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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 230840
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
340 AM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will give way to dual low pressure systems
tracking north and east into the region on Sunday. These low
pressure systems will bring rain on Sunday followed by strong
winds. Some snow showers will linger on the backside of the
departing lows Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure over the region will give way to dual low pressure
systems tracking toward the region from the southwest. One
center will head into the Great Lakes with the second tracking
up the east coast. Clouds will increase and thicken later today
as the low pressure systems move northward toward our region.
highs should be able to get to around 40 or in the low 40`s
today.

Moisture will overrun a warm front leading to several rounds of
light precipitation tonight and on Sunday. Enough low level
cold air looks to be in place across Sullivan, Otsego and
Delaware counties for light freezing and sleet this evening
before a change to rain around sunrise Sunday. Given the
potential for some icy spots, a winter weather advisory has
been issued for these counties. Widely patchy and brief
freezing rain can not be ruled in other areas east of I-81 in PA
and NY. However, coverage looks too low for an advisory but
will mention this in the HWO. Any icing looks rather light and
under a tenth of an inch regionwide. Using a hi-Res NAM, RGEM
and national blend gives us overall QPF amounts of 1/4 to 1/2
inch by late Sunday. Even with some snow melting that is not
enough QPF for flooding concerns at this time.

The hi-res NAM was also utilized with temperatures, showing the
low-level cold hang on longer which typically occurs in these
setups. Temperatures look to start the night in the 30`s and
slowly rise by Sunday morning as the warm front moves through.

With our region in the warm sector on Sunday, steadier
precipitation should gradually become more showery. Potential
is present for temperatures to quickly spike ahead of a cold
front expected to pass through late Sunday. Timing a temperature
spike ahead of the front, perhaps as warm as the 50`s in a few
spots provides some uncertainty. Winds will also be on the
increase as well with the developing low pressure system with
westerly gusts by late afternoon in the 30-40 mph range. This
seems very attainable based on a look of modeled soundings
showing steep lapse rates and favorable conditions for the
stronger gusts to be transported to the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

335 AM UPDATE...

Little change in the models for this update. Still showing the
potential for damaging winds from late Sunday through Monday.
Strongest winds will be over the Finger Lakes to near SYR that
will be closer the rapidly deepening low and tightest pressure
grid. Also, areas nearer the lake will see less surface
frictional loss in the flatter terrain. Other very strong gusts
will be over the higher terrain all the way east into the
Catskills.

Only other weather note for the period is the return to
seasonable temperatures and lake effect snow showers which will
likely accumulate a few inches over the typical areas in the
northern zones.

Previous discussion continues below.

***Potential increasing for very strong, damaging winds for the
northern tier of Pennsylvania and all of Central NY Late Sunday into
Monday***

Sunday: A powerful storm system will pass by well to the northwest
of our area. However, this system will drag a strong cold front
through the region during the day Sunday. Sunday morning the
forecast area will still be in the warm sector of this system, with
gusty south winds, periods of rain, and mild temperatures. Still
cannot rule out some very localized freezing rain over the higher
terrain of northern Sullivan county during the early morning hours.
Also, cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as the strong front moves
through mid to late morning. Soundings show small amounts of
instability, mostly elevated. As the front goes through strong cold
air advection develops Sunday afternoon, but surface temperatures
still rise into the upper 40s to mid-50s areawide. On and off rain
showers continue into Sunday afternoon, with  total rainfall amounts
(Sat night - Sunday) ranging from one-third to three-quarters of an
inch. Southwest winds increase between 15-25 mph, with gusts up to
40 mph by sunset.

