Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 060737 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 337 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Spotty showers end this morning as a front finishes pushing through the area, though clouds will linger for a time today before scattering by late afternoon. Thursday will be mainly dry, but a small chance of showers and isolated thunder will creep in from the south late Thursday into Friday. A dry weekend is forecast, with slightly below average temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 330 AM Update... A mostly dry near term period is anticipated as weak high pressure skims by the region. With a cold front just slipping through before dawn, we will be in a post-frontal environment today with a shallow deck of clouds and even a couple lingering spits from them especially in Central New York. That said, cold front is a bit of a misnomer, in that as clouds gradually scatter this afternoon for at least partial sunshine we will still manage lower 70s to lower 80s for highs; little changed from yesterday. The incoming air mass though indeed is somewhat cooler overall and certainly drier. This will become more obvious tonight as temperatures fall into the 50s-lower 60s. It would go lower except that the weak high pressure will be centered to our north, and we will have some cloud cover especially in Northeast PA-Southern Tier NY to prevent better radiational cooling. Models continue to trend drier at least for during the day Thursday. Very weak convergence and increasing dewpoints could manage to burp up a few diurnally-forced showers and isolated thunder in vicinity of the Poconos, Wyoming Valley, and perhaps sneaking towards the southwestern Catskills. Overall though most of the area and time will be dry Thursday with highs of mid 70s-lower 80s. Clouds will be more dominant in Northeast PA but at least partial sunshine can be anticipated in Central NY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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330 AM Update After a period of dry weather for the middle of the week, a chance for showers and thunderstorms will return into Thursday night as an upper trough starts to dig into the region. There continues to be a fair amount of disagreement among the model guidance on just when rain should finally start to move in. This appears due in part to the surface high, and co-located upper ridge, which remain situated over New England into Thursday night. If these features are slower to break down than some of the guidance would suggest, this could delay the onset of showers until the daytime Friday as the shortwave moves through and drags a weak cold front into the region. Some thunder cannot be ruled out during the day Friday with a little instability indicated in model soundings. Temperatures will start off fairly mild in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday, then will peak in the 70s to lower 80s during the afternoon. Cooler, drier air working in behind the front will allow temperatures to fall back further Friday night, into the lower to mid 50s under clearing skies.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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330 AM Update... High pressure gradually building over the weekend will allow for dry and quiet weather Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures running slightly below average given the cooler airmass in place. We should be able to stay dry into early next week before the ridge begins to shift eastward later Monday and rain chances finally start to work back in Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. After a cooler weekend, expect temperatures to come in a little warmer than the previous days as flow shifting out of the south/southwest advects in a warmer airmass.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Post frontal ceilings are in the process of forming, and will reach fuel alternate to IFR levels for most terminals early this morning. Gradual improvement will occur as we head towards mid day, and lifting/scattering occur this afternoon. Mainly VFR this afternoon-evening. Initial west wind will veer northwest or even north-northwest as the day carries on; a few gusts into lower-mid teens knots but sustained generally under 10 knots. Outlook... Late Wednesday night through Thursday mid day...Moist frontal boundary drifting northward may cause ceiling restrictions to redevelop for KELM-KAVP-KBGM; perhaps KITH. VFR KSYR-KRME. Late Thursday through Friday...Scattered showers/isolated thunder could cause intermittent restrictions. Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...HLC LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...MDP

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