Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 041117
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
617 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows high clouds in association
with the remnants of previous Hurricane Orlene continues to stream in
from the southwest across much of the area, but drier air within the
mid to upper levels of the atmosphere is also moving into the region
from the northwest where skies have started to clear across some of
our most northern counties. Elected to lower overnight lows for some
of the lowest valleys in the Hill Country with the skies clearing.
The high clouds will continue to reduce in areal coverage and thin
out across South-Central Texas as we go through the day with mainly
clear skies trending across the region by tonight. More thin high
cirrus could then arrive Wednesday from out of the west with upper
level troughing digging into the Southwestern CONUS and northern
Mexico. Otherwise, the forecast will stay persistent where no rain is
expected while mornings start off cool to seasonable and afternoons
trend warm with lower humidity. Winds will trend light and variable
at night while east-southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots trend in
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

A longwave trough is forecast to deepen through the northern Plains
and Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. At the same time an upper level
low is forecast to cut off across Baja California and remain there
through Saturday before opening into a trough Sunday and Monday.
Weak ridging aloft is forecast to be in place across South Central
Texas Wednesday and Thursday, then flatten with upper level flow
becoming more southwesterly. In the low levels, a weak cold front is
forecast to remain just north of the area Thursday and Friday. A
secondary front may push into the area Saturday, although low
confidence exists on how far south and west the front makes it. The
better moisture is forecast to remain south and west of the CWA
Thursday through Saturday, however Friday may end up being mostly
cloudy with high clouds streaming into the region. Most GFS, ECMWF,
and Canadian ensemble members remain dry over South Central Texas
Thursday through Saturday. An increasing southerly flow looks to
establish itself Sunday into Monday, with better moisture and low
chances for showers working into the western CWA. High temperatures
in the 80s to low 90s and low temperatures in the 50s and 60s will
prevail through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Latest infrared satellite imagery continues to show mid to high
clouds streaming from out of the southwest across South-Central
Texas except portions of the Hill Country and Southern Edwards
Plateau where skies have begun to already clear out. Clouds are
expected to gradually thin and clear out elsewhere today into
tonight. Winds will trend light and variable at night and east-
southeasterly around 5 to 10 knots from the afternoon through
the early evening hours. VFR flight conditions continue for the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  60  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  56  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     90  59  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            88  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  62  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  56  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  58  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  59  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       89  62  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  63  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Brady


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