746
FXUS64 KFWD 211215
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much of the precipitation has come to an end across Central
  Texas. No additional accumulations are expected.

- Wind chills will range between 7 and 15 degrees Wednesday
  morning.

- A warmup is expected through the end of the week, with showers
  and storms returning to the forecast mainly Saturday night and
  Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
As dry air continues to infiltrate from the north, precipitation
continues to gradually shift southward, closer to the Gulf of
Mexico. The radar continues to pick up precipitation falling from
the clouds across the Brazos Valley, however, low-level dry air is
leading to quick sublimation prior to it reaching the ground.
Given the probabilities of any additional hazards due to the snow
across the Winter Weather Advisory are low, the Winter Weather
Advisory may be cancelled a few hours early.

High temperatures today were slightly lowered compared to the
previous forecast as the latest guidance suggested slightly cooler
temperatures. This did increase the area which is unlikely to
climb above freezing this afternoon. This area will generally be
north and northeast of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex.

As lows tonight dip into the upper teens to lower 20s, wind chill
values will once again bottom out between 7 and 15 degrees. The
Cold Weather Advisory has been extended through 9 am Wednesday.
A warm up will commence Wednesday afternoon as southwesterly winds
continue. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with full sunshine
overhead.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Afternoon/

The upper trough responsible for today`s snow remains well west
of our region this early Tuesday morning, continuing to introduce
light ascent atop North and Central Texas. Looking at the 1 AM
radar scope, precipitation continues to fall across a good portion
of the region. However, many of the radar returns along and north
of the I-20 corridor are not reaching the ground given the dry
sub-cloud layer.

A narrow band of 700mb frontogenesis currently extends from
Hamilton to just south of Hillsboro to Athens. This area is
currently experiencing better forcing for ascent, producing
heavier precipitation and thus, some of it is reaching the ground.
A light dusting of snow has already been reported south of the
I-20. As the band of snow continues shifting south, additional
areas are likely to pick up a dusting to minimal amounts of
measurable snow.

Given this snow is fairly light and dry, it will disperse from
the roads as vehicles move though. This is not to say there will
not be slick spots, however, those slippery roads will remain
isolated throughout much of the region.

For the area under the Winter Weather Advisory, continued snow
showers will increase the risk for slightly elevated travel
hazards tonight into tomorrow morning. Overall, additional
snowfall amounts are likely to stay below half an inch as one last
band of snow moves through.

As the snow moves out later on this morning, we`ll be left with
cold temperatures and mostly cloudy skies. Highs tomorrow will
stay in the 30s areawide with areas north and northeast of the
Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex staying between 30-32 degrees.

Similar to the past couple of days, temperatures overnight will
be in the teens to lower 20s with wind chill values in the single
digits to lower teens. The Cold Weather Advisory will be extended
for one more night before temperatures warm up Wednesday night.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A weak cold front will be moving through North and Central TX
Wednesday night as a broad, positively tilted upper level trough
slowly dips down into the Plains and translates eastward. Outside
of a weak wind shift, it will not be a noteworthy FROPA, with
little to show in the way of any airmass change. Lows Wednesday
and Thursday night will still be below freezing, but dropping into
the mid and upper 20s, rather than the teens and mid 20s that
have been experienced the previous couple of nights.

Weak ridging will nudge in behind the departing trough, promoting
a warming trend with high temperatures mostly in the mid/upper
50s by Friday, with mid 50s/mid 60s expected Saturday. Low level
southerly flow will also return in time for the weekend as the
next approaching upper level trough splits off from the northern
stream upper flow and takes a southerly track along the West
Coast. Moisture advecting northward from the Gulf of Mexico will
send dewpoints back into the 40s and 50s by Saturday. The increased
moisture across the region will interact with another cold front
sliding through as the approaching trough induces lee
cyclogenesis, providing a focus for showers and storms to develop
near/east of I-35 mainly Saturday night and Sunday (20-60%
chance). The main uncertainty among ensemble guidance is the
timing of the overall system, with how quickly the upper level
trough actually departs from the western CONUS. About 40% of the
ensemble guidance has a deeper, slower system that also has the
eastern half of the forecast area well over the climatological
90th Percentile for PWAT (SPC Sounding Climatology depicts 0.88",
with these clusters indicating widespread 1-1.2"). If this
occurred, the better moisture return ahead of the front would
likely allow for higher coverage of precipitation. This front will
not be significant in terms of the recent cold we`ve seen, but
will drop temperatures down a few degrees and likely result in
some locations dropping below freezing Sunday night and Monday
night, after the brief break with lows in the mid 30s and even 40s
expected this weekend. Post-FROPA highs early next week will
likely be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

All precipitation has moved south of the TAF sites, leaving behind
a brisk northerly wind between 10-15 knots with gusts closer to
20 knots. Additionally, a broken deck of MVFR clouds developed a
few hours ago and is gradually progressing into Central Texas. A
TEMPO will continue through 13Z for North Texas with a similar
TEMPO beginning at 13Z and continuing through 17Z for KACT.

By late this afternoon, winds will become southwesterly between
5-8 knots at all TAF sites with no clouds in place. The clear
skies and southwesterly winds will persist through the duration of
this TAF cycle with no significant weather expected.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    34  24  51  28  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                36  22  52  27  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               32  20  45  25  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              34  20  50  24  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            33  20  48  25  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              34  24  51  29  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             34  20  48  26  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           35  23  49  28  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              37  19  52  26  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       35  21  53  24  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ147-
148-158-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$