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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 231924
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 PM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
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A slow moving storm will move into southeast Ontario this
weekend. Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast for
the rest of today and Sunday, before a cold front brings drier
air into the region Sunday night and Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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230 pm update...

A low level southeast flow of moist air under an inversion has
kept clouds over the area. Some slow lifting and thinning of the
clouds as the flow shifts south. Convection in central PA is
moving NE into the area this afternoon ahead of a weak surface
boundary and decent upper level wave. Thunderstorms are not
expected to be severe with shear of 30kts and cape under a 1k.
Timing with some heating will be late afternoon Scranton to Penn
Yan but then weakening as it moves further east into cooler air
where more clouds have been. With high pwats thunderstorms could
drop a quick inch of rain. This shouldn`t be a problem given the
recent dryness.

Late tonight fairly quiet with isolated showers and clouds
filling back in and lowering. Forcing will have lifted to the
northeast. Lows around 60 with light fog.

Sunday a slow improvement in sky conditions but with a short
wave trough and surface low convection will be common again
during the afternoon. Again weak instability and winds, so
thunderstorms should be weak. With more sun highs in the 70s,
but mid level cooling weak so lapse rates remain low.

Sunday night the rain moves out quickly as high pressure moves
in. Most of the showers will be in the evening and light. Lows
again near the dewpoints from the mid 50s to around 60 south.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Period should be dry as a trof and surface front depart to the
east early Monday, and high pressure over the GReat Lakes builds
in. There is a small chance that a light shower could pop up
over the Catskills which is under the western edge of the upper
cold pool, but the possibility is below the chance threshold so
will blend with the surrounding offices and keep them out.

Tuesday morning will be quite chilly under Canadian high
pressure and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper wave and surface low tracks north of the region Wednesday,
with a trailing cold front well down into the mid Atlantic.
Even the EURO is quite robust with the pops and QPF but a bit
slower with the advance of the system. In any event, likely pops
seem reasonable for 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday, with
lingering chance pops into Thursday afternoon with some
leftover instability in the cool air advection. High pressure at
the surface and aloft slowly builds in through the end of the
period. Northwest flow will continue to keep a chance or slight
chance of showers, especially over the northern zones, before
the ridge caps things for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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130 pm update...

Only a few rain showers now but showers and thunderstorms are
increasing in central PA which will move northeast into the
area. Late this afternoon and evening have tempos for rain
showers for most and thunderstorms at SYR.

MVFR now will rise some in first 9 hours but fall back to IFR
cigs late tonight into Sunday morning. In the first few hours
maybe some VFR at ELM. IFR late tonight will be accompanied by
MVFR vsbys. Conditions will not improve Sunday until after 15z
then only to fuel alternate.

Southeast to south winds at 5 to 10 kts into early evening. Late
tonight light and variable winds. Midday Sunday west winds
around 6 kts.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...Showers and restrictive
conditions are possible.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers
and storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...TAC