094
FXUS65 KGJT 101752
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1152 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue drifting eastward as a
  weak disturbance moves through this morning. Afternoon
  convection will favor the Continental Divide.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in place today as dry, hot, and windy
  conditions occur this afternoon.

- Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through mid
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The weak shortwave currently moving across the CWA is producing
quite a bit of lightning this morning so if you thought you
heard thunder last night, there`s a good chance you did.
Currently, the I-70 corridor and the Uncompahgre Plateau are
seeing the strongest convection which the CAMs have picked up on
quite well. The current convection will continue to track
eastward this morning. Once the wave pushes to the Front Range,
a weak cold front will start dropping down from Wyoming and
daytime heating and moisture should keep some convection going
through the afternoon hours, mostly along the Continental
Divide. Wouldn`t be surprised to see some development over the
higher terrain north of the I-70 corridor as well. The main
concern from storms will be some gusty outflow winds of 40 to
possibly 50 mph...maybe some small hail as well. Deep mixing
will allow some stronger winds aloft to mix to the surface,
outside of convection, and with low humidities still in place,
critical fire weather conditions are expected as described
below.

Friday, another weak wave will move across the CWA bringing
another round of convection to the region. Most convection will
be confined to the Continental Divide and like today, the main
concern will be some gusty outflow winds.

High temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday
with similar high temps expected on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 233 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Things moisten up some throughout the weekend, though PWAT`s
should stay below normal. Should we see any notable showers or
thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, they`ll likely develop
over the San Juans where the NBM has consistently shown a 40-60%
probability of wetting rain. As of now, Sunday looks to be the
more promising day of the two.

High pressure extends back eastwards towards the Rockies early in
the work week while another broad trough develops to our north.
Ensembles are hinting that next week could receive a moderate boost
in moisture, partially coming from the Pacific through the trough
and partially from the Gulf through the shifting high pressure
pattern. The exact details on this setup will vary depending on the
exact location of low and high pressure centers across the CONUS,
but trends are indicating a heightened chance for showers and
thunderstorms across the region through portions of next week.
Otherwise, valley high temperatures will stay 5-10 degrees above
normal throughout the long-term period, though higher elevations may
drop to near-normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A passing disturbance will bring increased afternoon wind gusts
and isolated showers and thunderstorms to the region. Gusts of
20 to 30 mph are possible at TAF sites this afternoon. Stronger
gusts may be possible near showers and thunderstorms. Most
of the precipitation will be along the Continental Divide,
although PROB30 has been included for KVEL due to showers
developing nearby. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, and
winds should become light overnight as the passing disturbance
leaves our area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Wind gusts of 25-35 mph with RH in the teens and single digits
will occur along and south of I-70 this afternoon. These
conditions along with critical fuels will create critical fire
weather conditions so the Red Flag Warnings remain in place
today. Winds decrease on Friday through the weekend although
temperatures stay above normal. The chance of wetting rain in
the coming days is low. Lightning starts will be a concern with
the warm and dry conditions given there is a chance for showers
and storms each afternoon into next week.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ203-205-
     207-290>294.
UT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for UTZ487-490-
     491.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...TGJT