Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 150254 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
954 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...A very dry airmass in place over the RGV will maintain
VFR conditions for the Valley airports throughout the upcoming 24
hours. The low level flow will return back from the E-SE tomorrow
afternoon allowing dewpoints to start increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

&&

.MARINE...The marine conditions at Buoy020 remains above SCA
levels this evening but are on the decrease while the surface
winds over the Laguna Madre have dropped below Advisory levels.
Have updated the CWF to lower the SCA for the Bay waters and will
leave the Advisory in place for the Gulf through Midnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH values across the area have starting rebounding
as the temp/dewpoint spread narrows with the falling temps. Also
the low level winds over Deep South TX are steadily decreasing
this evening. So have allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire at 7
pm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): The cold front is well
east of the area early this afternoon. Surface high pressure
continues to build into the region in the wake of the cold front.
Current satellite imagery and surface observations indicates clear
skies across deep south Texas as a much drier airmass continues
to filter into the area. The mid level trough axis over central
Texas will swing overhead and east tonight. Very dry west to
northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will support
relatively quiet weather through the period. Low temperatures
will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s under clear skies
tonight, with light winds. Surface high pressure will settle
across the northwest Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s, except for the mid to
upper 70s along the immediate coast, with abundant sunshine. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the 50s.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): 500mb ridge across the
central United States Monday will move eastward Tuesday as a 500mb
trough moves into the northwest United States. At the
surface...high pressure across south Texas will move eastward as
low pressure develops on the lee side of the Rockies. Breezy to
windy conditions will develop across the Rio Grande valley Monday
and continue on Tuesday. A weak cold front is progged to move into
central TX Wed morning and the pressure gradient should weaken
across the lower TX coast as a result. Temperatures will continue
to warm through the middle of next week before the front moves
across south TX and stalls across the coastal bend Thursday.
Moisture should increase across the Rio Grande valley Wednesday
into Thursday and easterly flow across the area will allow
temperatures to briefly be slightly cooler on Thursday.
Very warm to hot temperatures will prevail through the rest of the
period with a possible heat spike on Saturday as a frontal system
across the south-central U.S. allows south to southwest winds to
develop across the CWA. In addition...will mention a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with the increase in
moisture across the area with the frontal boundary across the
coastal bend. Deeper moisture is progged to lift northward Friday
and remain to the northeast of the area on Saturday as a
prefrontal trough moves through the area but will mention isolated
showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the forecast
period.

MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): Buoy 42020 reported north-
northwest winds around 27 knots gusting to around 33 knots with
seas slightly under 8.9 feet with a period of 7 seconds at 130 PM
CST/1830 UTC. Observation platforms over the Gulf waters continue
to indicate some gale force gusts occurring over the offshore Gulf
waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf waters 20
to 60 NM out through at least 4 pm this afternoon. Adverse marine
conditions will continue through this evening with moderate to
strong north winds and high seas. Conditions will settle down to
below criteria on the Laguna this evening, but advisory conditions
will continue on the Gulf through tonight while seas remain high.
Marine conditions will improve Sunday and Sunday night as high
pressure spreads over the region.

Monday through Thursday...Moderate southeast winds will prevail
across the coastal waters Monday with surface high pressure across
the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will
increase across the lower Texas coast Mon night as surface low
pressure develops across northwest TX. Moderate to strong
southeast winds will develop across the western Gulf Mon night.
SCEC to near SCA conditions will prevail across the coastal waters
Mon night as a result. Small craft advisories will likely be
needed for all of the coastal waters Tuesday and offshore waters
Tues night as the pressure gradient continues to tighten across
the lower TX coast. Strong south to southeast winds Tuesday should
diminish on Wednesday as a weak cold front moves into south TX Wed
afternoon. Light to moderate east to southeast winds Wednesday
should back to the east on Thursday as the front stalls across the
northern Gulf coast.

FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the inland
counties through 7 pm this evening due to abundant dry air and
moderate to strong 20 ft north winds. Latest surface observations
continue to indicate relative humidity values in the teens along
and west of I69C. Should drier air push strongly to the coast,
critical fire weather conditions may be reached in the coastal
counties as well, and the red flag warning may be expanded. A fire
danger statement remains in effect for the coastal counties
through early this evening.

Monday...Relative humidity values will be low Monday
afternoon...especially across the western portions of the Rio
Grande valley...as 20ft winds increase to 15 knots across the
CWA. May need to issue a fire weather watch for most of deep
south Texas Monday as erratic wildfire behavior will increase
across the area Mon afternoon.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ150-155-
     170-175.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...60
Long Term/Upper Air...64



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