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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 191717
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring clear weather and very mild days to NY
and PA through the weekend. A weak front will usher a few
showers into the region at the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will bring mild temperatures and clear skies to
the region through Friday. Patchy dense fog is expected each
morning, especially along the river valleys.

Temperatures will rise into the lower-70s Thursday, fall into
the middle-40s Thursday night, and rebound into the middle-70s
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
340 am update...

High pressure will remain in control through the period, with
very little overall changes made from the previous forecast.
With the high pressure overhead, Friday night into Saturday
morning will be favorable for valley fog development and may be
locally dense in some areas. Temperatures will remain above
normal, with high confidence of widespread high temperatures at
least into the mid 70s on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model guidance has slowed the arrival of a cold front from
Sunday evening/night to maybe as late as Monday afternoon now. A
blend of model guidance keeps chance PoP overnight Sunday into
Monday morning and is now introducing likely PoP by Monday
afternoon. So the remainder of the weekend is looking mostly
rain-free, and deep SW return flow will send temperatures well
above normal on Sunday, with highs possibly in the low 80s for
much of the area.

Most of the model guidance has the cold front through the region
by Monday night, with high pressure and cooler temperatures
moving in for Tuesday and should persist for the remainder of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly clear skies, light winds, and VFR conditions expected at
all terminals through this evening. However, once again
conditions become favorable for valley fog tonight...after 06Z
where IFR conditions are likely at KELM through 13Z Friday
morning.

Outlook...
Friday through Sunday...VFR except late night/early morning
valley fog expected for at least KELM; possibly KITH and KBGM
for brief periods as well.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but some
restrictions possible in showers as front crosses, especially
Monday afternoon and evening.

Tuesday...VFR conditions likely with high pressure building in.
May see some patchy fog at KELM in the morning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BJT/DJP