidly deepening low and tightest pressure grid. Also, areas nearer the lake will see less surface frictional loss in the flatter terrain. Other very strong gusts will be over the higher terrain all the way east into the Catskills. Only other weather note for the period is the return to seasonable temperatures and lake effect snow showers which will likely accumulate a few inches over the typical areas in the northern zones. Previous discussion continues below. ***Potential increasing for very strong, damaging winds for the northern tier of Pennsylvania and all of Central NY Late Sunday into Monday*** Sunday: A powerful storm system will pass by well to the northwest of our area. However, this system will drag a strong cold front through the region during the day Sunday. Sunday morning the forecast area will still be in the warm sector of this system, with gusty south winds, periods of rain, and mild temperatures. Still cannot rule out some very localized freezing rain over the higher terrain of northern Sullivan county during the early morning hours. Also, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as the strong front moves through mid to late morning. Soundings show small amounts of instability, mostly elevated. As the front goes through strong cold air advection develops Sunday afternoon, but surface temperatures still rise into the upper 40s to mid-50s areawide. On and off rain showers continue into Sunday afternoon, with total rainfall amounts (Sat night - Sunday) ranging from one-third to three-quarters of an inch. Southwest winds increase between 15-25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph by sunset. Sunday Night and Monday: Strong cold air advection and increasing wind energy moves into our forecast area behind the cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing produces the strongest winds after midnight, working from west to east across the region. With the storm track up across Central Canada (970-975mb low), the strongest winds still seem to be focused from the northern tier of PA up across central NY...with the maxima potentially setting up from near Penn Yan to Syracuse and Rome. Brought the high wind watch a few counties south and including Bradford, Susquehanna, northern Wayne, Sullivan (NY) and points north/west. GFS and MAV guidance has stronger winds compared to the NAM/ MET guidance...but with this set up feel there is at least a 50 percent chance of reaching those higher winds (gusts greater than 58 mph) within the watch area....GFS BUFKIT momentum transfer shows peak gusts 50-58 kts across much of our forecast area...but this may be a little over done down toward Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. GFS 30 meter winds are over 50-55kts Sunday night into Monday morning. Boundary layer winds also peak during this 06z - 15z Monday time period. Daytime mixing increase and keeps winds strong/gusty through midday or afternoon Monday. These wind speeds certainly have the potential to take down trees and powerlines. Wind gusts may not drop below 30-35 mph until Monday power outages may be long duration, especially in the watch area. The other, much more minor issue will be the lake effect/upslope snow showers this period across Central NY...especially Cortland and Norwich north. In this area could see localized 2-4 inches amounts, with more widespread 1-2 inch amounts. Any snow that does fall and accumulate will certainly be blowing/drifting around. Temperatures fall into the mid-20s to near 30 Sunday night...then only warm a few degrees Monday...into the upper 20s and lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 335 AM UPDATE... Relatively quiet weather period with occasional light snow or snow showers and seasonable temperatures. High pressure over the northern plains noses east to the mid Atlantic keeping a supply of cold air on a northwest flow. Made a few adjustments to the weather and temperatures nearer the latest guidance, but overall the forecast remains unchanged. 350 PM Update... Monday night and Tuesday features cold weather, with lingering lake effect snow showers on a WNW flow. Should be mainly dry and partly cloudy for NE PA this period. Snow accumulations look light for this period across north-central NY. Northwest winds decrease, between 10- 20 mph Monday night, then 8 to 15 mph Tuesday. Cold overnight lows in the 10s...with highs mostly in the 20s. Uncertainty returns Tuesday night as the GFS brings a weather system through the area and a period of light snow. Meanwhile the ECWMF and CMC sweep another, almost arctic front through the area from the north with just scattered snow showers. For now, used a blend of the latest guidance which gave chance PoPs for snow showers. Cold with lows in the upper single digits north to mid teens south. Wednesday`s forecast is highly uncertain. The GFS and Canadian continue to show a weak wave moving through the area from the midwest, which may bring some light snow to the area, depending on the track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to show the area under high pressure with mainly dry conditions. For now, kept chance POPs in the forecast for light snow due to the uncertainty. Should the GFS/Canadian solution pan out, some lingering snow showers are possible Wednesday night, especially in CNY where there could be lake effect or lake enhanced snow showers. High pressure then likely builds in for Thursday through Friday, bringing drier conditions. Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens and lower 20s. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR with light winds through the morning. Very light fog is possible between and sunrise at all TAF sites with the highest chances at KAVP and KELM. Winds later today will increase a bit from the south and southeast gradually today and tonight. Some wind gusts by late evening may approach 15-20 knots. Ceilings will lower, likely to MVFR with rain moving in after 00z Sunday. LLWS also looks possible just beyond the TAF period. Outlook... Sunday morning...Restrictions likely with rain, perhaps briefly mixed with sleet at first. Low level wind shear likely after 06Z Sunday morning from strong SSW low level jet. Sunday afternoon through Monday...Rain showers changing back to snow showers but also mainly impacting the NY terminals with intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected, especially KSYR. Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions but brief restrictions possible at KRME/KSYR in snow showers. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in light snow. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for PAZ038>040. NY...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Sunday for NYZ046-057-062. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...DGM/MJM LONG TERM...BJG/DGM AVIATION...MWG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.