Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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727 FXUS61 KBGM 250530 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 130 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slowly clear our skies overnight leaving a partly cloudy and cool night. A front approaching from the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area Saturday and Sunday, but most of the time will be rain free. High pressure will build back into the area for a dry Memorial Day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Only minor adjustments to the near term forecast with the evening and midnight updates. Did add in some patchy fog for a few hours late tonight as the area sees good radiational cooling, down near the dew point (and light winds). Otherwise, no major changes in the latest guidance for the convection/thunderstorm activity on Saturday; although it seems the activity could linger a bit longer into the evening hours than previously expected. Scattered to bkn strato-cu clouds still lingering in the higher elevations of the Catskills, and expect this to continue late into the evening and perhaps even overnight. Another band of high clouds is approaching from the west, but with high pressure building overhead expect some clearing later tonight. Where it does clear out and radiate, some patchy fog is also possible, mainly between 2-7 AM. Cool, with lows 45-52. Saturday looks like a mostly dry day, but mostly cloudy as warm moist air pushes back into the region from the midwest. Surface warm front will stall somewhere over western NY leaving a strong low level inversion over much of the forecast area. So, expect mainly elevated convection to develop later Saturday as the cold front cuts in. Threat for severe should be limited to the extreme western parts of the area, mainly the Finger Lakes where any damaging winds may be able to break through to the surface. Soundings seem to indicate winds as the primary threat. One final line of thunderstorm activity looks to push through the area from NW to SE Saturday evening...and this could bring a period of heavier rain and gusty winds, Any lingering showers after midnight will be confined to the far south and southeast parts of the forecast are, primarily NEPA. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Sunday/Sunday night...Secondary trough crosses the region during the late morning/afternoon period. Models indicate modest instability across northeast Pennsylvania during the afternoon and an approaching mid level wave may enhance the activity. Will continue with chance POPs for thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and from the twin tiers south. By afternoon the northern forecast area should be dry with frontal position south of the area. The convection could linger into the evening period especially in northeast Pennsylvania due to weak boundary and passing mid level short wave. Highs will range in the mid 70s to around 80. Monday...Memorial Day looks dry with ridging both aloft and at the surface. Highs will be in the 70s under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The pattern remains active with rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through late week. Monday night/Tuesday, an initial surface wave lifts through the eastern Great Lakes and pushes a warm front/surface trough across the area. The activity Monday night will hold off til late with the best chance for showers/thunderstorms occurring on Tuesday across central New York. The boundary will remained draped across the local area Tuesday night and Wednesday continuing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday night/Thursday, a stronger system lifts through the central Great Lakes bringing the boundary back north as a warm front with the trailing cold front expected late Wednesday night into Thursday. More showers and thunderstorms are anticipated with the highest POPs across the northern forecast area. Friday looks dry as surface high pressure builds in behind the cold front. Temperatures through the period look fairly close to seasonal except for Wednesday when the area may reside in the warm sector will highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR through the TAF period. The possibility of some shallow and brief MVFR fog is still present at KITH, KBGM and KELM for a few hours before sunrise. ANy fog will quickly burn off. With confidence increasing on some showers the 06Z TAF set narrowed the windows for showers a bit. One batch of VFR scattered VFR showers is expected in the afternoon. Showers look more widespread and heavier in the evening hours with lowering ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR and perhaps IFR range as a result. Outlook... Saturday night...Showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions likely. Sunday...VFR north. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, with possible brief restrictions for KELM, KBGM and KAVP. Memorial Day...VFR conditions expected. Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorm may bring brief restriction at some terminals in the afternoon and evening hours. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM NEAR TERM...DGM/MJM/MWG SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...MWG

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