461
FXUS64 KFWD 131656
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1156 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This afternoon through Tuesday night/

Clouds lingered across much of the region this morning ahead of a
weak cold front approaching from the west. Clouds will scatter
and dissipate slowly from west to east through the afternoon once
drier air moves in behind the front.

As far as rain and storm chances go, there will really be two
things to watch this afternoon and tonight. The first is storms
forming along a stalled boundary roughly between Del Rio and
Austin. These storms are being aided by lift from a shortwave
rotating around the base of the main trough currently centered
across the Central Plains. Storms will track northeast with the
mid-level flow, reaching Central Texas this afternoon. Some of
these storms could reach the far southern counties of the CWA
after 2 PM. Heavy rain and hail could accompany some of these
storms so we will leave the Flood Watch in effect across our
southeast zones until 7 PM.

The potential for storms along the front is the second thing we
are monitoring. Right now it appears the chances for storms to
develop along the front across the western half of the region
through mid afternoon are low since veering winds just ahead of
the boundary will limit low level convergence. The lack of
substantial convergence will result in insufficient lift to
overcome a cap of warm air aloft. Therefore, storms will likely
not develop and this solution is supported by most of the CAMs. If
storms do develop along the front it will likely occur along and
east of I-35 late this afternoon and early this evening when a
final piece of shortwave energy translates across the region. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible, especially across
Central Texas with hail being the primary hazard.

Drier and subsident air will move in tonight through Tuesday
night, bringing an end to all precipitation and clearing out most
remaining clouds. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will range from
the upper 50s to the middle 60s. Highs Tuesday will warm back up
into the lower and middle 80s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 352 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/
/Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

Our brief period of quiet weather will continue Wednesday, with a
warm afternoon in store for North and Central Texas. Temperatures
will mostly peak in the mid to upper 80s, but a few spots may
eclipse the 90 degree mark. A deepening shortwave trough will
swing into West Texas during the afternoon, which should aid in
the development of deep convection ahead of a dryline well to our
west. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity as they
move east, they likely won`t reach our western border until late
evening or into the overnight hours Wednesday night. We`ll at
least have a low potential for severe weather with this activity,
but this will largely depend on how these storms evolve as they
approach the area.

The shortwave will continue moving east on Thursday as a surface
low deepens across far West Texas. By midday, the dryline will
near our western border with a cold front draped across the Texas
Panhandle. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers
and storms throughout the day. Chances for showers and storms
will continue into Thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges
out of the Four Corners Region into the Southern Plains. Lift
will likely be maximized during this time period as the cold front
continues to move south and east towards the region. Some severe
threat could materialize Thursday and/or Thursday night. However,
there is unusually high uncertainty in how our upper level
pattern will evolve during this time period, which has rather
drastic implications on the expected timing, location, and
severity of the potential storms. Since we`re in the thick of
spring, make sure you monitor the forecast for any updates
throughout the week.

Unfortunately, the uncertainty bleeds into the weekend forecast as
there is significant model divergence from Friday onward. Given
the lack of confidence in any single solution, we stuck close to
national blends for now which advertises daily low rain chances
Friday through the upcoming weekend.

Barnes

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Other than some brief MVFR ceilings to start the TAF cycle, VFR
conditions are expected with decreasing clouds through the
afternoon. It will be mostly clear across North and Central Texas
tonight and Tuesday.

A few thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front late this
afternoon and early this evening but coverage will be too limited
to include in this forecast. It appears the better coverage of
storms will be across Central Texas. The best window of time for
Waco to see storms in the vicinity will be between 20Z and 00Z.
All storms will either dissipate of move east of the region during
the evening.

A light, mainly southwest, wind at midday will turn to the
northwest and increase to between 7 and 13 knots early in the
afternoon. A northwest to north wind at or below 12 knots is
expected tonight through Tuesday.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  64  85  64  89 /  20   0   0   0   0
Waco                82  61  84  62  86 /  30   5   0   0   0
Paris               79  61  81  58  86 /  30  10   0   0   0
Denton              82  59  83  61  88 /  30   0   0   0   5
McKinney            82  61  82  61  86 /  30   5   0   0   0
Dallas              84  63  86  64  89 /  20   5   0   0   0
Terrell             81  62  83  61  86 /  20   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           82  64  84  64  88 /  30  10   0   0   0
Temple              83  62  85  63  87 /  30  10   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       82  59  84  62  89 /  20   0   0   0   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ135-146>148-
158>162-174-175.

&&

$$