Sunday Night and Monday: Strong cold air advection and
increasing wind energy moves into our forecast area behind the
cold front. Strong pressure rises and deep mixing produces the
strongest winds after midnight, working from west to east across
the region. With the storm track up across Central Canada
(970-975mb low), the strongest winds still seem to be focused
from the northern tier of PA up across central NY...with the
maxima potentially setting up from near Penn Yan to Syracuse and
Rome. Brought the high wind watch a few counties south and
east...now including Bradford, Susquehanna, northern Wayne,
Sullivan (NY) and points north/west. GFS and MAV guidance has
stronger winds compared to the NAM/ MET guidance...but with this
set up feel there is at least a 50 percent chance of reaching
those higher winds (gusts greater than 58 mph) within the watch
area....GFS BUFKIT momentum transfer shows peak gusts 50-58 kts
across much of our forecast area...but this may be a little over
done down toward Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. GFS 30 meter winds
are over 50-55kts Sunday night into Monday morning. Boundary
layer winds also peak during this 06z - 15z Monday time period.
Daytime mixing increase and keeps winds strong/gusty through
midday or afternoon Monday. These wind speeds certainly have the
potential to take down trees and powerlines. Wind gusts may not
drop below 30-35 mph until Monday evening...so power outages
may be long duration, especially in the watch area.

The other, much more minor issue will be the lake
effect/upslope snow showers this period across Central
NY...especially Cortland and Norwich north. In this area could see
localized 2-4 inches amounts, with more widespread 1-2 inch amounts.
Any snow that does fall and accumulate will certainly be
blowing/drifting around. Temperatures fall into the mid-20s to near
30 Sunday night...then only warm a few degrees Monday...into the
upper 20s and lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

335 AM UPDATE...

Relatively quiet weather period with occasional light snow or
snow showers and seasonable temperatures. High pressure over the
northern plains noses east to the mid Atlantic keeping a supply
of cold air on a northwest flow. Made a few adjustments to the
weather and temperatures nearer the latest guidance, but overall
the forecast remains unchanged.

350 PM Update...

Monday night and Tuesday features cold weather, with lingering lake
effect snow showers on a WNW flow. Should be mainly dry and partly
cloudy for NE PA this period. Snow accumulations look light for this
period across north-central NY. Northwest winds decrease, between 10-
20 mph Monday night, then 8 to 15 mph Tuesday. Cold overnight lows
in the 10s...with highs mostly in the 20s. Uncertainty returns
Tuesday night as the GFS brings a weather system through the area
and a period of light snow. Meanwhile the ECWMF and CMC sweep
another, almost arctic front through the area from the north with
just scattered snow showers. For now, used a blend of the latest
guidance which gave chance PoPs for snow showers. Cold with lows in
the upper single digits north to mid teens south.

Wednesday`s forecast is highly uncertain. The GFS and Canadian
continue to show a weak wave moving through the area from the
midwest, which may bring some light snow to the area, depending on
the track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF continues to show the area under
high pressure with mainly dry conditions. For now, kept chance POPs
in the forecast for light snow due to the uncertainty. Should the
GFS/Canadian solution pan out, some lingering snow showers are
possible Wednesday night, especially in CNY where there could be
lake effect or lake enhanced snow showers. High pressure then likely
builds in for Thursday through Friday, bringing drier conditions.

Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs
generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens
and lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR with light winds through the morning. Very light fog is
possible between and sunrise at all TAF sites with the highest
chances at KAVP and KELM. Winds later today will increase a bit
from the south and southeast gradually today and tonight. Some
wind gusts by late evening may approach 15-20 knots. Ceilings
will lower, likely to MVFR with rain moving in after 00z Sunday.
LLWS also looks possible just beyond the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday morning...Restrictions likely with rain, perhaps briefly
mixed with sleet at first. Low level wind shear likely after 06Z
Sunday morning from strong SSW low level jet.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Rain showers changing back to
snow showers but also mainly impacting the NY terminals with
intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected,
especially KSYR.

Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions but brief
restrictions possible at KRME/KSYR in snow showers.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Restrictions possible in light
snow.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
     for PAZ038>040.
NY...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
     for NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ046-057-062.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon
     for NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...DGM/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/DGM
AVIATION...MWG