Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
FXUS64 KFWD 271846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
146 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1055 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/
/This Afternoon Through Sunday/

A complex of storms currently moving through the Low Rolling
Plains will encounter drier and more stable air as it moves east.
Therefore, storms should rapidly weaken as they move into the
western portion of the forecast area, but there still may be a
few light showers or even some rumbles of thunder though the
afternoon, generally west of US 281. Cloud cover associated with
the dying storm complex will slow warming a bit, especially across
the western zones but highs should still manage to warm into the
middle and upper 80s. The good news is that the Gulf will remain
largely cut off, keeping humidity very tolerable for late May.

A shortwave will approach from the west tonight, displacing the
upper ridge currently in place. A subtle increase in large scale
ascent and a gradual uptick in low level moisture will result in
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Weak
flow aloft and meager instability will keep storms below severe
limits. However, precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches
and weak steering flow will result in efficient rain production
out of some of the storms. We will keep the highest PoPs in the
west where lift and moisture will be most favorable. The good news
is that shower/storm coverage will be scattered so outdoor plans
may only be temporarily disrupted.

Extensive cloud cover in the west Sunday will limit daytime
heating, keeping highs in the middle and upper 70s. The central
and eastern zones should see a bit more sun which will push
temperatures into the 80s.



No significant changes were made to the long term period. The main
story in the long term is the potential for scattered showers and
thunderstorms early next week, including Memorial Day. We`ll have
a break from unsettled weather on Wednesday and Thursday as
ridging aloft builds, but rain/storm chances return by the end of
the week and into the weekend. Otherwise, highs in the mid to
upper 80s are expected through the week with a few areas reaching
the low 90s by the end of the week.


Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Night and Beyond/

Unsettled weather will continue into the early portions of the
work week as the axis of a mid-level shortwave trough slides into
the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
blossom once again over portions of the Texas Panhandle and West
Texas late Sunday. The breakdown of the mid-level ridge that has
remained dominant over the region the past few days and westerly
flow aloft will allow this complex to push toward our western
zones late Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible areawide during the day
Monday as synoptic-scale ascent increases with the approach of the
aforementioned shortwave trough. The best chances for rainfall
greater than 0.75" through Monday night (40-60%) will occur
generally west of the I-35 corridor where the greatest lift will
interact with a moist environment marked by PWATs in the 1.4-1.6
inch range. Deep moisture and slow storm motions may allow for
locally excessive rainfall across portions of North and Central
Texas and isolated flash flooding. Precipitation will become more
isolated in nature on Tuesday as the shortwave trough shifts into
Southeast Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Modest mid-level flow and
limited instability will tamper the overall severe threat.

By Wednesday, ridging will begin building over the region behind
the departing shortwave suppressing precipitation chances across
most of the area through Thursday. An upper-level low will push
into the Desert Southwest by midweek. Weak shortwave impulses
will eject into portions of the Southern Plains supporting
thunderstorm development across the Texas Panhandle late Wednesday
and late Thursday with thunderstorm complexes approaching our
western zones both overnights. The Thursday night into early
Friday complex looks to hold the best potential to push further
into our area as the axis of the upper-level low gradually slides
eastward. Rain chances will continue Friday and into the weekend
as long-range guidance indicates another shortwave trough will
push into the Southern Plains. Otherwise, expect afternoon highs
in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s through the week with
heat indices approaching the low to mid 90s toward the end of the
work week.



.AVIATION... /Issued 1055 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

A complex of thunderstorms across the Big Country will continue
to send a deck of mainly high clouds across the region today. As
the storms move east they will encounter drier and more stable air
which should quickly weaken them. However, we can`t completely
rule out a few lingering sprinkles or light showers reaching the
Metroplex terminals this afternoon. Another complex of storms
should develop across West Texas tonight with the arrival of a
shortwave trough. These storms will likely weaken as the move into
North Texas Sunday morning. However, additional storms will
develop during the afternoon Sunday as the shortwave moves farther
east. Some of these storms may impact the TAF sites. Coverage
should be scattered but will be high enough to mention VCTS in
the extended portion of the DFW TAF.

A southeast wind will continue through Sunday afternoon at
sustained speeds generally less than 12 knots. However, a few
higher gusts are possible.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  68  87  69  83 /   5  10  30  40  60
Waco                85  66  83  66  80 /   5   5  20  40  50
Paris               83  61  85  64  84 /   0   0   5   5  30
Denton              87  64  85  64  82 /   5  10  20  40  50
McKinney            86  64  86  66  82 /   5   5  20  20  50
Dallas              89  68  88  69  84 /   5   5  20  30  60
Terrell             86  64  86  66  84 /   5   5  10  20  50
Corsicana           88  66  87  67  83 /   5   5  20  20  50
Temple              86  66  84  65  81 /   5   5  30  40  40
Mineral Wells       86  64  81  64  80 /  20  30  50  50  60



$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.