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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 181535
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1035 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm moving through the Great Lakes will bring snow and
patchy sleet to NY and PA today and tonight. Lake effect snow
will increase across our northern counties tonight into
Sunday.Generally quiet, but cold weather expected into early
next week with scattered lake effect snow showers lingering.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

1020 AM Update...Current radar shows a band of moderate to heavy
snow from near Hornell down into Bradford,Wyoming and Luzerne
county. This will continue to lift northeast across the rest of
the region by midday or early afternoon. There may be a brief
lull behind this initial band, but more snow (and some sleet)
arrive for mid to late afternoon hours and will likely be
moderate in intensity. Snow amounts still look on track with no
major changes with this update. Did remove the mention of
freezing drizzle that was in the forecast this afternoon and
pushed that back to this evening. Concerns are for localized
near blizzard conditions across the higher terrain of CNY as
southeast winds increase 15-25 mph gusting 30-35 mph late this
afternoon...visibility could occasionally be less than 1/4SM
during this time. Other concern is that southern Oneida County
could get close to low end warning criteria with a burst of
heavy snow this afternoon and evening. Have amounts ranging from
5 inches near Utica, but it could be 7-8 inches up near Rome.
Decided to stick with a high end winter weather advisory for
now, but will closely monitor trends here (and elsewhere).


225 AM Update...

A powerful storm tracking through the Ohio Valley will spread
snow across NY and PA this morning into tonight. The storm will
arrive in the Central Southern Tier between 8 AM and 10 AM, then
reach the I-81 corridor between 10 AM and noon.

Snow will become heavy at times across the northern tier of the
forecast area, mainly from the northern Finger Lakes into the
Western Mohawk Valley, where synoptic forcing, orographic lift,
and moisture enhancement off Lake Ontario will lead to several
inches of snow. In addition, surface winds will gust at 20 to 30
mph, producing areas of blowing snow and low visibilities. A
general 2 to 5 inches of snow will fall across much of the
forecast area. Higher amounts of 5-7 inches will accumulate
along the high terrain of the northern Susquehanna region and
over portions of the Finger Lakes and Western Mohawk Valley.
Close to a foot of new snow will fall across the northern half
of Oneida County.

By Saturday night, snow will weaken across the southern portion
of the forecast area while lake effect snows increase. An
additional 4 to 6 inches of snow could fall over Northern Oneida
County by sunrise.

Lake effect snow showers will continue Sunday from Onondaga to
Oneida County, but will be most persistent over Northern Oneida,
where another 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
325 AM Update...

Lake bands will continue into Sunday night, but ridging and
drier air starts to push into the region and NW flow turns to a
more northerly position with the ridge building in. Snow showers
should taper to mostly flurries by Monday afternoon as the
column continue to dry out as strong surface ridge continues to
build eastward across the region. Temperatures will be quite
cold to start the week as well with wind chills below zero for a
large portion of the area early Monday morning and highs on
Monday will only climb to the upper teens across the north, low
20s in the Twin Tiers and into the mid to upper 20s across the
Scranton/Wilkes Barre area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
330 AM Update...

High pressure will move into the Eastern CONUS and dominates
the weather through the work week. By mid-week, the center of
the high reaches the Carolinas and we should see a warm up as SW
return flow develops Wednesday. Guidance is then in good
agreement that warm above average temperatures should persist
right through the end of the week. The is also no major threat
for precipitation, until after the Day 7 period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
640 AM update...

VFR conditions early this morning will degrade to MVFR and IFR
as snow spreads across the terminals during the late morning and
early afternoon hours. A little sleet or freezing drizzle could
mix in with the snow through Saturday night, especially toward
KITH and KELM.

Winds will increase this afternoon and gust at 20 to 30 knots
through the overnight hours. This will cause blowing and
drifting snow, further reducing visibilities.

Outlook...

Saturday evening through Sunday...IFR restrictions as snow and
blowing snow continue but start to taper off south to north. May
also see a brief period of freezing drizzle Saturday night south
of Syracuse. Snow...persists the longest at KRME.

Monday and Tuesday...Restrictions possible in snow showers in
CNY. AVP VFR.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-072.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ048.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ015>018-022>025-044-045-055-056.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ036-037-046-057-062.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP/MJM
NEAR TERM...DJP/MJM
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...DJP