Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 191035 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 635 AM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide mainly clear skies but cold temperatures through tonight. Although we`re still watching an east coast storm, in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame, present indications are that any light snow, will be confined to the Poconos and Catskills. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Early this morning a shallow layer of moisture is moving through the region behind a weak surface boundary. By mid morning skies are expected to become mostly sunny as high pressure in eastern Canada builds south across the area. Temperatures will remain cool even with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the northern forecast area will range in the middle to upper 20s with the southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania in the lower to middle 30s but the Wyoming Valley near 40. Tonight, high pressure over eastern Canada will keep its influence over the area with mainly clear skies. High clouds will increase over northeast Pennsylvania late tonight. Lows will fall into the 5 to 15 degrees range in central New York and 15 to 20 over northeast Pennsylvania. On Tuesday morning the initial low forming over the southeast will lift quickly out to sea as it moves off the North Carolina coast. By late day as the upper level trough deepens over the southeast another low will develop under the upper level feature in the Tennessee Valley as a secondary low develops again near coastal North Carolina. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF keep the area dry through 00Z Wed. There will continue to be a very tight moisture gradient on the north side of the system with cold/dry Canadian high pressure and continued northeast surface flow. Will keep just slight chance pops in the far southeast forecast area Tuesday afternoon. Highs will range in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 420 AM Update... Main forecast challenge remains evolution of a complicated coastal system. While odds are it misses the majority of the area, uncertainty is rearing its ugly head even more, especially greater Hazleton/Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to Monticello areas. The main players will be a southern stream wave of low pressure now in the Southern Plains, a northern stream upper trough which will attempt to dig in behind the southern wave as it translates to the Midatlantic Coast, and a cold yet very dry air mass from high pressure building across Ontario into Quebec with time. ECMWF has started trending further north with shield of precipitation during the last couple of runs, meanwhile the 00Z NAM - which has had a pretty good track record this season - actually completely misses the area along with a great majority of GFS ensemble members. SREF ensemble output, however, brings a surprisingly broad swath of snow to a large part of our area. SREF often overdoes precipitation especially in terms of coverage, but the range and spread of magnitude is unusually large at this time, with mean values of many inches of snow extending well inland. To summarize, while the lately well-performing NAM completely misses us, the operational GFS-ECMWF-GEM bring outer edge of snow into our Northeast PA zones, and perhaps to southern Catskills. The SREF if nothing else highlights the fact that there is still uncertainty. Meteorologically, the models regardless of precipitation placement have us in a very unfavorable location for jet support - left entrance region Tuesday night into Wednesday - and the low level flow of air in keeps a northern trajectory the whole time, feeding in very dry air from the Canadian high. So there is not a lot of support; it may turn out to be more virga than anything else. For now, we have stepped up snow chances in the Wyoming Valley- Poconos-Catskills areas Tuesday night into Wednesday, with about 1-3 inches snow accumulation south of the Scranton to Monticello line, especially towards Hazleton. Hopefully, upcoming model runs will bring more clarity to this situation. This does have the look of a system in which there could be a very sharp gradient between no snow at all, and a significant accumulation. That line could very well be still south of the our area, where better support will exist. Anyone with travel plans, especially heading south and east, will want to keep an eye on this one. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 355 PM Update... Dry weather (except for perhaps a few flurries) will continue for our entire forecast area Thursday through Friday night as a northerly flow develops over the region, and eventually weak ridging moves in. Cold weather will continue with daytime highs in the upper 20s to 30s and overnight lows in the 10s to lower 20s in most locations. The latest guidance has trended a little slower and slightly further south with the next weather system. Still plenty of time to watch this one. At this time it looks like a low pressure system will track into the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon, spreading precipitation into our area late in the day or evening. As upper level energy phases over the region the low will emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. A strong, very cold Canadian high pressure system will supply plenty of cold air into this system. This will keep temperatures in the 20s at night and 30s during the day over the weekend...and should keep just about all the precip that does fall in the form of snow. Did leave a chance for a rain/snow mix Saturday PM over the lower elevations of NE PA where temps may be in the upper 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure over eastern Canada will bring VFR conditions through this TAF period. Some scattered clouds around 5K feet early this morning will mix out by mid morning with SKC expected through tonight. At KAVP some high clouds will move in overnight. Northerly winds at 5 to 10 knots today becoming light and variable again this evening. Outlook... Tuesday...VFR Tuesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Small chance of snow and restrictions at KAVP on Tuesday night/Wednesday; system probably staying south.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MJM/MDP AVIATION...RRM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.