134
FXUS64 KBMX 131800
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

- Heat: Heat indices are expected to range from 100-105 degrees
  this afternoon, creating a moderate to major heat risk. Please
  prioritize heat safety precautions.

- Heavy Rainfall: A wet pattern begins with periods of heavy
  rainfall expected, particularly across the southern half of
  Central Alabama. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast,
  with localized higher amounts possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

Overall, not much change in our thinking with this forecast
update. A stalled cold front can be analyzed just to our north
across much of Tennessee. This feature will slowly retreat back
to the north through the day. Without any surface forcing and
quasi-zonal flow aloft, any convection that develops today will
be diurnally driven. Select forecast soundings suggest ample
instability in place with fairly weak shear. Therefore, any
storms are expected to be relatively short-lived. Brief heavy
rainfall will be likely with any passing shower or storm today as
a plume of 1.8-2" PWATs remains in place across the state.

By Sunday, an upper level shortwave will eject across the Midwest
while sending another frontal boundary our way. This front will
slowly move across the area Sunday into Monday, eventually
stalling across the central or southern part of the CWA. Deep
tropical moisture continues to funnel inland ahead of this
feature, leading to continued moderate to high rain chances,
generally south of the front. Rainfall rates will likely be high
at times through the work week as forecast soundings reveal a
fully saturated profile and a deep warm cloud depth which is
indicative of high rainfall rates. As we head towards the late
stages of the work week, we will need to keep a close eye on a
potential tropical wave across the Western Gulf. Guidance
continues to lift this wave north and east across the Gulf, which
would pull a swath of deep tropical moisture back across much of
the southeast. This moisture combined with another cold front
moving in front the north has the potential to be a heavy
rainfall producer. Current forecast rainfall amounts range from 2-
4" across the area. However, probabilities are trending up for
higher amounts with a few LREF members now hinting at a  medium
chance for amounts over 5". We will continue to watch the latest
trends with this scenario.

95/Castillo

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Another round of
isolated to scattered convection is expected again this
afternoon. However, confidence was only high enough to maintain
PROB30s for TSRA at this time. Otherwise, light winds remain in
place through early Sunday morning. Winds begin to increase out
of the west by late morning with gusts around 20 knots likely.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances increase on Sunday and continue into early next week
as a front slowly moves across the region. Ample moisture in
place will keep MinRH values above 40% through the entire
forecast period. Elevated fire weather concerns are not expected
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  90  69  82 /  20  60  50  40
Anniston    74  89  70  81 /  10  60  50  60
Birmingham  75  91  70  81 /  20  50  60  60
Tuscaloosa  76  92  72  81 /  20  30  60  80
Calera      75  94  71  83 /  10  40  50  80
Auburn      75  92  73  84 /  10  40  30  80
Montgomery  75  93  74  84 /  10  20  40  90
Troy        75  93  74  86 /  10  30  20  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...95/Castillo
AVIATION...95/Castillo