740
FXUS64 KBRO 070335
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1035 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid-level high pressure is expected to persist over the Desert
Southwest throughout the short term/Tuesday night, while a mid-level
low pressure regresses across the Gulf, nearing the Lower Texas
coast by Tuesday morning as an inverted trough, leading to chances
of convection along daytime seabreeze boundaries. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure over the Gulf continues to drive southeasterly winds
across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with gusts up to
20-25 mph expected through Tuesday. Near to slightly below average
PWAT values persist through Monday, with a low (15-25%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. As the trough nears
the Gulf coast on Tuesday, PoP`s increase to a low to medium
(20-30%) chance, spreading inland throughout the morning and
afternoon hours, likely with greater geographical coverage in
convection than Monday. On both days, PoP`s are highest near, and
east of, US-281. Heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusts up to
40 mph are possible within the strongest of storms. Additionally,
chances drop off overnight both nights. The mid-level trough
moves inland overnight Tuesday.

Slightly below average temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday
afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s, mid 80`s along the
coast and overnight temperatures falling to the 70s inland to around
80 degrees near the coast. Afternoon heat indices are likely to
range mostly between 100-105 degrees, while a few areas may reach as
high as 108 degrees for a few hours in the afternoon. This leads to
a moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk across the beaches and more
populated regions of the RGV, while the rest of deep south Texas
experiences a minor (level 1 of 4) heat risk.

The risk of rip currents remains low through the day Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Due to the nearby trough and elevated PWAT values (possibly as high
as 1.85 in.), mostly cloudy skies linger into Wednesday, keeping
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Yet, a mid-level high
expanding over the Gulf is likely to increase subsidence aloft
slightly, thus limiting Wednesday afternoon PoP`s to a low
(15-25%) chance or less. Thursday into Friday, mid-level ridging
and subsidence aloft increase as PWAT`s fall below average,
resulting in mostly dry conditions, with PoP`s less than 10%,
though an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two can not be
completely ruled out. This will allow for more sunshine and
afternoon highs to rise back to normal levels, with mid to upper
90s inland (to as high as 100 degrees in Zapata County) along with
mid 80s at the beaches. Afternoon heat indices increase from
generally 100-105 degrees on Wednesday to 104-109 degrees for the
remainder of the period, with the area of moderate heat risk
expanding, more notably on Friday, from SPI and the more populous
areas of the RGV to the majority of the CWA over the weekend and
early next week. Overnight lows fall to the 70s inland to near 80
degrees at the coast, possibly rising a degree or two throughout
the later part of the week and into the weekend.

Low chances (15-20%) of afternoon seabreeze showers and
thunderstorms may return Saturday through next Monday as the mid-
level ridge over the Desert Southwest shifts westward toward the
West Coast, but confidence is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR conditions continue through the remainder of this evening with
southeasterly winds, currently around 13-16 knots, gusting as high
as 22 knots) lightening beyond sunset and into the remainder of
tonight. VFR conditions are expected to continue overnight at all
terminals and into Monday morning, with the possibility of MVFR
ceilings, noted in the TEMPO`s at KBRO and KMFE, with the greater
chances at KMFE. Otherwise, southeasterly winds pick up
throughout Monday morning to similar speeds by the afternoon and
early evening hours, with VFR conditions prevailing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Now through next Monday...Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and
slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas are expected to continue through
the period. Brief Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions
are possible across the Laguna Madre most afternoons, particularly
towards the later part of this week, when SCEC headlines may be
possible, due to a slight tightening of the pressure gradient.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue into Wednesday,
before mostly dry conditions return into the later part of the
week and over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  91  79  92 /   0  10  10  20
HARLINGEN               75  93  76  93 /   0  20  10  20
MCALLEN                 78  95  78  95 /   0  20   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         76  94  76  94 /   0  10   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  86  80  87 /   0  10  20  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  77  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65-Irish
LONG TERM....65-Irish
AVIATION...65-Irish