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815
FXUS62 KGSP 070635
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
235 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and more humid conditions return on today and linger through
midweek featuring daily afternoon and evening shower and
thunderstorm chances. The heat abates somewhat into the weekend but
daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 2:15 AM EDT Monday: The remnants of Tropical Depression
Chantal continue to gradually make their way northward and into
southern Virginia. Any rain bands associated with the system are
now well to our NE. We have had a small cluster of showers with
a few embedded lightning strikes develop over our southernmost
tier of counties over the past couple of hrs, but this activity
should dissipate over the next hour or two. Otherwise, things
should remain relatively quiet thru the morning with lows near,
if not slightly above climatology for early July.

The remnants of Chantal will continue to weaken as it drifts
N/NE today, with the system eventually moving up and off the
mid-Atlanitc Coast and merging with weak low pressure to its
north. We will remain under the western periphery of broad
upper ridging centered well offshore today and tonight with
some degree of weak, downslope flow across most of our area.
Sfc winds will return to SWLY outside the mtns, with tempera-
tures expected to climb back into the mid to upper-90s across
most of our lower terrain this afternoon. Fairly deep mixing
is expected this afternoon, which coupled with the weak down-
slope flow should keep dewpts low enough to prevent heat index
values from reaching Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees.
Dry profiles aloft along with the decent mixing should limit
convective development to widely sct showers/thunderstorms
over the mtns and foothills with more isolated development
elsewhere. Where convection does fire, weak shear and rela-
tively dry mid-levels could support an isolated microburst
or two.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 115 AM Monday: Mid and upper level ridging over the SE CONUS
holds on Tuesday then is suppressed on Wednesday as a short wave
moves into the area from the west. Despite the ridge on Tuesday, the
atmosphere becomes unstable with diurnal convection developing
favoring the mountains. That said, a lee trough will help focus
convection outside of the mountains leading to the potential for a
few severe storms. Damaging winds would be the main threat with
relatively high DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e. Expect better coverage
of convection across the area Wednesday given the better upper
forcing and another lee trough. DCAPE and sfc delta theta-e are
lower as moisture becomes deeper, limiting severe chances. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 90s outside of the mountains and around
90 in the mountain valleys. Dew points should mix out during the
afternoon keeping heat index values below the 105 Heat Advisory
criterion with values around 100 or slightly higher. Highs drop a
couple of degrees Wednesday, with fewer locations still reaching the
100 degree heat index range.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 140 AM Monday: An active period expected through the long term
as a series of short waves move near or cross the area. A stationary
front remains to our north as a series of low pressure centers move
along it. A lee trough develops each day to help focus convection. A
moist, unstable air mass remains in place as well. The best chances
for widespread convection are Wednesday and Thursday with some
recession to the mean for the weekend with a more typical PoP
pattern favoring the mountains. The threat of excessive rainfall
could increase Thursday and Friday given the previous days
convective potential. Severe chances look to be limited but not zero
given the continued deep moisture leading to lower DCAPE values.
Highs also see a recession to the mean with near normal values Thu
and Fri then rising a couple of degrees for the weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions thru the 06z taf
period at all taf sites. The only exception could be localized
restrictions from any SHRA/TSRA that directly impact the terminals
this aftn/evening. The rain and deeper moisture remained to our
east on Sunday, thus a relatively dry airmass should limit the
fog/low stratus potential overnight across our area. Expect few
to sct cumulus and some higher cirrus to develop this afternoon,
with isolated to sct showers and thunderstorms developing mainly
over the mtns during the aftn/evening. Based on the latest CAM
guidance, there appears to be enough coverage to warrant a PROB30
for TSRA for KAVL, KCLT, and KHKY, although coverage will likely
be less in the vicinity of KCLT and KHKY. Any convective activity
should diminish by 00z or just thereafter. Winds will be light and
VRB to calm at most sites thru the morning, with KCLT and KHKY
still favoring a light, SWLY wind thru the morning. Winds will
pick up from SW (outside the mtns) this aftn and become light and
VRB to calm again later tonight. At KAVL, winds will remain calm
to light and VRB thru the morning and into the aftn. They will
eventually favor more of a NWLY direction later this aftn, but
speeds are expected to remain light (less than 5 kts).

Outlook: More typical summertime weather is expected thru mid-week,
with sct to numerous SHRA/TSRA mainly in the aftn/evening and fog
and/or low stratus possible each morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT