National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 061057
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
657 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A spotty shower or thunderstorm could still occur today as a
weak front exits this morning and a disturbance passes later
today into tonight. For most of the time and area, it will be
rain free as drier air overspreads the region. High pressure
dominates Sunday through Wednesday with an extended stretch of
dry weather. Temperatures will trend quite warm by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
3 AM Update...
A front exits this morning, and an upper trough pivots through
late afternoon-evening; but the main theme of the weekend will
be the building in of drier air and high pressure.

Low pressure now moving into Maine is trailing a cold front
across our area early this morning. Moisture is limited, yet
there is enough instability for a spotty shower or thunderstorm
east of Interstate 81 as the front finishes its trek through the
area. Some pre-dawn patchy fog will also occur in the Catskills
on New York as well as the Susquehanna Valley to Poconos in
Pennsylvania before the front passes.

Post-frontal northwesterly winds will pick up today with gusts
of 15-25 mph. Though cool air advection will be in progress,
there will also be a decent amount of sunshine to still allow
highs of 70s to near 80. With dewpoints crashing through the
50s as the northwest wind advects in Canadian air, it will be a
fairly comfortable day.

Late today, a digging upper trough will drop into the region,
which itself could cause a couple showers or rogue storm in
parts of Central New York. However, that will be the exception
rather than the rule, because of the dryness of the air mass as
well as loss of diurnal heating this evening. Some high clouds
may pass overnight with the upper trough, but overall a quiet
and cooler night can be expected with lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

High pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes-western Ontario
will start to build into the region for the remainder of the
weekend. Northwest winds will still manage to gust 10-20 mph at
times Sunday, but it will be a mostly sunny and pleasant day
with highs of upper 60s-mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update...

Ridge of high pressure builds over the Eastern U.S. through the
short term period. Sunday night will be mostly clear and with
calm winds, radiational cooling should send low temperatures
down well into the 40s. However, the dry air mass in place will
be perfect for a large diurnal swing during the day
Monday...with plentiful sunshine pushing high temperatures into
the 70s. Surface high pushes off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday
night with weak southerly return flow and WAA developing.
Overnight lows should be warmer, with still upper 40s across the
Catskills, but mostly low to mid 50s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
410 AM Update...

Warm return flow with amplified warm ridge pivoting over the
MidAtlantic. Expect much warmer conditions through the middle
of the week with highs well into the 80s for most locations and
upper 80s at lower elevations by Wednesday. Ridging will keep
any moisture from Cristobal well to our west as the remnants
track into Ontario Canada on Wednesday.

Wednesday night and beyond, models depict highly amplified
ridge getting pinched by an upper low in the western Atlantic,
and a broad upper trough pushing in from the west. Surface low
pressure pushes northeast across Central Ontario, Canada and
into Quebec. This system will try to slide a weakening cold front
into the region early Thursday, but how much of a push this
front has as it enters our region will depend on how much the
high pressure that is in place breaks down. Latest 00Z Euro now
shows this front washing out over the area with high pressure
quickly building back in behind it, bring a dry end to the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A front is exiting the region this morning, and a disturbance
aloft will pass by late today. Each could produce a rogue shower
or thunderstorm, but most likely outcome for all terminals will
be dry weather. VFR conditions are anticipated as drier air
overtakes the region. The exception will be KAVP early this
morning as a shallow deck of valley clouds lifts and then
scatters as the front passes. Behind the front, winds will become
west/northwest for the terminals today, around 10 knots with
gusts 14-18 knots, before slackening to a light northwest this
evening. A thin MVFR deck of clouds is probable at KITH later
tonight; otherwise VFR expected.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...VFR, except early morning valley fog
possible at KELM from Sunday night onward.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MDP