479
FXUS63 KGLD 141836
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1236 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon through
  sunset. Primary hazards include wind gusts to 60 mph which may
  also produce some blowing dust followed by hail up to 1" in
  diameter.

- Continued chances (20%-50%) for showers/thunderstorms
  Wednesday/Wednesday night.

- Overall coverage of showers/thunderstorms remains low Thursday
  then Saturday night, Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Today-tonight...a subtle shortwave within/ahead of a broader upper
level trough is forecast to emerge off the Colorado front range and
into the forecast area this afternoon, supporting 20%-50% chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Primary hazards this afternoon/early
evening will be wind gusts to 60 mph and perhaps some hail up to 1"
in diameter. Local dust storm research findings suggest a few
cells could produce some blowing dust given 0.5-1km wind speeds
of at least 43kts using the hourly GFS model. As this feature
continues slowly east overnight there will be 20%-40% chances
for showers and thunderstorms associated with it, mainly north
of a line from Yuma to Hill City. Yuma county remains in a
slight chance for precipitation due to a bit of an increase in
mid level moisture and lift ahead of the main upper trough axis.


High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 80s with
low temperatures in the middle 40s to middle 50s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...NAM/GFS/ECMWF 850-500mb relative
humidity forecasts are generally in agreement with better moisture
for showers and thunderstorms across the far western/southwestern
parts of the forecast area during the day as the upper trough axis
approaches the area. For now, have limited pops up to 30% for
counties surrounding our neighboring offices. Overnight, NAM/ECMWF
850-500mb moisture and qpf remain across the far southwestern parts
of the area while the GFS remains the boldest in producing higher
pops (30%-50%) across the area, highest south of I-70.

High temperatures wont be as warm with readings in the upper 60s to
middle 70s. Low temperatures will be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.

Thursday-Thursday night...we`ll continue to have 20%-30% chances for
rainfall during the day as the upper trough axis takes its time
moving through the area with NAM/GFS showing sufficient moisture
from 850-500mb for some light qpf. Overnight, a lack of moisture
behind the upper trough suggests a dry forecast across the area. NBM
paints some 20% pops across Yuma county for some reason. Will keep
it in the forecast to match up with neighbors and wouldnt be
surprised if its removed in later forecasts.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to upper 70s with
low temperatures in the middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

A dry and warm start to the extended period is forecast as the area
looks to be between two systems.  Warm area looks to be in place
across the SW CONUS and then spread northward through the High
Plains. High temperatures in the 80s are currently forecast.
Dew points are currently forecast in the 30s to 40s which should
help keep heat indices below the actual air temperature
therefore mitigating any potential heat risk concerns. However
due to this being one of the more warmer couple day stretches we
have seen so far this year, some may not be quite acclimated to
the warmth. I do have some concerns for how warm it actually be
as moisture will remain in place. GFS also has a surface high
in place with with NNE winds which may advect in cooler air from
that area; the climatological days that usually give us the
warmest air are when southerly or southwesterly winds are
present.


The latter portion of the extended looks to become more active as a
trough sets up across the SW CONUS emanating multiple waves of
energy across the Plains. Moisture currently does look to be in
place for showers and storms, perhaps severe. Currently the more
favored day for severe weather looks to be Monday as a surface
low develops across SW Kansas. GFS forecast soundings indicate
2500 j/kg of MUCAPE and 0-6 shear in excess of 40 knots. PWATS
will also be on the increase Sunday night on through the new
week so will need to keep an eye on excessive rainfall potential
as well. The potential active pattern does look to continue for
the majority of the week as SW troughing remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the
forecast period. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminals beginning later
this afternoon and continuing into the evening and overnight
hours. There is a possibility of two waves of storms, the first
occurring this afternoon/evening, and the second occurring
around daybreak. Any storms will result in wind shifts due to
outflow and the possibility of some blowing dust.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Wekesser