064
FXUS64 KEWX 240756
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Key Message:

- Hot and humid with elevated heat index values

High clouds are spreading from west to east over most locations from
previous convective activity over the Pecos area early this morning.
Also, the Microphysics satellite imagery shows low clouds moving
inland from the Gulf and affecting portions of the coastal plains.
This trend of low clouds is expected to continue the rest of the
overnight into mid Saturday morning. Dew point temperatures are
coming in from the upper 60s to upper 70s based on the 2 AM CDT
surface observations. With these levels of moisture around, can`t
rule out patchy fog across the coastal plains by day break. One
limitation for fog development is the moderate breeze from the
southeast. Clouds begin to break for scattered cloud coverage by
noon and even less clouds are expected for the afternoon for mostly
sunny skies.

A low level jet sets up across the local area today with wind mixing
down to the surface for a breezy and gusty period which could last
through this evening. Today`s highs are forecast to range from the
mid to upper 90s across most locations with 100 to 107 along the Rio
Grande. Heat index values are expected to range from 100 to 107 over
parts of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains. Can`t
rule a few spots getting into the 108-109 to the south and southwest
of Bexar county. Similar situation goes for the Rio Grande with
highest heat index values getting into the 108 to 110.

Overall, dry and humid weather conditions with a nice breeze out of
the southeast. However, we do have a low chance for showers and
storms across Val Verde county mid to late afternoon and early
evening as storms develop over northeast Mexico ahead of the dryline
and then push to the east with the help of an upper level
disturbance moving across west-central Texas.

As the night progresses, increased moisture arrives from the Gulf
for mostly cloudy skies across most of South Central Texas.
Overnight lows in the 70s. After a cloudy start of the day on Sunday
morning, clouds break for partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
Sunday`s highs range from the mid to upper 90s over most places and
100 to 105 along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are expected during
the daytime but rain is on its way for the evening. More on this
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Key Messages:

- Daily/nightly chances (20-50%) of showers and storms
- A few strong to severe storms and isolated pockets of heavy
  rainfall possible during this time
- Temperatures trending slightly cooler and closer to seasonal
  normals Tuesday through Friday

The flow aloft becomes southwesterly Sunday into Monday ahead of a
dampening shortwave. An embedded disturbance in this flow will allow
for a low chance (20-30%) of showers and storms Sunday evening
across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau, working eastward
overnight and into Monday morning through the northern Hill Country
and into Central Texas. A few storms could become severe, with large
hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats. In addition,
pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible.

Beyond Monday morning timing of disturbances in the southwest to
west flow aloft and positioning of a weak frontal boundary becomes
complicated, making the forecast next week challenging. The daily
and nightly chances of showers and storms will also be likely
contingent on the areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms from
the previous day/night, as the atmosphere at times could become
overworked and would need time to recover. Convective chances will
also likely be influenced by mesoscale features such as outflow
boundaries, which are impossible to forecast this far out. All that
to say there are currently daily/nightly shower and storm chances of
20-50%, and these chances will be refined as each day gets closer. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible, along with pockets of
heavy rainfall. While most of this will be welcome rainfall across
the drought stricken region, some pockets of higher rainfall rates
could lead to some minor flooding issues.

Sunday and Monday are forecast to be the warmest day of the week
with highs in the mid to upper 90s for many while locations near the
Rio Grande reach and/or exceed 100 degrees. Temperatures are
forecast to trend slightly cooler and closer to seasonal normals
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR cigs are expected for another hour or so before MVFR cigs begin
to prevail through the overnight continuing to about 15z for the I-35
sites. There is a period from 12z to 16z that MVFR are possible for
KDRT. VFR conditions return late morning into the afternoon and
evening for all area terminals. Breezy and gusty winds from the
southeast are going to dominate the area airports for most of the
forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  77  98  77 /   0   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76  98  77 /   0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  76  97  77 /   0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            96  74  95  75 /   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 102  79 /  10  10   0  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  75  96  75 /   0   0  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             99  74  98  76 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  76  97  76 /   0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  76  96  76 /   0   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  77  97  78 /   0   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport          100  78  99  79 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17