Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 230832 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 432 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the region today with rain showers expected primarily during the afternoon. Tonight into Wednesday night will be cooler with some lake effect rain and snow showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 330 AM update... Moisture remains trapped under a temperature inversion across most of the area. Nothing is falling out of the clouds. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to mid 40s and remained. A warm front is approaching far western NY with some lift and a little moisture. A few sprinkles are showing up on the radars over far southern Ontario. This will progress east so have pops starting at 11z in the far west and increasing and spreading east as a cold front right behind the warm front approaches midday. This front and a surface low will drop southeast and cross upstate NY this afternoon with rain showers. A thunderstorm is also possible with steep mid level lapse rates, 100 cape, and weak shear across CNY. Winds are weak especially for late October but could produce gusty winds in thunderstorms. An upper level trough moves east into the area with cold air aloft. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s with a modest southwest low level flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 330 am update... Tonight synoptic moisture leaves but lake effect takes over. The low level flow shifts to 330 with cold air advection. 850mb temps fall to -5c late tonight and remain through Wednesday. Low levels cool so rain mixes with then changes to snow. As with the last several events this happens across the highest terrain first. Snow amounts should be only a few tenths. Aloft an upper level trough moves east into New England. Low temperatures in the mid and upper 30s. Wednesday with the cold air aloft providing some instability rain showers will become cellular during the afternoon. Some snow could mix with the rain early and late in the day. Winds are stronger at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Highs mostly in the low and mid 40s. Slightly colder air will move in Wednesday night with northwest flow at all levels. In the evening one last short wave moves through. The low level flow becomes better aligned. Again Wednesday evening looks to be the best time for light snow accumulations of an inch or less across the higher terrain in CNY. The usual lake effect areas between Syracuse, Binghamton, and Oneonta. Late at night the lake effect weakens. Lows around 30. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 420 AM Update... Still looking quiet Thursday-Friday, then we have prospects of a coastal system over the weekend. There remains a fair amount of uncertainty in the models, with differing schools-of-thought remaining intact. The GFS has a known bias with coastal systems in being too weak and too far east at longer time ranges, and the 00Z operational run is still hanging on to that idea with little impact for our area. The ECMWF and Canadian models meanwhile more resemble each other in tracking a fairly deep yet filling surface low up the Hudson Valley, while 700mb and 500mb lows track well to our west which would delay the cold air advection. Leaning more on the ECMWF- Canadian scenario, this looks to be a mainly cool wet system. Brief snow cannot be totally ruled out on the front end late Friday night-early Saturday due to wet bulbing of precipitation falling into initially dry low level air, and again late Saturday night-early Sunday from cold air advection. However, expectations for now are that the bulk of precipitation will occur during the day Saturday and in the form of a chilly rain, and it could be quite a bit of it. Half inch to inch of rainfall could be the end result, on what would turn out to be an unpleasant raw Saturday. Keep an eye on the forecast for updates, due to the degree of uncertainty and thus still a range of possibilities. One adjustment that was also made, is that while it still appears that sunshine will try to gain the upper hand on Thursday after some lingering early morning flurries, high clouds may actually increase fairly quickly on Friday, ahead of the system. So after highs of upper 30s-lower 40s Thursday and lows of mid-upper 20s Thursday night, moderation in temperatures will be limited to only lower-mid 40s for highs Friday. Previous discussion... A Low pressure system will slowly organizes along the gulf coast into the Southeastern United States on Friday then tracks up the east coast this weekend. There is still quite a bit of difference with the model and ensembles. The GFS suite continues to be furthest east with the track that has minimal impacts to our region but it should be noted some of the GEFS do bring precipitation further west. However, the majority of global models and ensembles do bring the low straight up the coast bringing fairly widespread precipitation to our region. The three main global models 12Z 10/22 appear to be falling victim to typical biases with the east bias of the GFS, overphasing and development on the Canadian and the feedback issues forming a dual-low structure on the 12Z ECMWF. For now, the forecast trends in the direction of the low coming up the coast. However, a lot of uncertainty still is present for this weekend. Another trend is for this storm to move in faster with precipitation moving in by Saturday morning on most of the modeling and ensembles. Temperatures look to be near freezing Saturday morning with marginal boundary layer temperatures, mixed precipitation or even a period of snow is a concern given some wetbulbing is likely Saturday morning. If the track is up the coast, the boundary layer will likely warm fairly quick and precipitation changes to rain for the remainder of the event. A further out to sea track may result in more mixed precipitation. Steady precipitation then will taper off to rain and snow showers through Monday as a deep trough engulfs the eastern United States. Temperatures will generally be in the 30`s and 40`s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 130 am update... VFR conditions will continue into the afternoon. East to southeast winds at 5 kts will shift to southwest around 15z and increase to 5 to 10 kts. A cold front will drop southeast into the area this afternoon with showers and MVFR conditions especially the further north. RME will have the lowest conditions dropping to MVFR around 20z then to fuel alternate around 03z late this evening. SYR/ITH also should have high end MVFR this evening. Winds will shift to west around 20z with the front and increase to 10 kts. A few gusts to 20 kts are possible at AVP/BGM this afternoon and evening. Outlook... Tuesday overnight to Wednesday night...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers in CNY. AVP VFR. Thursday and Friday...VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MDP/MWG AVIATION...TAC is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.