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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 060737
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
337 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty showers end this morning as a front finishes pushing
through the area, though clouds will linger for a time today
before scattering by late afternoon. Thursday will be mainly
dry, but a small chance of showers and isolated thunder will
creep in from the south late Thursday into Friday. A dry
weekend is forecast, with slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...
A mostly dry near term period is anticipated as weak high
pressure skims by the region.

With a cold front just slipping through before dawn, we will be
in a post-frontal environment today with a shallow deck of
clouds and even a couple lingering spits from them especially in
Central New York. That said, cold front is a bit of a misnomer,
in that as clouds gradually scatter this afternoon for at least
partial sunshine we will still manage lower 70s to lower 80s
for highs; little changed from yesterday. The incoming air mass
though indeed is somewhat cooler overall and certainly drier.
This will become more obvious tonight as temperatures fall into
the 50s-lower 60s. It would go lower except that the weak high
pressure will be centered to our north, and we will have some
cloud cover especially in Northeast PA-Southern Tier NY to
prevent better radiational cooling.

Models continue to trend drier at least for during the day
Thursday. Very weak convergence and increasing dewpoints could
manage to burp up a few diurnally-forced showers and isolated
thunder in vicinity of the Poconos, Wyoming Valley, and perhaps
sneaking towards the southwestern Catskills. Overall though most
of the area and time will be dry Thursday with highs of mid
70s-lower 80s. Clouds will be more dominant in Northeast PA but
at least partial sunshine can be anticipated in Central NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
330 AM Update

After a period of dry weather for the middle of the week, a chance
for showers and thunderstorms will return into Thursday night as an
upper trough starts to dig into the region. There continues to be a
fair amount of disagreement among the model guidance on just when
rain should finally start to move in. This appears due in part to
the surface high, and co-located upper ridge, which remain situated
over New England into Thursday night. If these features are slower
to break down than some of the guidance would suggest, this could
delay the onset of showers until the daytime Friday as the shortwave
moves through and drags a weak cold front into the region. Some
thunder cannot be ruled out during the day Friday with a little
instability indicated in model soundings.

Temperatures will start off fairly mild in the upper 50s to lower
60s Friday, then will peak in the 70s to lower 80s during the
afternoon. Cooler, drier air working in behind the front will allow
temperatures to fall back further Friday night, into the lower to
mid 50s under clearing skies.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
330 AM Update...

High pressure gradually building over the weekend will allow for dry
and quiet weather Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures running
slightly below average given the cooler airmass in place. We should
be able to stay dry into early next week before the ridge begins to
shift eastward later Monday and rain chances finally start to work
back in Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. After a cooler
weekend, expect temperatures to come in a little warmer than the
previous days as flow shifting out of the south/southwest advects in
a warmer airmass.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Post frontal ceilings are in the process of forming, and will
reach fuel alternate to IFR levels for most terminals early this
morning. Gradual improvement will occur as we head towards mid
day, and lifting/scattering occur this afternoon. Mainly VFR
this afternoon-evening. Initial west wind will veer northwest or
even north-northwest as the day carries on; a few gusts into
lower-mid teens knots but sustained generally under 10 knots.

Outlook...

Late Wednesday night through Thursday mid day...Moist frontal
boundary drifting northward may cause ceiling restrictions to
redevelop for KELM-KAVP-KBGM; perhaps KITH. VFR KSYR-KRME.

Late Thursday through Friday...Scattered showers/isolated
thunder could cause intermittent restrictions.

Friday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...MDP