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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 221435
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1035 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move into the region along a frontal boundary
bringing showers today. This front will depart the region on
Tuesday. High pressure will then build into the region for the
remainder of the weak.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 am update...
No major changes made to the forecast this morning. Only
adjustments made were timing and location of the band of steady
rain moving through...and just a slightly quicker exit east out
of the area later tonight. Still may see a few thunderstorms
over ne PA and portions of the srn Catskills in NY later today,
which could trigger some heavier downpours.

Previous Discussion...
With the sunrise update confidence has increased with the
forecast as modeling is coming around to a more accurate initial
depiction of the showers and thunderstorms. The major changes
with this update include bringing more QPF further northwest as
it appears that the entire region should get in on decent shower
activity today. Rest of discussion below.

Today:

Low pressure across the Ohio valley will track northeast along a
stationary boundary to our south. Jet dynamics along with isentropic
lift along the boundary look favorable for the development of
widespread showers this morning. The WRF-ARW and WRF-NMM appear to
have the best handle on the evolution so this forecast is primarily
weighted with those models. The showers should develop across the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes this morning before shifting south
and east throughout the day.

With plenty of deep moisture around (PW values 2 inches)
these showers will be heavy at times particularly across
NE PA into the Southern Catskills. Some limited instability
is likely to be transported into these regions along with
the potential for the front to slow down some this evening
and extend the duration of any showers. With that said,
we have issued a flash flood watch for Scranton/ Wilkes Barre
region northeast to Sullivan county NY. Modeled QPF is from
1-2 inches in this area. While, FFG is slightly higher than this.
Locally higher amounts of QPF will likely occur in a few
locations. Some of these locations also has several rounds of
thunderstorms yesterday as well.

Any strong to severe thunderstorms at this point looks more
isolated than the last couple of days and confined to the areas
where weak instability is present. Some gusty winds would be the
main threat with any strong to severe thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be quite the reversal of the past few days today.
A cooler airmass will continue into the region behind the front.
This will be coupled with clouds and rain. Both of these factors
will keep temperatures down in the 60`s and 70`s today.

Tonight:

The cold front will slowly depart the region taking the last round
of showers with it across NE PA and the Southern Catskills in the
evening. However, low clouds will be rather stubborn behind the
front given weak northwest flow. However, many spots could see upper
50`s for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
425 AM Update...
Fairly quiet period is anticipated through midweek with
temperatures actually slightly below normal. Quite a change from
recent weather.

Models have trended slightly faster on the exit of the front.
Deeper moisture and thus showers may linger initially early
Tuesday morning mainly east of I-81 in Northeast PA and to the
Catskills of NY, but a fresh dry air mass will be advecting in.
Clouds will take longer to leave compared to showers, yet
gradual clearing will occur from west to east Tuesday afternoon
through evening. This will lead to a quiet night with valley fog
formation, which could be locally thick thanks to moisture of
prior rainfall.

Upper trough axis will take its time swinging through Wednesday
into Thursday. With the resulting cool air aloft, diurnally-
forced instability will pop up a minor cumulus field on
otherwise mostly sunny days. There could even be isolated
afternoon showers in parts of Central NY but vast majority of
the area and time will be dry because of a lack of moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
425 AM Update...
With at least flat upper ridging, and gradual warm air
advection, temperatures will skew back to slightly above normal
as we head into next weekend. However, dewpoints will only
slowly creep up thanks to persistent high pressure with a
surface ridge from New England down the Appalachians. This will
keep our weather dry, though an isolated shower or storm cannot
be ruled out Sunday. Better chances wait until after the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions through mid-morning will gradually give way to
developing MVFR ceilings with showers by this afternoon. Timing
of the MVFR ceiling and visibility restrictions still have some
uncertainty but a general downward trend is expected. Even
though the showers end by this evening ceilings are still
likely to lower to IFR levels. IFR ceilings look predominant
tonight with a slow improvement just beyond the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Mainly VFR other than valley fog for
KELM in the predawn hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MWG