Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 231040 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
540 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...Some low clouds are advecting over MFE at this time,
with BRO and HRL in the clear. Strong winds are expected today
due to an enhanced pressure gradient, with mostly cloudy skies
prevailing. Winds will diminish only to moderate levels with
breezy gusts tonight. Overall, VFR is expected through the next
24 hours.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday): Wind will be the main concern
in this portion of the forecast. A tight surface pressure
gradient will exist within Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley with broad high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
interacting with lower pressure over northern Mexico and the
central United States. Model guidance suggests that wind speeds
will be just shy of Wind Advisory criteria today, but should reach
the Advisory threshold on Saturday. The most likely Wind Advisory
area for the BRO CWFA area on Saturday will be Cameron, Willacy,
and Kenedy Counties. Otherwise, a 500 mb ridge of high pressure
directly overhead will produce dry weather during the forecast
period. with a persistent onshore flow generating well above
normal daytime high and overnight low temperatures.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday): Broad 500mb ridge
over central Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico Saturday night
will move eastward Monday as a mid level trough develops and
moves over the western CONUS through the weekend. Surface high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to interact with
lower pressure across west Texas. Very warm and breezy to windy
conditions will prevail across the region Sunday through the
middle of next week. Rain-free conditions expected through early
next week with a dry and mostly stable air mass in place. A 500mb
low over the western CONUS Monday into Tuesday will drift
southward over the Great Basin region and into the southwest
U.S./northern Mexico Tuesday and move eastward Wednesday. Rain
chances begin to increase by Wednesday as a weak cold front
approaches from the west. The Pacific cold front is expected to
move into deep south Texas on Thursday. Slightly cooler air will
filter into the region Thursday and Thursday night in the wake of
the front.

MARINE (Now through Saturday): Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast
winds around 19 knots gusting to around 23 knots with seas slightly
over 5.5 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 2:40 CDT/7:40 UTC. High
pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico will interact with low
pressure over the Central Plains and thermal low pressure over
Mexico during the period. Strong winds and rough seas are forecast
for the Lower Texas coastal waters and Small Craft Advisories are in
effect for today and tonight. Additional Small Craft Advisories are
likely on Saturday.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night...A strong pressure gradient
will support moderate to strong south to southeast winds across
the lower Texas coastal waters Saturday night through Tuesday
night. Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions will
prevail across the coastal waters through the weekend into early
next week.

FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity values will range between 30 to
40 percent across the western portions of the deep south Texas
each afternoon through most of the period. Low level winds (20ft
winds) will be strongest near the coast Sunday through Wednesday
but may extend farther west at times. Dry fuels across most of the
area...winds and relative humidity will approach red flag warning
conditions across the central portions of the CWA warranting fire
danger statements through the period.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds from noon today to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ150-155-170-


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