Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 140600 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 200 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue today, as another disturbance drops through the region. Though a small chance of showers lingers Tuesday, drier and cooler weather is anticipated for midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 145 AM Update... Nighttime thunderstorms are ongoing, primarily for counties along and just south of the NY Thruway. Despite nocturnal timing, plenty of instability remains due to steepening midlevel lapse rates aloft, and forcing from a left exit region of a strong jet. Convective Available Potential Energy exceeds 1000 J/kg and much of it is in upper portions of the storms, with tops reaching above 50 kft at times. This is generating copious frequent lightning. Hail and strong downdrafts will be possible from these storms. Also, some street/small stream flooding may occur where intersections of multiple cells overlaps. Previous discussion... For Monday, the main upper trough will swing into southwestern Ontario, with several bands of rain and embedded thunder possible. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out again, but will be highly dependent on how convection evolves overnight into the morning hours. At this time, it appears areas east of I-81 will be most likely to recover and destabilize before the main trough swings through. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 300 PM Update... Some patchy fog could hang around Tuesday morning, but should lift soon after sunrise. A couple of weak shortwaves and low level moisture will provide some support for a few spotty showers on Tuesday. With a few hundred J/kg of CAPE present, afternoon thunderstorms are also possible. Not much is expected for accumulations, up to a couple of tenths at best. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to mid 70s as northerly flow advects cooler air into the area. Showers and skies clear out Tuesday night as high pressure moves in. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s and 50s Sunny skies are in store for Wednesday. However, with northerly flow still present, highs will once again be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This cooler air will provide plenty of natural AC as lows drop into the 40s Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 300 PM Update... The start of the long term period will start out quiet. High temps on Thursday will be in the 70s and the lows will fall into the upper 40s and low 50s. Friday will also be fairly quiet, but the pattern begins to shift. A ridge moves through and flow becomes more southwesterly, bringing warmer air and moisture to the area. Highs will be closer to 80 on Friday. Chances for precipitation increase Friday evening as a cold front approaches the area. This cold front will bring rain showers and possibly some thunderstorms through Saturday night. Models still differ on the timing of this system with GFS still being the faster solution, so followed National Blend of Guidance (NBM) for the timing which is a little slower like the ECMWF. Sunday looks to be cooler to finish out the weekend with also a slight chance for showers with the passing of a weak system. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Thunderstorms will impact KRME 06Z-08Z. Most of the terminals will experience varying restrictions from trapped moisture in the wake of shower/storm clusters. IFR valley fog is expected to develop at KELM; at least fuel alternate ceiling forming for KAVP-KBGM-KRME if not briefly IFR. Early morning restrictions probably only minor for KITH-KSYR. Though improvement to mainly VFR occurs mid to late morning, another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon. PROB30 or TEMPO groups have been included accordingly in the TAFs, though timing will need to be fine-tuned as confidence in details increases. Variable or light south-southwest wind, will veer more westerly 5-8 knots this afternoon-evening, but strong erratic gusts are possible near any thunderstorms. Outlook... Late Monday night-early Tuesday...Some restrictions possible with lower ceilings and/or patchy fog. Tuesday midday through afternoon...Chance of additional showers and thunderstorms/associated intermittent restrictions. Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR, though valley fog probable at KELM late nights-early mornings. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...BJG/MDP/MPH SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MDP

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