Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 310135 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 935 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Stray lake effect rain and snow showers give way to dry weather late tonight and Saturday. Tonight will be the coldest night of the season so far with lows in the teens and 20s. Showers return later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 935 PM update... It will be a quiet, chilly overnight. Clouds are lingering longer than expected this evening. With temperatures running a few degrees above plan, we nudged overnight temperatures toward the latest mesoscale guidance, which is a few degrees warmer. The forecast remains in good shape. 330 PM Update... Much of the rain/snow activity across our area has come to an end, but we won`t rule out any stray lake effect rain and snow showers downwind of Ontario the rest of the day and into the night under cold northwest flow. Chances will mainly be across the Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers this afternoon with north-northwesterly flow, but as winds shift more to the west/northwest overnight, a chance for flurries and snow showers migrates northward towards the NY Thruway before finally wrapping up late tonight. Otherwise, temperatures hover in the 30s so far, but should be able to peak in the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of the area with some spots across the higher terrain likely only staying in the mid 30s. High pressure building in will usher in a cold and dry airmass. As temperatures and dewpoints fall back and skies clear out, with increasingly lighter winds tonight, surface temperatures will be able to turn very cold. Expect lows in the teens to mid 20s. High pressure starts to shift east of the area into Saturday, with southerly return flow allowing temperatures to climb a bit higher into the 40s under sunny skies. Overnight, southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of a deepening trough across the Upper Midwest. This will allow for increasing temperatures aloft and more persistent winds throughout the night, which will help to keep temperatures more mild than the previous night. Expect lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s with increasing clouds. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 300 pm update... Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the storm system expected to track east across the Great Lakes into the Northeast Sunday into Monday morning. Deepening cutoff upper low over the nrn Great Lakes Sunday morning will induce modest warm air advection ahead of the system across PA and NY. This initial air mass will be relatively warm with temperatures climbing into the upper 40s and lower 50s. However, a cold front associated with this system will pick up steam and roll into wrn NY Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, southwest winds will increase in response to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Winds will strengthen to 15 to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph Sunday morning and afternoon. The front will push east through central NY into the afternoon and trigger rain showers over a good portion of the region. As much as a quarter of an inch of rain is possible, with the highest amounts along and north of the Thruway. The front moves through rather quickly late Sunday with a dry slot forming and pushing in from the southwest early Monday morning as the system wraps up. As the drier air moves in on the back side of the system, so will the colder air. A few snow showers will mix in at times late Sunday night before changing to all snow by Monday morning. A stronger push of colder air will begin to pour in Monday morning with 850mb temperatures -8 to -11 deg C...and with Lake Ontario water temperatures around 10 deg C, this will prove very favorable for lake induced instability and subsequent lake effect snow showers. The dominant 330 deg flow should allow for mostly multi-banded snow down stream of Lake Ontario, with some Finger Lake enhancement as well. There may be a window with sufficient lake to lake connection upstream also that could enhance some of the lake bands even further with embedded heavy snowfall rates. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for possibly hazardous LES for the Monday morning commute. Temperatures will gradually warm from the 20s Monday morning into the upper 30s and lower 40s by the afternoon. This warm up could allow some of the lingering snow showers to change to or mix with rain. The other main story with this system will be the strong northwest winds behind the front on Monday. Through most of the day winds will be sustained out of the NW around 20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph at times. Blowing snow and reduced visibility could be an issue on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 300 pm update... Lake effect snow showers taper off slowly Monday night, and will likely linger into Tuesday morning as the 850mb ridge axis does not transition through the region until Tuesday afternoon. The air mass will slowly warm through the day with temperatures starting out in the 20s and climbing into the upper 30s north, to mid/upper 40s in ne PA. By Tuesday night an upper ridge will start to build across much of the central and eastern U.S. This feature will usher in not only much warmer air, but also much drier air through the middle of the week and possibly into the end of the week as well. Temperatures warm into the 50s and 60s by Wed and Thursday. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The cold NW flow is allowing clouds to stream off Lake Ontario into west-central NY and PA this evening. Cloud bases are generally between 2-5k ft agl in these lake effect/upslope areas. Overnight, the flow is expected to back more westerly, which should push the clouds at least slightly further east than is currently being observed at 00z. Overall, think this should mean some rather persistent MVFR CIGS at ITH and BGM most, if not all of the overnight....right into Saturday morning. Expect borderline MVFR/Low end VFR CIGS at ELM and SYR most of the night. The borderline MVFR/ Low end VFR clouds are forecast to reach RME late tonight or early Saturday morning for a time...mainly 09-15z Saturday. The clouds should also reach AVP after 06z, and continue until 12-15z Saturday...although am expecting bases to generally remain VFR here. Lingering clouds through 15-18z Saturday for most of the NY terminals...likely trending to VFR bases though. Then, expect fast clearing, with SKC conditions areawide Saturday afternoon and evening under high pressure. NW winds 5-10 kts this evening, becoming westerly then variable and light overnight. Winds turn south-southwest Saturday morning and into the afternoon 5-10 kts. Outlook... Saturday night through Sunday morning...Mainly VFR. LLWS possible with a strengthening southerly flow just above ground level. Sunday afternoon through Monday...Frontal system moves through with rain late Sunday, followed by occasional ceiling restrictions and mixed snow/rain showers into Monday; mainly NY terminals. Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HLC NEAR TERM...DJP/HLC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...HLC/MJM

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