Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 221855 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
155 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Daytime heating is helping fire off some patchy
shower and t-storm activity mainly to the south of the Rio
Grande with a general NW movement. This should steer most of the
afternoon conv away from the RGV airports. So expect generally
fair wx cu to prevail over the region heading into the evening
hours with the late evening conv dying out with the loss of the
afternoon heating. Some lower MVFR ceilings may reform
periodically later tonight as the nocturnal low level inversion
reforms. Daytime heating tomorrow morning will then mix out the
lower levels of the atms over the RGV allowing for VFR conditions
to prevail once again.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 606 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Not much has changed since the last discussion, except
a few lower to mid level clouds are moving into Deep South Texas.
Periodic MVFR ceilings will be possible the next several hours with
some patchy fog also possible. The best chance of fog will be near
MFE and surrounding areas with moist soils due to recent rainfall,
however, not anticipating anything dense. During the day Tuesday,
expect dry conditions with gusty ESE winds in the afternoon.
Possible seabreeze showers or thunderstorms may develop, but not
expecting any impacts to the local aerodromes at the moment.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018/
SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): Conditions are quiet and dry
tonight with just a few low-level clouds developing early this
morning. 500 mb low has developed over the Middle Texas Coast with
northwest flow moving over Deep South Texas. Plenty of moisture
remains across the area with 70 to 80% RH from the sfc to 700 mb.
Being on the subsident side of the low, not expecting much in the
way of rainfall today, however isolated convection will be
possible mainly along the coast and over the marine areas. Light
ESE winds and daytime heating may allow some sea breeze
enhancement. Other than that, hot temperatures and humid
conditions will prevail. Temperatures were nudged down a degree or
two this afternoon with 1000-500 mb thicknesses being similar to
yesterday with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday, models keep the weak troughing/low over
the northern Gulf coast with hot and mostly dry conditions for our
area. A few seabreeze showers will be possible again with
temperatures slightly warmer, otherwise, haven`t made many changes
from the previous forecast.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...Global models are in
fairly good agreement with a 500mb low across the northern Gulf of
Mexico Wed night into Thursday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF prog a
broad 500mb trough developing across the Gulf of Mexico Thursday
into Friday. At the surface...the GFS progs a broad area of low
pressure to develop across the southern Gulf of Mexico and the
Yucatan Peninsula Thursday and possibly move into the southeast
Gulf of Mexico Saturday. The ECMWF progs the low across the
Yucatan Thursday moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico Friday
towards the northern Gulf coast Saturday. Regardless of what
develops across the Gulf of Mexico...tropical or otherwise (see
latest special tropical weather outlook from NHC)...south Texas
and the western Gulf of Mexico should be on the subsident side of
the upper feature as well as any surface feature and this will
provide very warm to hot temperatures and very little if any rain
chances across deep south TX through the rest of the week into
the weekend.

MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Moderate southeast winds will
continue across the marine areas today with seas gradually subsiding
to 2 to 4 feet through the period. A mid-level disturbance over the
Middle Texas Coast may provide an opportunity for some isolated
showers and storms Tuesday into Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Light to moderate east to
southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wed night
into Thursday with surface high pressure across east Texas and a
weak area of low pressure across the southern Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient is expected to weaken across the lower Texas
coast Friday with a broad area of low pressure across the southern
Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula. Light and variable winds should
prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday as
the broad area of low pressure across the Yucatan moves into the
southeast Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term...55
Graphicast/Upper Air...56


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