Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 061057 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 657 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A spotty shower or thunderstorm could still occur today as a weak front exits this morning and a disturbance passes later today into tonight. For most of the time and area, it will be rain free as drier air overspreads the region. High pressure dominates Sunday through Wednesday with an extended stretch of dry weather. Temperatures will trend quite warm by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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3 AM Update... A front exits this morning, and an upper trough pivots through late afternoon-evening; but the main theme of the weekend will be the building in of drier air and high pressure. Low pressure now moving into Maine is trailing a cold front across our area early this morning. Moisture is limited, yet there is enough instability for a spotty shower or thunderstorm east of Interstate 81 as the front finishes its trek through the area. Some pre-dawn patchy fog will also occur in the Catskills on New York as well as the Susquehanna Valley to Poconos in Pennsylvania before the front passes. Post-frontal northwesterly winds will pick up today with gusts of 15-25 mph. Though cool air advection will be in progress, there will also be a decent amount of sunshine to still allow highs of 70s to near 80. With dewpoints crashing through the 50s as the northwest wind advects in Canadian air, it will be a fairly comfortable day. Late today, a digging upper trough will drop into the region, which itself could cause a couple showers or rogue storm in parts of Central New York. However, that will be the exception rather than the rule, because of the dryness of the air mass as well as loss of diurnal heating this evening. Some high clouds may pass overnight with the upper trough, but overall a quiet and cooler night can be expected with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. High pressure over the northwestern Great Lakes-western Ontario will start to build into the region for the remainder of the weekend. Northwest winds will still manage to gust 10-20 mph at times Sunday, but it will be a mostly sunny and pleasant day with highs of upper 60s-mid 70s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... Ridge of high pressure builds over the Eastern U.S. through the short term period. Sunday night will be mostly clear and with calm winds, radiational cooling should send low temperatures down well into the 40s. However, the dry air mass in place will be perfect for a large diurnal swing during the day Monday...with plentiful sunshine pushing high temperatures into the 70s. Surface high pushes off the Mid Atlantic Coast Monday night with weak southerly return flow and WAA developing. Overnight lows should be warmer, with still upper 40s across the Catskills, but mostly low to mid 50s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 410 AM Update... Warm return flow with amplified warm ridge pivoting over the MidAtlantic. Expect much warmer conditions through the middle of the week with highs well into the 80s for most locations and upper 80s at lower elevations by Wednesday. Ridging will keep any moisture from Cristobal well to our west as the remnants track into Ontario Canada on Wednesday. Wednesday night and beyond, models depict highly amplified ridge getting pinched by an upper low in the western Atlantic, and a broad upper trough pushing in from the west. Surface low pressure pushes northeast across Central Ontario, Canada and into Quebec. This system will try to slide a weakening cold front into the region early Thursday, but how much of a push this front has as it enters our region will depend on how much the high pressure that is in place breaks down. Latest 00Z Euro now shows this front washing out over the area with high pressure quickly building back in behind it, bring a dry end to the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A front is exiting the region this morning, and a disturbance aloft will pass by late today. Each could produce a rogue shower or thunderstorm, but most likely outcome for all terminals will be dry weather. VFR conditions are anticipated as drier air overtakes the region. The exception will be KAVP early this morning as a shallow deck of valley clouds lifts and then scatters as the front passes. Behind the front, winds will become west/northwest for the terminals today, around 10 knots with gusts 14-18 knots, before slackening to a light northwest this evening. A thin MVFR deck of clouds is probable at KITH later tonight; otherwise VFR expected. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...VFR, except early morning valley fog possible at KELM from Sunday night onward.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MDP

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