-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
100
FXUS61 KBGM 160912
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
412 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light snow is expected today, mainly late morning and afternoon,
as a weak clipper system moves through. High pressure and dry
weather finally returns on Friday, but another system brings a
mix of rain and snow to the area this weekend. In the wake of
this system, very cold Arctic air will move in and settle over
the region through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM Update...

A weak and moisture starved clipper system will push through the
region today. Light snow will start over spread the area from
southwest to northeast throughout the day. Temperatures this
afternoon only top out in the low to mid 20s, so even though QPF
is only around 0.1", the SLR ratios will likely in the 20 to 1
range. This will result in a fresh fluffy coating of 1 to 2
inches of snow accumulation, mainly west of the I-81 Corridor
with lower amount further east into the Catskills.

Snow showers taper off this evening, with some lingering lake
effect snow possible near and north of the NYS Thruway through
late tonight. Lows tonight fall back into the teens.

Brief high pressure will settle over the region on Friday,
however some lake effect flurries will still be possible north
of the NYS Thruway. Highs on Friday will climb into the low to
mid 30s for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
330 AM Update...

SW flow remains over the region Friday night as a ridge departs to
the east and a trough is moving in from the west. A slight warming
trend is expected overnight as SW flow pushes in warmer air from the
Ohio River Valley. Temps will cool to the mid to upper 20s until
around midnight, then start to warm as the southern airmass
moves into the area. Upper 20s to low 30s are expected by
sunrise.

A broad upper level trough will dig into the US Friday
night/Saturday morning. Embedded shortwaves will move through the
eastern edge of this trough Saturday, generating scattered
precipitation across the region during the day. Precip should
start off as mostly snow, then transition to a snow rain mix in
the afternoon, then back to snow in the evening. Moisture is
somewhat lacking with this shortwave so most of the area should
see 0.5 to 1 inch of snow, with a couple inches possible across
northern Oneida county as lake moisture will help enhance the
totals there.

A cold front will push through the area Saturday evening, with
temperatures falling into the upper teens to low 20s Saturday night.
Flow becomes westerly behind the cold front, which will allow for
some light lake effect snow showers to develop, mostly across the
northern Finger Lakes to Oneida county.

Sunday will see continued CAA as cold air continues to push into the
region from the WNW. Temps will fall through the day, starting off
in the low 20s at daybreak, falling to the mid teens by the
afternoon hours. Light lake effect snow showers will be
possible across the Finger Lakes to Oneida county.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
345 AM Update...

The main weather feature for this period will be an extremely
cold arctic airmass that will plunge into the region through mid
week.

CAA continues Sunday night as the arctic front moves across the
region. Current ensemble guidance shows temperatures Tuesday
morning through Wednesday morning in the negative single digits
to low single digits. Winds will also be active enough that
wind chill values are modeled to be in the -0s to upper -10s.
Cold weather advisories will probably be needed during this
period, with a slight chance an extreme cold warning might be
needed if the winds pick up a little bit and windchills fall
farther. Along with this brutally cold weather, lake effect
snow chances are looking up from the northern Finger Lakes to
Oneida county given the very cold air aloft and westerly winds
coming off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions through early this morning with possibly
brief MVFR ceilings. However, snow moves in again late
morning/early afternoon and brings MVFR to IFR conditions to
all terminals. Right now snow looks light enough to stay above
LIFR, but the higher elevations sites like BGM and ITH may see
brief LIFR during the afternoon and evening, though timing is
uncertain.

Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...A wintry mix may bring some restrictions.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in scattered snow
showers.

Monday...Lake effect snow showers and associated restrictions
possible, especially for KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK