Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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114
FXUS64 KBMX 181744
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1244 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025

The weather story for the short-term will begin to shift, as the
apex of the ridge builds back in over Florida by tonight. This will
continue to shift the lingering rain chances from Invest 93L to the
west, and allow for warmer temperatures to return in the east. This
trend will continue through the weekend, with the ridge expected to
take over as the dominant feature sometime in the long-term.

Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow will continue to be on the super
muggy side, with lows only dropping into the low and mid-70s.
Afternoon highs on Saturday will be split between the low and mid-
90s, with rain and cloud cover being the deciding factor between
"hot" and "somewhat hotter."

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025

Uncertainty remains in the long-term regarding how the remnants of
Invest 93L will interact with the building ridge. Does it become
completely diffuse? Or does it stay somewhat sandwiched between the
zonal flow over the Midwest? At any rate, that uncertainty
translates into the afternoon rain chances. I have once again
remained status-quo with the current guidance, but if the ridge is
able to firmly establish itself, then rain chances in the long-term
should decrease.

Some uncertainty also remains on upcoming scope of high-
temperatures. This time yesterday, it appears as if we would need
heat headlines by Tuesday, but now that could be as early as Sunday.
In general, it`s safe to say that temperatures are going to rise by
next week, it`s just a difference in 48-72 hours. Until then, it`s
still very safe to say that an extended period of heat headlines
will begin sometime in the near future.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025

Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through this
afternoon, with all terminals carrying PROB30 groups for TSRA.
Once this activity diminishes, then low CIGS should move in, with
most terminals falling into MVFR category by 19/08z.

NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until
further notice due to comms issues.

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Upper-level ridging will begin to build back in by next week, which
could slowly begin to push MinRH values down. Afternoon rain chances
may also end up diminishing during this timeframe as well. While
there are still no fire weather concerns yet, an extended period
such as this could quickly dry things out and reintroduce drought
conditions across the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  91  72  92 /  30  50  20  40
Anniston    73  90  72  90 /  30  40  10  40
Birmingham  74  91  74  92 /  30  40  10  40
Tuscaloosa  74  91  75  93 /  30  40  10  30
Calera      74  90  74  91 /  30  40  10  30
Auburn      73  91  75  92 /  10  30  10  30
Montgomery  74  93  75  94 /  20  30  10  20
Troy        72  92  73  94 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION.../44/