Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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437 FXUS61 KBGM 150743 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 243 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Another winter storm will bring a wintry mix to the area Monday afternoon into Tuesday as a cyclone moves through the Mid- Atlantic region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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240 AM update... Lake effect snow showers will continue to skirt Northern Oneida County, where a winter weather advisory remains in effect. An additional 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected in the advisory area north of a Camden to Remsen line. Elsewhere, a mainly quiet day is forecast for Sunday. Winds will remain gusty through the afternoon with frequent gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will reach the middle 30s under cloudy skies. A thin band of lake effect snow will form in northwest flow Sunday night and affect Onondaga County. Light snow amounts are forecast. A winter storm sliding out of the Mid-Atlantic will spread snow and mixed precipitation into our forecast area Monday afternoon. The snow will reach our PA counties initially and spread northward after dark. A light coating of freezing rain is anticipated over portions of NEPA Monday afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure developing over the Ohio valley begins to head northeast towards the area Monday evening into Tuesday, touching off light snow across the area by late MOnday morning before a trust of warmer, more moist air brings in better lift and increases chances for snow across the area from south to north. GFS and Euro continue to agree on a more southerly track of this system, with the center of the low moving first into southwest PA, then generally heading towards Long Island and finally quickly pushing off the coast. Meanwhile, the NAM takes this system a little more northward into eastern NY state, with a more pronounced warm nose nudging into the Southern Tier Tuesday morning. The cooler, more southerly track continues to seem like a more reasonable solution, as a cold Canadian high over Quebec should continue to funnel in colder air into Monday night. Therefore, with this latest update, the snow/mix line has been moved more southward. Cold air in place will allow for precipitation to start off entirely as snow across our area before 0Z, quickly changing over to a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain in northeast PA. The freezing line continues to push northward through midnight, finally resting somewhere around the Twin Tiers into Tuesday morning. However, there is the aforementioned disagreement among the models, with 850 mb temperatures staying near and below 0C according to the GFS, Euro, and ensembles, and the latest NAM bringing above-freezing temperatures more northward. At this time, mainly snow is expected northeast of a line from Cooperstown to Cortland to Hornell, with a mix of freezing rain, snow, and sleet through to the Twin Tiers. A change over to mainly rain is expected into NE PA, especially across the river valleys, as temperatures there climb into the upper 30s and low 40s. Tuesday afternoon, a change back over to snow is expected as the system moves offshore, and the cold front pushes through. A dry slot works in, shutting off snow for most of our area by 0Z, with just a few lingering showers across our eastern zones and a change over to lake effect snow showers downwind of Ontario into the evening. Several inches of snow would be expected area-wide - with up to 1 to 3 inches across northeast PA and generally 3 to 4 inches across central NY. Lesser totals would be expected in the river valleys, where mainly rain will be seen during the day Tuesday. A glaze of ice will be possible across much of our area, southeast of the Cooperstown-Cortland-Hornell line. Otherwise, we`re still looking at non-diurnal temperatures through the short term period. Temperatures starting in the 20s Monday morning will climb generally into the low/mid 30s by the afternoon, and won`t budge much after sunset as warm air starts moving in. Temperatures increase a couple degrees later Tuesday morning and into the early afternoon ahead of the front, then quickly fall back into the low/mid 20s early Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No major changes to the extended; still looking cold with snow showers mid to late week...then drying out and moderating some by next Saturday. Wednesday and Thursday: A piece of arctic air moves into the region as an upper level low swings across the region. Very cold air mass and unsettled conditions are expected with numerous snow showers for our lake snow effect areas and flurries or scattered snow showers further south. Highs will struggle to get into the 20`s with overnight lows in the single digits north and teens for NE PA. If the operational GFS and ECMWF are to be believed temperatures will have to be adjusted even further downward given the modeled boundary layer temperatures. Friday and Saturday: The cold upper level low moves east, with ridging, both aloft and at the surface moving in from the west. This should bring the lake effect snow showers to a gradual end and we should see a gradual moderating trend. Friday will likely still be below average, with highs in the mid-20s to lower 30s, and overnight lows Friday night still cold, in the teens to low 20s. By Saturday, early indications are for dry weather and near to slightly above average temperatures. Highs look to reach the mid to upper 30s for most areas. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A mix of IFR/MVFR restrictions will persist overnight as a cold front exits the region. The most persistent restrictions will be at KRME, where light lake effect snow will skirt the terminal through the next several hours. LLWS is expected from KSYR to KRME through early morning. Winds will gust at 25 to 30 knots throughout the morning and into the afternoon at all terminals. Slow improvement is expected for flight conditions. Precipitation will end this morning, then ceilings will rise to VFR/MVFR this afternoon. Outlook... Monday...VFR with winds decreasing. Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix. Wednesday...MVFR/IFR restrictions in CNY maybe reaching AVP. Thursday...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...HLC/MJM LONG TERM...HLC/MJM AVIATION...DJP

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