Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
507 FXUS64 KFWD 160044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 744 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms (20% chance) will continue to gradually dissipate across western North and Central Texas this evening. - Beyond today, most days will be dry with the only low rain chances expected across Central and East Texas on Friday and Saturday. - Highs in the 90s and high humidity will result in daily heat index values in the 97-107 range each afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ /Through Wednesday/ An upper level ridge has inched further into eastern North and Central Texas today, which will result in generally rain-free conditions for areas roughly south of I-20 and east of I-35. Elsewhere, weak troughing aloft will allow another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy downpours will be the main threats. This activity will be diurnally-driven, so expect any lingering showers and storms this evening to dissipate with sunset. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will continue to build in from the east, effectively shutting off any rain chances across the region. Expect a hot and sunny afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and afternoon heat index values mostly between 98-105 degrees. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Rain-free weather and hot temperatures will be the rule through the remainder of the forecast period, as upper level ridging strengthens overhead. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will become common across the region this weekend, with NBM probabilities currently estimating a 20-30% chance for portions of North Texas to reach the century mark on Sunday. Heat index values will climb above 100 degrees for many locations each afternoon this week. Therefore, ensure you`re prioritizing heat safety. The only rain chances will be across portions of Central/East Texas where isolated seabreeze activity will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ SHRA/TSRA that moved into the western part of D10 around 23Z continue to weaken as they progress slowly east, with VCTS only expected at FTW/AFW early this evening and rest of the airports either seeing VCSH or remaining dry. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with south winds to around 15 knots. At ACT, no precip is anticipated but added mention of MVFR cigs from 11-16Z given strong model consensus. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 76 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 Waco 74 93 73 93 73 / 20 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 93 73 95 74 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 95 74 97 74 / 20 5 0 0 0 McKinney 75 94 75 97 74 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dallas 76 96 76 97 76 / 20 0 0 0 0 Terrell 74 95 73 96 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 94 72 94 72 / 20 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 95 73 97 72 / 20 5 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$