Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 231924 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 324 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving storm will move into southeast Ontario this weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for the rest of today and Sunday, before a cold front brings drier air into the region Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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230 pm update... A low level southeast flow of moist air under an inversion has kept clouds over the area. Some slow lifting and thinning of the clouds as the flow shifts south. Convection in central PA is moving NE into the area this afternoon ahead of a weak surface boundary and decent upper level wave. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe with shear of 30kts and cape under a 1k. Timing with some heating will be late afternoon Scranton to Penn Yan but then weakening as it moves further east into cooler air where more clouds have been. With high pwats thunderstorms could drop a quick inch of rain. This shouldn`t be a problem given the recent dryness. Late tonight fairly quiet with isolated showers and clouds filling back in and lowering. Forcing will have lifted to the northeast. Lows around 60 with light fog. Sunday a slow improvement in sky conditions but with a short wave trough and surface low convection will be common again during the afternoon. Again weak instability and winds, so thunderstorms should be weak. With more sun highs in the 70s, but mid level cooling weak so lapse rates remain low. Sunday night the rain moves out quickly as high pressure moves in. Most of the showers will be in the evening and light. Lows again near the dewpoints from the mid 50s to around 60 south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Period should be dry as a trof and surface front depart to the east early Monday, and high pressure over the GReat Lakes builds in. There is a small chance that a light shower could pop up over the Catskills which is under the western edge of the upper cold pool, but the possibility is below the chance threshold so will blend with the surrounding offices and keep them out. Tuesday morning will be quite chilly under Canadian high pressure and light winds. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Upper wave and surface low tracks north of the region Wednesday, with a trailing cold front well down into the mid Atlantic. Even the EURO is quite robust with the pops and QPF but a bit slower with the advance of the system. In any event, likely pops seem reasonable for 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, with lingering chance pops into Thursday afternoon with some leftover instability in the cool air advection. High pressure at the surface and aloft slowly builds in through the end of the period. Northwest flow will continue to keep a chance or slight chance of showers, especially over the northern zones, before the ridge caps things for the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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130 pm update... Only a few rain showers now but showers and thunderstorms are increasing in central PA which will move northeast into the area. Late this afternoon and evening have tempos for rain showers for most and thunderstorms at SYR. MVFR now will rise some in first 9 hours but fall back to IFR cigs late tonight into Sunday morning. In the first few hours maybe some VFR at ELM. IFR late tonight will be accompanied by MVFR vsbys. Conditions will not improve Sunday until after 15z then only to fuel alternate. Southeast to south winds at 5 to 10 kts into early evening. Late tonight light and variable winds. Midday Sunday west winds around 6 kts. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...Showers and restrictive conditions are possible. Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers and storms.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...TAC

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