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000
FXUS62 KILM 070300
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1000 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring another chilly day on Thursday before
a warmup commences on Friday as it moves offshore. A cold front
will bring an unsettled Sunday that will include heavy rain,
gusty winds, and perhaps some thunder. High pressure builds in
behind the cold front for the first half of next week, bringing
cool and dry weather once again.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes necessary from the ongoing forecast. Temps have
fallen further than expected due to calm winds and have made
necessary adjustments to better reflect these trends. High
pressure builds nearly overhead tonight, permitting good
radiational cooling beneath clear skies and gradually falling
dewpoints. Thus, most locations away from the immediate coast
are expected to fall near or below freezing with considerable
frost possible where dewpoints are locally higher.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level trough pushing offshore this evening will escort cloud
cover and a strong pressure gradient east of the area. Cold and dry
air advection overnight will manifest as a weak northerly wind
around 5 knots. Weak mixing overnight will keep temperatures near
freezing, slightly below along the I-95 corridor. Sunny and cool on
Thursday with high pressure over the southeastern US.  Highs in the
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure shifts offshore allowing for warm advection through
the period.  After a fairly seasonable Thursday night Friday
afternoon will run a few degrees above climatology, the anomaly
growing to about 10 degrees by Friday night. Forecast soundings show
a considerable increase in cirrus level moisture helping to bolster
Friday night`s lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm advection continues into Saturday pushing the mercury to 70
degrees in most places, some 10 degrees above normal. The
weather will then deteriorate rapidly Saturday night into Sunday
as phasing jet branches push a cold front into the eastern U.S.
With such strong forcing the prospects for some heavy rain
appear good and severe weather also appears possible though
instability is lacking in forecast soundings. Synoptic winds
will readily gust to 30-35 mph and one last day of 70 degree
warmth is expected. Cool and dry advection then kicks in Sunday
night and should last for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR expected through the TAF period. Light NW winds will likely
go calm overnight, permitting near- to sub-freezing lows at the
terminals. Falling dewpoints should prevent much, if any, frost
formation on aircraft. Otherwise, as surface high pressure
shifts to our southwest during the daylight hours, winds will
shift to WSW around midday but remain generally light and
without the gustiness observed on Wednesday.

Extended Outlook...MVFR/IFR ceilings should develop Saturday
and Sunday due to an approaching cold front. VFR returns by
Monday behind the cold front, albeit with gusty N/NW winds
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tomorrow... Gusts will abate quickly this evening, falling
below 20-25 knots by midnight. Northerly flow with building high
pressure gradually weakens overnight into Thursday as winds back,
becoming westerly tomorrow afternoon. Given that seas are largely
wind-driven this evening, 3-5 foot seas will improve late
tonight, becoming 1-2 feet on Thursday.

Thursday night through Monday...  Quiet weather to start the period
as high pressure moves offshore. Light westerly winds turn to the
south by Saturday both as the high expands northward and a cold
front approaches from the west. This front is due on Sunday and will
be accompanied by strong dynamics that will build wind and seas into
advisory thresholds. Visibility-limiting heavy rain will be an
additional hazard. Northwesterly and then northerly winds on Monday
should steepen wave faces even as both wind and seas abate below
advisory thresholds.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM