Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 241943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
243 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night): Quiet weather will
extend into tonight and Wednesday with high pressure in control.
Light to moderate southeast winds will continue, and currently
mostly clear skies will pick up some mid and upper clouds from the
west over time. Temperatures will not deviate much from normal.
Rain chances will increase from the west later Wednesday with the
approach of a cold front moving in from the north. The front may
now have a little more punch in the latest model runs, with a mid
level trough slicing southwest from the progressive mid level low
over the central Plains on Wednesday. SPC has upgraded upper
valley weather chances to a marginal risk of severe weather late
Wednesday, with the remainder of the CWA remaining in the general
thunderstorm outlook category. Low level diurnal heating will be
present as the front pushes south. Dew points will be in the 60s.
Forecast soundings in the upper valley show sufficient shear,
lapse rates and cape to support some stronger cells moving out of
Mexico. Deeper storms could be swept to the southeast in the
higher height steering flow. Rain chances have been increased to
50 percent Wednesday night for the upper valley with thunder
spreading across the whole CWA. The main threat late Wednesday
night from any stronger to marginally severe storms moving into
the area from the west and north will be strong gusty winds and
small to marginally severe hail.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday): Front should be through the
region by the beginning of the period as it sweeps quickly
southward. A few showers may be lingering along the river for the
first few hours after sunrise Thursday, so have brought in some
brief rain chances for the morning Thursday. The northerly flow
behind the front will bring a brief day of milder temps to the
region, with highs only around 80 degrees later in the afternoon.
The surface high drops across southeast Texas Friday with a
secondary cold front, bringing another smaller shot of showers,
being held back by the increasing ridging aloft. This ridging
aloft will tend to keep things stable into the weekend, although a
storm drifting across the river from Mexico may be a possibility
on Friday. The ridge axis shift east Sunday, with the next large-
scale trough moving into the central Rockies. Some diffluence
aloft may help strengthen some thunderstorms in Mexico again, and
upper level flow would steer these into the western counties,
mainly Sunday night. With the trough dropping southward along the
Rockies into early next week, Steering flow and upper level
support will continue to provide the small threat for
thunderstorms drifting into the region each evening.


Now through Wednesday night: Broad high pressure will be in
control initially, yielding light to moderate southeast winds and
low to moderate seas. Winds will back to east Wednesday night with
the approach of a cold front, anticipated to fully push through
the area Thursday morning. A few showers may develop over marine
areas Wednesday night.

Thursday through Sunday: Light winds will continue Thursday behind
the front, allowing seas to remain around 2 feet or less. A
secondary north wind push arrives Friday, which will turn winds
back to the north, but will inly rise to 10 to 15 knots and
increase seas no higher than 4 feet. High pressure remain in
control across the northern gulf through the remainder of the
weekend, with seas relaxing back to around 2 feet as winds remain
10 knots or less.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  69  83  67  77 /   0  10  40  20
BROWNSVILLE          69  86  67  80 /   0  10  40  10
HARLINGEN            67  87  65  80 /   0  10  40  10
MCALLEN              70  89  67  81 /   0  10  50  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      69  89  65  80 /   0  20  50  30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  77  69  75 /   0  10  40  20




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