Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
615 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022

...New Short Term, Aviation...

Diurnal shower activity remains confined to areas east of I-35 and
south of I-20/30, all of which should come to an end by sunset.
Upper 60s dewpoints will continue to invade the area overnight
into tomorrow morning, resulting in noticeably warmer and more
humid conditions compared to the previous few nights. Another
round of diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is
forecast mainly across our southeastern zones tomorrow aided by
the northward moving tropical disturbance located in Southeast
Texas. Aside from matching the short term forecast to current
observational trends, minimal changes were necessary with this
evening`s update.


Previous Discussion:
/Through Friday/

A warmer day is expected across much of the area today, with
temperatures generally climbing into the mid to upper 90s. A
dense cumulus field has developed across much of East and
Southeast Texas just north of the weak tropical disturbance still
hugging the coast. We could see a few showers and storms develop
within this region as rich Gulf moisture continues to surge
further inland throughout the day. The best chances for showers
and storms will be south of I-20 and east of I-35 this afternoon.

Sometime Friday morning, the disturbance will likely begin to move
further inland which will result in increasing chances for
showers and storms throughout the day. Unfortunately, there is
still fairly significant uncertainty in how far east or west the
disturbance will track, which will largely affect the potential
for showers and storms across the area tomorrow. For now, have
advertised the greatest PoPs across Southeast Texas and the Brazos
Valley, with chances tapering off the further north and west one
goes. If the disturbance takes a more westerly track, PoPs would
likely need to be increased accordingly. Otherwise, a decent
temperature gradient should exist across the region tomorrow,
largely due to the increased cloud cover (or lack thereof). High
temperatures will range from the mid 80s across Southeast Texas
and the Brazos Valley to the upper 90s in western North Texas.



.LONG TERM... /Issued 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022/
/Friday night through Thursday/

The start of the long term portion of the forecast will be
seasonably hot and humid compliments of the weak low pressure
system progged to lift northward across the eastern portions of
Texas Friday through Saturday. Large scale ascent associated with
the low, coupled with more than ample moisture (PWs in excess of 2
inches) across the eastern half of the forecast area, will result
in scattered showers and thunderstorms with a potential for some
localized heavy rainfall. We will maintain the highest PoPs across
the southeastern half of the region Saturday afternoon and
evening, but even the western zones could see a few showers and
storms on the periphery of the cyclonic circulation. Precipitation
will become more centered around the low Saturday night as it
moves into northeast Texas. We will linger some low PoPs across
the north/northeast zones through Sunday morning due to moisture
wrapping around the departing system. Precipitation chances will
decrease to 10 percent or less Sunday afternoon/night once the
upper low finally moves into Arkansas and the upper ridge regains
its true identity. Subsidence under the ridge the remainder of the
week should limit precipitation chances across the entire
forecast area.

The constant fetch of Gulf moisture this weekend through early
next week will keep overnight lows generally in the 70s to around
80. High temperatures on the weekend will be mainly in the lower
to mid 90s, but with the abundant moisture, afternoon heat index
values will reach the triple digits for many. Temperatures will
continue to warm into the July 4th holiday with highs in the upper
90s to around 101 and afternoon heat index values between 100 and
106. Similar (but slightly warmer) high temperatures and heat
index values are expected Tuesday through Thursday, therefore, a
Heat Advisory will likely be necessary for much of North and
Central Texas next week.



/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 30 hours with diurnal
cumulus and FEW/SCT cirrus. Light southeasterly winds of 5-10 kts
will persist with occasional higher gusts during the afternoon
hours. All diurnally driven shower activity through the period is
expected to remain south and east of the D10 airports within the
deeper moisture content present across East Texas.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  95  76  95  78 /   5  10   5  20  10
Waco                74  92  76  93  77 /   5  20  10  30   5
Paris               71  93  71  90  73 /  10  10   5  30  10
Denton              73  95  74  95  76 /   0   5   5  20  10
McKinney            73  94  72  91  74 /   5  10   5  20  10
Dallas              77  95  77  93  79 /   5  10   5  20  10
Terrell             73  94  73  93  75 /  10  20  10  30  10
Corsicana           73  92  75  91  76 /  10  20  10  30  10
Temple              73  93  75  94  76 /   5  20  10  30   5
Mineral Wells       72  97  73  97  74 /   0   5   0  20  10



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