Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 191717 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY and PA through the weekend. A weak front will usher a few showers into the region at the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will bring mild temperatures and clear skies to the region through Friday. Patchy dense fog is expected each morning, especially along the river valleys. Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s Thursday, fall into the middle-40s Thursday night, and rebound into the middle-70s Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 340 am update... High pressure will remain in control through the period, with very little overall changes made from the previous forecast. With the high pressure overhead, Friday night into Saturday morning will be favorable for valley fog development and may be locally dense in some areas. Temperatures will remain above normal, with high confidence of widespread high temperatures at least into the mid 70s on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Model guidance has slowed the arrival of a cold front from Sunday evening/night to maybe as late as Monday afternoon now. A blend of model guidance keeps chance PoP overnight Sunday into Monday morning and is now introducing likely PoP by Monday afternoon. So the remainder of the weekend is looking mostly rain-free, and deep SW return flow will send temperatures well above normal on Sunday, with highs possibly in the low 80s for much of the area. Most of the model guidance has the cold front through the region by Monday night, with high pressure and cooler temperatures moving in for Tuesday and should persist for the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mainly clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions expected at all terminals through this evening. However, once again conditions become favorable for valley fog tonight...after 06Z where IFR conditions are likely at KELM through 13Z Friday morning. Outlook... Friday through Sunday...VFR except late night/early morning valley fog expected for at least KELM; possibly KITH and KBGM for brief periods as well. Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but some restrictions possible in showers as front crosses, especially Monday afternoon and evening. Tuesday...VFR conditions likely with high pressure building in. May see some patchy fog at KELM in the morning. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...BJT/DJP

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