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393
FXUS61 KBGM 100016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
816 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
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Isolated thunderstorms added to the forecast this evening,
mainly for west of I-81. Frost mentioned Tuesday morning where
the growing season has started.
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&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms weaken as they move into the region
tonight.

2) A quiet stretch of weather is expected early next week;
frost is possible Tuesday morning.


3) An active pattern looks to return mid to late next week, as
the overall weather pattern begins to trend warmer into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms to
develop looks to be present across WNY and WPA late this
afternoon into the evening. However, we have been firmly under a
stratus deck today due to a warm front lifting northward. As a
result, the showers and thunderstorms should weaken quickly as
they move through the Finger Lakes eastward to the I-81 corridor
due to the loss of instability. The cold front will be slow to
exit the region so a few lingering showers Sunday in NEPA are
not out of the question. Warmer temperatures tonight given the
clouds and highs Sunday should get to at least 60.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure will slowly build into the region by Tuesday.
Winds have trended lighter for the early morning hours Tuesday.
With clear skies and temperatures falling into the low and mid
30`s, the potential for frost formation is present. If the
potential increases headlines may be needed for portions of the
Finger Lakes and Wyoming Valley where the growing season has
started.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures slowly warm up for the remainder of the week.
However, a slow moving low pressure system looks to dive into
the Ohio Valley and off the Mid-Atlantic coast. While timing
differences are present within the ensemble suites, a fairly
uniform signal exists for more showers. Highest chances look to
be Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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Clouds have scattered out around the terminals early this
evening, but another round of quick-hitting showers is expected
with the next upper-level shortwave and frontal boundary working
their way through tonight. With the late-day breaks of
sunshine, some modest instability has developed, so an isolated
thunderstorm embedded in the line of showers cannot be ruled
out, but given low confidence on where some lingering lightning
strikes may be, this will be handled via TEMPO as necessary. The
main timeframe for the next batch of showers to move through is
03Z-07Z. Behind the frontal boundary, there can be a brief
period of lowering ceilings prior to or around daybreak,
especially around the NY terminals, before west to northwesterly
winds increase during the mid-morning and into the afternoon
and usher in drier air and the return of VFR conditions. With a
light and variable wind becoming more southwesterly early
tomorrow morning, some patchy fog can`t be ruled out at AVP
coming up the Wyoming Valley.

Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected tomorrow after
15Z-16Z. A few isolated showers can`t be ruled out tomorrow
afternoon around AVP, generally after 18Z.

Outlook:

Sunday Night...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Tuesday evening...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with associated
restrictions as low pressure pivots into the region.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWG
AVIATION...BJT/DK