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000
FXUS61 KBUF 240603
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
203 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The passage of a cold front will introduce a cooler and notably
drier airmass into our region. This will be accompanied by mainly
fair dry weather on Friday...as high pressure will pass over the
Lower Great Lakes. Unfortunately, conditions will then deteriorate
Friday night and Saturday as a pair of frontal systems will push
through the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
In the wake of a cold front...cooler and notably drier air is in the
process of moving into western and north central New York. This will
allow for a more comfortable night...as temperatures should drop to
within a few degrees of 50.

High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will then gradually build
across our forecast area on Friday. While this will guarantee fair
dry weather for the bulk of the region...a residual cyclonic flow
aloft could still support some morning cloud cover as well as a
stray shower or two east of Lake Ontario. It will be a cooler day
with the mercury topping out in the mid 60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface based ridging extending southeast from James Bay will
consolidate over NY/PA and maintain firm control across the lower
lakes Friday night. Look for quiet and dry weather across the region
with generally clear skies until late as an approaching warm front
introduces some mid and high level clouds. Lows by daybreak will
range from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area.

Saturday, the surface high just to our southeast will quickly exit
the area and off the NJ coast during the early morning hours.
Meanwhile, weak surface low pressure over Ontario Canada will track
east while lifting its warm front into Western NY. Isentropic lift,
supported by a 30 knot LLJ, and copious amounts of moisture being
transported northeast into the region (PW values ramping up to near
1.5 inches) will likely lead to increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday morning. As the warm front continues to lift
northeast across the area into the North Country, behind the front
there maybe a brief lull in storm activity across Western NY before
the cold front arrives later in the day/evening. Again, another
round of storms will be possible with the cold front but with the
front arriving so late in the day, instability won`t be maximized
and waning to an extent. So the potential for widespread severe
weather at this point will be limited due to the timing of the cold
front.

Otherwise, with temperatures climbing into the 70s and a moisture
laden atmosphere it will likely be a humid day across the region.

Saturday night, low pressure over NE. Ontario Canada will track
further NNE into Quebec with its trailing cold front slowly pushing
south and southeast into PA where it will stall overnight.
Meanwhile, a weak wave is forecast to track out of the Midwest along
this stalled frontal boundary to our south on Sunday. Although,
various model guidance packages differ on the positioning of the
stalled front and the strength of the wave which is forecast to pass
to our south. For now, have kept chance POPs in the forecast to
account for the uncertainty.

Sunday night, sprawling surface ridging over Ontario Canada will
track east with the axis of the ridge positioned over James Bay and
bisecting Western NY. This feature will introduce quiet and dry
weather across the forecast area into Monday. Any residual showers
or thunderstorm behind the departing wave will quickly end Sunday
evening with mainly clear skies developing overnight. Lows will fall
back mainly into the 50s under mainly clear skies by daybreak
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Increased ridging will begin on Monday over the eastern third of the
country. This will provide mostly rainfree conditions for Monday. As
the ridge strengthens over the southeast U.S., a similar scenario to
this weeks weather will take shape. The ridge over the southeast
U.S. will cause waves of low pressure to trek northeast out of
western half of the country where a trough will be in place. Waves
of low pressure will increase the chance for showers and
thunderstorms from Tuesday through Thursday across western and north
central NY.

Ahead of these areas of low pressure warming temperatures on Tuesday
and Wednesday will bring highs across the area to the upper 70s to
mid 80s. A passing cold front late Wednesday/early Thursday will
bring slightly below normal temperates to the area with highs in the
mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 06Z TAF cycle will start off with VFR conditions across the
region. A closed low will settle across Maine later tonight
which will increase moisture and result in lower cigs which will
settle across Lake Ontario late tonight. There will be areas
with MVFR flight conditions between 9-16Z.

Cloud bases will lift late Friday morning, and eventually
scatter out Friday afternoon and evening. The associated area
of high pressure will assure fair dry weather for Friday and
Friday evening...although a stray shower cannot be ruled out for
sites east of the Tug Hill.

Outlook...
Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms.
Some storms could again produce gusty winds.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty winds in the wake of a cold front will support small craft
advisory conditions overnight...particularly on the eastern half of
Lake Ontario.

Winds will then subside during the day Friday as high pressure will
push east from the Upper Great Lakes. Generally light winds and
negligible waves can then be anticipated Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A cold front has just moved across the area and this caused
westerly winds to increase which will produce higher waves on
Lake Ontario. These combining with very high lake levels to
bring lakeshore flooding to the shorelines of Wayne...Northern
Cayuga...and Oswego Counties. Winds and flooding concerns will
then diminish on Friday as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for
     NYZ004>006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Apffel/RSH
MARINE...RSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JJR/Apffel