Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 131942
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A low amplitude upper level ridge continues to move across TX this
afternoon. A strong high pressure cell over the Gulf is generating
breezy southeasterly winds across South Central Texas. Low level
moisture has increased over the last 24 hours with dewpoints around
ten degrees higher today. The upper ridge will continue its slow
trek to the east during this period. The low level flow will
continue from the southeast. This will keep the warm, moist airmass
in place over our CWA. Tonight will be partly to mostly cloudy and
warm. Low temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than this
morning. The low level flow will remain from the southeast Sunday
and Sunday night. The pressure gradient will loosen a bit Sunday and
winds will be a little lighter. High temperatures Sunday will be a
few degrees warmer than today and lows Monday will see a similar
rise. The weather will remain dry with skies becoming mostly cloudy
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The upper ridge over TX amplifies slightly as the axis shifts east to
East TX Monday, and the upstream Srn Rockies upper low will tighten
the low level pressure gradients further over NW TX. The result
should be a deeper marine moisture layer and better RH values over
western counties for Monday afternoon. Monday night, the bottom
portion of a conveyor belt of lift will glide over the higher
elevation counties in the overnight hours and into the Austin
metro/Coastal Prairies north of I-10 in the morning hours Tuesday.
While there is a potential for a large severe weather outbreak just
north of our counties, a Marginal risk for some isolated severe cells
is probably the most significant this pattern will do for us. The
projection for much needed spring rains is summed up by the
uninspiring few hundredths of an inch of forecast QPF through this
period.

A Pacific front entering the area Tuesday will bring a very dry air
mass into areas west of the I-35 corridor Tuesday afternoon. As the
upper low ejects NE into the plains states, the base of the trough
lifts mainly north of the EWX CWA, so this could signal much lighter
winds in the wake of the front than say the SJT & FWD CWA. With this
environment and an expectation of mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon, there could be some very warm air building over the Rio
Grande, and an approach of temps to near triple digits can`t be ruled
out. South winds return for Wednesday, but minimal low to mid level
moisture could lead to another upper 90s day for western counties.
Moisture and morning cloudiness should make for more narrow diurnal
temperature ranges for the eastern half of the CWA for this period.

A weak perturbation in the southern stream westerlies could
destabilize the weather over the area for Thursday through Friday,
and a northerly pattern in the polar jet sends a cold front our way
by early Friday. This sounds promising for increasing rain chances
and moderating daytime temps, but this is typically a low confidence
pattern for mid-April, especially considering the reinforcing drought
impacts on these weak types of upper patterns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

High ceilings will dominate through this afternoon. Winds will be
from the south with gusts up to 25 kts through the afternoon and
early evening. MVFR ceilings will develop in the Austin and San
Antonio areas overnight. There also a low chance for MVFR ceilings at
DRT early morning Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur this afternoon
across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.
Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will coincide
with minimum RH values around 25% in a region of Dry to Extremely
Dry forecast fuel dryness per TICC. A Fire Danger Statement is in
effect through 9 PM. Our next focus for concern will be west of the
I-35 corridor in the wake of the Tuesday Pacific front. Lowest RH
will be very dry and just a moderate wind of 10 to 20 mph might be
sufficient to warrant a Red Flag Warning for the western counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  84  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  84  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  85  65  85 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            62  84  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  84  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             61  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        62  84  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   64  82  67  82 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  86  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           64  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...18
Aviation...05


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