Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 202056 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 456 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A storm developing over the western Great Lakes will bring a chilly rain Thursday, though it may begin as snow at higher elevations especially east of Interstate 81. The storm will then merge with a coastal storm, keeping things unsettled through Friday night. Several inches of snow are possible especially Friday night over the higher terrain of central New York. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... A mild southwest flow and sunshine has pushed temperatures well into the 40s and lower 50s this afternoon. Warm temperatures will continue tonight with lows in the 30s. High clouds on their way in now across PA. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight so that by sunrise it will be cloudy with rain moving into NEPA and Sullivan County NY. Across the higher terrain the rain could mix with snow. As temperatures warm into the 40s precipitation goes to all rain for most of the day into the evening. Maybe the highest peaks of the western Catskills get an inch or two. The bigger issue will be the rain in NEPA and the Catskills which will be around an inch Friday to Friday evening. This will prime the streams and cause them to rise. Over this length of time flooding not expected. All of this precipitation is caused by a digging trough into the western Great Lakes. A surface low is ahead of this but a coastal low lifts north from the Carolinas and strengthens. Both lows combine over NJ Thursday night and continues northeast. These systems move slowly all the while pulling moisture northwest into our area. Late Thursday night as the stacked low is to our southeast colder air comes back in changing the rain to snow. Snowfall amounts over the higher terrain of up to 4 inches across the higher terrain of the Catskills, Upper Susquehanna Region and Tug Hill. With less precip to the far west and south snow amounts over the terrain less than an inch. This could end up being a winter weather advisory. Models coming into better agreement but still varied. A few degrees colder or warmer will make a huge difference. Lows again in mostly the low and mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 400 PM Update... A complex late winter storm could impact Central NY and parts of NE PA this period. Several pieces of upper level energy combine to develop a strong coastal low by early Friday morning. The ECMWF/CMC continues to indicate a stronger, more well developed system compared to the NAM and GFS. This does appear to be a favorable pattern for potentially significant snowfall for at least portions of of our CWA. CIPS analog for pattern recognition indicates that the mean snowfall from the top analog events was around 6-10" north and northeast of Binghamton; especially the higher elevations. The details remain uncertain with this complex weather system, especially the thermal profiles. A few degrees colder or warmer will make a large difference in the ultimate snowfall amounts. Went ahead and issued a winter storm watch from southern Cayuga east to Cortland, Chenango, Otsego and points north. This is the area with the highest confidence at this time for significant snowfall. Friday: Developing surface low pressure will be near Long Island daybreak Friday. A deformation band of mixed rain and wet snow will be lingering over our eastern counties in the morning. With a subtle dry slot working into the west central portions of the area. By late afternoon a strong upper level low slides overhead, to near NYC, and completes the phasing of the low and mid level circulation. The surface low deepens to around 985mb over southern New England by around sunset. Strong cold air advection arrives by late afternoon as the winds shift and increase out of the northwest. Another deformation zone and wrap around snow develops on a 320 flow, with some lake enhancement downwind of Lake Ontario. Temperatures hold steady or even fall slightly late in the day...in the 30s...except lower 40s for the valleys of NE PA. Friday night: Persistent wrap around snow and snow showers continue downwind of Lake Ontario as the 700mb and 500 mb low closes off over southern New England. The steadiest snow will remain along and north of the NY/PA border, with just scattered snow showers across most of NE PA. 850mb temperatures around -11C will be marginal for additional lake enhancement. Northwest winds increase between 15- 25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph, especially over the higher terrain. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow...again mainly across our Central NY counties. The highest snow accumulations are expected across the hills north of Binghamton and south of Syracuse...extending into portions of the Catskills, where an upslope component could add to the snowfall. Lows drop into the upper 10s and lower 20s. Saturday: Lingering snow showers in the morning across Central NY, then much drier air and high pressure approach by afternoon. Expect decreasing clouds through the day. Still remaining cold and breezy, with highs in the 30s for central NY, with mid-30s to lower 40s for NE PA. Winds could gusts as high as 40 mph through early afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... After a quiet Saturday night and Sunday under weak surface ridging, another push of unseasonably cold air will make a run at NY and PA Sunday night, setting off snow showers. A weak wave moving along the base of the cold air regime will strengthen into a coastal cyclone on Monday. Temperatures on Monday will be in the 30s across much of Upstate NY, borderline for snow or rain. Warmer temperatures will extend from the Twin Tiers southward. Dry air will move into our forecast area for Tuesday and Wednesday, though a few stray snow showers will remain possible over our southeastern counties. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 130 pm update... VFR conditions will persist into this evening. High clouds come in this evening then a 5k ft ceiling around 06z. MVFR cigs come in from south to north starting at 9z at AVP, to around 12z in CNY. Light rain will start about that same time. Between 12 and 15z cigs fall to MVFR fuel alternate in south central NY and AVP. AVP fall to IFR vsbys/cigs around 14z in rain. Southwest winds at 10 kts with a few higher gusts this afternoon. Tonight south winds at 4 to 8 kts but southeast at SYR/RME/AVP. Thursday southeast to south winds increase to 8 to 10 kts. Outlook... Thursday afternoon...Restrictions likely in rain showers as a system arrives. It may briefly start as rain-snow mix at KRME. Thursday night through Friday...Occasional restrictions in mixed rain-snow showers as a system continues to impact area. Friday night through Saturday...Intermittent restrictions from snow showers, especially the NY terminals. Gusty northwest wind. Saturday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday...Possible restrictions in snow and rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for NYZ009-017-018-036-037-044>046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...DGM/DJP AVIATION...DJP

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