Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000 FXUS61 KCAR 261528 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1128 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will track west of our area today. The low will continue north into Eastern Canada tonight as high pressure returns. Another low will approach on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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11:30 AM Update...Raised temps over the north where some brightening had occurred. Raised dew points over much of the east, and adjusted pops to reflect new area of heavy rain now moving north across the area. Expect another half inch of rain across much of this area as this surge moves north through the midday hours. Previous Discussion... Low pressure will move across the western portion of the State during the day today. The rain will continue this morning the become lighter across the south by this afternoon. Heaviest rain this afternoon will be mostly across the northwestern areas. The low pressure system will move to the north of the region this evening and as it does so the rain is expected to end in all areas by later this evening. Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs to initialize the pops and QPF. High pressure is expected to build to the south of New England late tonight and this may bring partial clearing to southern areas lat tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CWA wl get a brief reprieve fm s/wvs on Fri as sw flow aloft and vry brief sfc ridge axis crests ovr the area in the aftn. Hwvr another wv wl ride north fm the mid-Atlantic states with showers mvg back into the region late in the aftn as upglide increases. High clds wl be spilling into the area shortly aft daybreak but with srly flow drawing in warmer air expect that highs wl top out in the 60s acrs the state with the exception of the coast as onshore flow keeps temps in the 50s. Showers expected Fri night and into Sat mrng. Rainfall totals expected to be much lighter than what is occurring this mrng with total rainfall amnts ranging fm 1/2 inch acrs Downeast to around 1/3 inch ovr the north. Unfortunately this wl lkly exacerbate ongoing flooding issues, thus wl keep flood watch going acrs the north as significant snowmelt combined with addn`l rainfall wl only prime the pump, so to speak. Temps thru the end of the pd wl continue to run abv normal with mins in the 40s Sat mrng and highs once again climbing twd 60F on Sat. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The long term begins with upr lvl low hanging back to the west bfr drifting out of the area Mon night. This keeps the chc for scattered showers, and relatively cool temps, in the fcst into the early half of the week. As the low drifts into the Atlantic Mon evng an upr lvl ridge wl begin building into the east. This wl feature temps well abv normal twd the end of the week. Temps aloft expected to be 1-2 SD abv normal under 570dm ridge. Main storm track wl be displaced to our north thru at least the middle half of the week. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect IFR conditions today and tonight in the north. In KBGR and KBHB expect IFR/MVFR conditions today and VFR conditions late tonight. SHORT TERM: VFR expected on Fri and Fri evening, diminishing to MVFR late Fri night and possibly IFR in low cigs. VFR on Sat then diminishing again Sat night as off and on restrictions continue into early next week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used a 50/50 blend of the Nam and Gfs for sustained winds. Currently sea surface temperature is around 40 F while air temperature is in mid 40s and this appears to be preventing strongest winds from getting down to the surface. For Waves: Currently a long fetch is developing across the Gulf of Maine and extending well to the southeast into the Atlantic. The fetch will be broken up by the wind shift later today. Wind wave heights will build to 10-12 feet/9-10 seconds today. The wind wave will transition to a southeasterly swell tonight but is not expected to subside until Friday due to the length of the fetch. Total Water Level: Will keep Base Tide Anomaly at +0.30 today then gradually increase to 0.80 feet Thursday. Will make local adjustment for fresh water runoff at high tides in Bangor. SHORT TERM: Seas will remain aoa 5ft in southerly swell ahead of next system moving north from the mid-Atlantic on Fri. Seas remain above SCA levels thru the weekend with wind gusts only a factor Sat morning. && .HYDROLOGY... A flood watch has been issued for Downeast into this afternoon and across the north from this morning through Saturday. The watch for Downeast is mainly for responses of small streams and rivers to the heavy rainfall which may approach 2 inches in some areas. The watch across the north is for the larger rivers response to combined snow melt and rainfall. The rivers are projected to steadily rise into early this weekend and may approach flood stage by Saturday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MEZ001>006-010-011- 031. Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ015>017-029- 030-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052.
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