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000
FXUS61 KBUF 150234
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1034 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather will continue this afternoon through tonight. Above
average temperatures will continue today through the weekend, along
with increasing humidity and shower chances. Passage of a cold front
on Monday will mark a reprieve in temperature and thus expect below
normal temperatures for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in control over our area this evening with
the lowest PWATs in the entire region centered right over the
Niagara Frontier. While this allowed for runaway temperature
increases earlier this afternoon with the Buffalo area, upper
Genesee Valley, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario vaulting
well into the upper 80s as virtually all insolation went into
temperature increases rather than latent heating, temperatures
hav steadily sagged into the 60s across most of the area in the
decidedly dry air mass. More moist air is poised just to the
west over lower Michigan and far southwestern Ontario,
Pennsylvania, and even the Hudson Valley. Our dry air oasis will
gradually be encroached upon by Saturday from the perimeters,
however in the interim, this oasis of dry air will scour out any
remaining cumulus over the NY/PA border region and east of Lake
Ontario fairly expeditiously this evening.

To start off the weekend, an area of surface low pressure will
deepen and track across Kentucky and West Virginia on Saturday.
Meanwhile, high pressure will begin to drift northeast into the
Canadian Maritimes, though the high will continue to span southwest
into the eastern Great Lakes for much of the day on Saturday. As a
result, the region will become under a southerly flow regime which
will aid moisture advection at 850 mb. Daytime heating along with an
influx in moisture may produce a few showers and thunderstorms
across the western portions of the state Saturday afternoon.
However, subsidence from the high pressure will dominate across the
eastern portions of the state, thus keeping the North Country dry
throughout the day on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A pool of higher precipitable water currently resides over the Mid
Atlantic.  With southerly flow in place during Saturday, this
moisture source should have moved north into WNY with a continued
chance of showers and thunderstorms lasting into the evening, while
CNY remains dry being closer to a departing upper level ridge to
the NE along with its associated surface high pressure.

This of course means that an upper level trough and associated
surface pressure is upstream and approaching the region.  By Sunday,
weak forcing will be overhead.  This will only increase the
probability of precipitation aided by midsummer daytime heating
together with local mesoscale/lake boundaries.

As the above noted trough moves SE, a surface cold front should move
across the region with a continued threat for convection Sunday
Night and again on Monday.

Both instability and shear are unimpressive throughout the weekend
and into early next week, so severe concerns are low.  However, any
slow moving or training storms may result in locally heavy rain.
Temperatures should be near normal with a slow decrease in both
daytime highs and nighttime lows into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level trough axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday
in the wake of a cold front moving off the east coast. This will
bring a cooler airmass into the eastern Great Lakes, with highs in
the 70s on Tuesday. A few showers may linger east of Lake Ontario in
upslope areas, otherwise the rest of the area will be mainly dry.

Weak high pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday night with dry weather.
The cool/dry airmass will allow lows to drop into the 50s each
night, with upper 40s possible in the cooler Southern Tier valleys
and North Country. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 70s to
around 80 at lower elevations, and mid 70s across higher terrain.

Another mid level trough will pass to the north of the region
Thursday, with the associated trailing cold front drifting southeast
into the eastern Great Lakes. The bulk of the stronger large scale
forcing will be found well north of the Canadian border, with a
weak, moisture starved boundary crossing our region. With this in
mind, kept the Thursday period mainly dry, with high pressure
allowing dry weather to continue into Friday. Temperatures will
begin to warm again later next week, with highs in the lower
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist through tonight as high pressure
dominates overhead. Winds will subside along the Niagara
Frontier tonight becoming light by morning. Clear skies will
remain until cumulus develop on Saturday afternoon with widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms too far apart to bother
mentioning generally from KROC westward.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will drift to the northeast tonight. Meanwhile, low
pressure will move through the Ohio Valley, leading to general
northeast flow conditions through the near term. This is
allowing for near small craft conditions on the nearshore waters
of Lake Erie, however with a loss of daytime heating and
attendant kinetic energy in the boundary layer, the winds should
subside a bit below the 17 kt threshold this evening.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ/Fries
SHORT TERM...HSK/Zaff
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...EAJ/Fries
MARINE...EAJ/Fries