Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281424 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1024 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to bring dry weather and seasonable temperatures today. A low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to bring some rain on Friday to parts of Northeast PA and Central NY, especially across the Poconos and Catskills. Dry weather returns on Saturday and is expected to last right into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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945 AM Update... Valley fog is finally diminishing across the region. Temps have climbed into the low 50s and continue to remain on track for highs in the mid 60s to low 70s across the area. The forecast remains on track from the previous update with minimal changes made based on the latest guidance. 355 AM Update: High pressure will keep conditions dry again today, with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures (highs mainly in the 60s to near 70). By this afternoon, we will be sandwiched in between an upper level trough moving eastward across the Great Lakes and an inverted trough/weak coastal low developing off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a result, clouds will slowly increase this afternoon, especially across the Poconos-Catskills. This will also result in slightly cooler temperatures across the Poconos-Catskills with highs likely topping out in the upper 50s to lower 60s there. Any rain is expected to hold off until tonight, with the bulk of the rain occurring during the day on Friday. Clouds will increase tonight area-wide as the above mentioned two features continue to approach the area. Some rain showers are also expected to develop (mainly after midnight). Greatest chance for rain showers will be across the Poconos-Catskills, closer to the inverted trough located offshore. With the increased cloud cover, temperatures will be quite a bit warmer than previous nights, with lows expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. On Friday, the weak coastal low and inverted trough will bring rain to parts of the area, especially across the Poconos- Catskills. Latest model guidance continues the trend of bringing rain farther inland/west. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the Poconos-Catskills, although the greatest threat for heavy rainfall/flooding will likely be located east of our area/closer to the coast. As is usually the case with this type of setup, a lot of uncertainty remains regarding how far west the rain gets and where a steadier/heavier band of rain may set up. Farther west, rain will be more of a showery nature and will be rather light. Highs are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with the coolest temperatures located east of I-81 with more cloud cover/rain-cooled air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM Update... An exiting low pressure east of our area will have some lingering rain showers over NE PA and the Catskills region through through Saturday morning. These lingering showers are likely to produce no more than a quarter of an inch of rain for Saturday over the aforementioned areas. As this system slowly moves eastward through Saturday morning, a trend for dry conditions is expected to begin Saturday late afternoon and through next week. Cloud cover begins to diminish rather quickly starting Saturday afternoon, going from mostly cloudy skies for the majority of areas to mostly clear skies overnight Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 400 AM Update... A period of dry conditions and a warming temperature trend over our area begins Sunday as high pressure builds. Slightly above seasonable temperatures can be expected, with temperatures on Sunday reaching into the low- to mid-70s for the majority of areas. A gradual warming trend through the week will likely peak on Wednesday in the mid- to high-70s, with some areas in Central NY potentially hitting 80 degrees as their high temperature. Although far out in time, the breakdown of the high pressure over our area through the week will begin on Wednesday night. Guidance hints at the next potential system that will bring some rain showers doesn`t appear to impact our area until after the forecast period. For now, higher confidence leans on remaining dry and warm through Wednesday. We`ll continue evaluating guidance for the timing of the next potential time for showers or impactful weather. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Valley fog is expected to bring IFR visby restrictions to KELM this morning, before dissipating by 13Z or so. Elsewhere, conditions are expected to remain VFR through most today. Increasing clouds will likely bring in MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions this evening/tonight to all terminals except for KSYR and KRME. IFR ceilings are possible at KELM. If clouds move in slower than expected, restrictions at KELM may be from fog instead of stratus, but chances are that ceilings will be the cause of restrictions rather than visbys. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR for KSYR/KRME; rest mainly MVFR restrictions in low clouds and showers. Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...BJG

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