Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
551 FXUS64 KFWD 120622 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 122 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the area from today through Tuesday with primarily a threat for flash flooding. A few storms may also produce strong downburst winds and hail. - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather will resume late in the week, with highs returning to the upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 A period of active weather will begin today with scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting much of North and Central Texas. This will be due a northwestward shift of the upper ridge and a slow-moving mid-level easterly wave/low which will gradually traverse the Southern Plains during the next 72 hours. This pattern shift is already contributing to convection in eastern Oklahoma early this morning, some of which may encroach on our Texoma areas around sunrise as new development progressively occurs along a consolidated outflow boundary. This boundary will likely continue to serve as a focus for new development in North Texas heading into the peak heating hours today, while additional widely scattered thunderstorms develop farther to the south within increasing moisture content while capping easily erodes. While a relative minimum in convective activity may occur overnight, the dynamic ascent from the easterly wave will at least allow isolated/scattered convective activity to persist outside of peak diurnal heating hours, with another blossoming of convection aided by daytime destabilization again on Monday. Rich moisture content with PW values exceeding 2" will allow for for very efficient rain rates during this entire time period, likely on the order of 2-3" per hour. As a result, localized flash flooding will be the primary concern with all activity, which will be further accentuated by slow storm motions with weak flow through the column. There will also be a secondary threat for marginally severe downburst wind gusts and a tertiary hail threat, although these strong/severe convective hazards should stay quite isolated. For the majority of locations, this will largely be a beneficial mid-summer rainfall event, which will also serve to knock temperatures down below normal in the presence of increased cloud cover and rain-cooled outflows. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Active weather will continue Monday night into Tuesday as ascent form the upper low reaches its maximum across Central Texas. Additional heavy rainfall can be expected through the daytime Tuesday mainly south of I-20, with activity remaining more isolated/scattered for most of North Texas. Localized flooding will continue to be the primary hazard. Overall, the three-day rainfall totals will be highly erratic due to the scattered convective nature of precipitation. While some unlucky areas may miss out on rainfall entirely through these few days, others will have seen multi-inch rainfall totals in a short time period. For this reason, QPF messaging in this type of regime is nearly impossible, since model averages that are spatially smoothed will be completely unrepresentative of the final observed rainfall amounts which will take on a much more bimodal distribution. By midweek, as the upper low shifts further southwestward along the southern periphery of the ridge, rain chances will gradually wind down with lingering 20-30% PoPs on Wednesday and roughly 10% chances on Thursday and Friday. The upper ridge will continue to expand and strengthen through the second half of the week, with subsidence taking control. Highs will return to the upper 90s following the preceding few days of below normal highs due to cloud cover and precipitation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with chances for convective impacts at the airports mainly this afternoon and evening. A combination of convection arriving from the north/northeast along with new diurnal development will result in TSRA activity near the TAF sites today, with chances maximized through the peak heating hours. While showers and thunderstorms could linger well into the evening and overnight, the confidence in this activity`s placement is too low to warrant a continuation of precipitation through the end of the TAF period at this time range. Thunderstorms outflows could also result in temporary wind shifts, but otherwise a south/southeast wind around 10 kt will prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 79 97 77 / 10 10 50 60 Waco 96 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 50 Paris 95 75 93 72 / 10 20 40 50 Denton 99 78 95 75 / 10 10 50 50 McKinney 98 79 96 75 / 10 10 50 60 Dallas 98 80 97 77 / 10 10 50 60 Terrell 97 76 95 74 / 10 10 50 60 Corsicana 96 77 96 76 / 20 10 40 50 Temple 93 75 96 75 / 30 10 20 50 Mineral Wells 97 74 96 72 / 10 10 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley