Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 161944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
244 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Mid level ridging
extending north from northern Mexico to the Dakotas, combined with
surface high pressure over the west Gulf, will support warm, dry
weather in the short term. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s
with patchy for the ranchlands and brush country tonight, while high
temperatures Thursday will be in the mid 90s east to near the
century mark inland west. Heat index values Thursday will rise to
near or slightly above the century mark across most inland areas for
a few hours in the afternoon, but will only be slightly above high
temperatures since inland dew points will check in from lesser
values in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Winds will be moderate out
of the southeast, although pressure falls over the high plains
Thursday night will tighten the gradient a bit, and will tend to
keep winds moderate to breezy Thursday night. Low clouds will be
more prevalent during the morning hours, but will give way to mostly
sunny skies by late morning.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): H5 ridge just off to the
west will continue to provide hot and dry conditions into the
upcoming weekend. The dry air aloft will continue to cap off the
atmosphere, with only a smattering of CU expected each afternoon.
Will be flirting with record highs through the rest of the week,
but most areas will remain just under those values, but will still
be reaching the middle to upper 90s. The ridge axis shift east
Sunday as wave sweeps in from northern Mexico. Dry air still
persists, but enough moisture and instability may bring an
elevated shower or two, but being in the midst of a significant
dry spell, this wave may not be strong enough to budge the dry air


Now through Thursday night: Light to moderate southeast to south
winds and low to moderate seas will continue into Thursday as high
pressure remains dominant over the northwest Gulf. The gradient
will tighten a bit Thursday due to pressure falls over the High
Plains, resulting in a slight increase in winds and seas. Winds
will become moderate to fresh southeast and seas will become
moderate Thursday night.

Winds and seas are forecast to increase through the weekend as low
pressure develops in SW Kansas. The high to the east is not
strong, so the gradient will not tighten considerably during the
extended. Winds will probably rise into the 15 to 20 knot range,
which would necessitate caution for mariners, mainly during the
daytime hours.


BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  73  93  75  90 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          73  95  75  93 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            70  98  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              72  99  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      71 102  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   76  84  77  84 /   0   0   0   0




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