Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 221028
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
628 AM EDT Tue Jun 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west today along with a threat
of strong to isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The front will slide off the Carolina Coasts and stall
just offshore tonight thru the end of this week. High pressure
will eventually become dominant Thu thru Sat with onshore flow
prevailing. Slightly below normal temps can be expected today
thru Thu. Normal temps and increased thunderstorm chances return
Fri thru the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a 90+ degree Monday, aided by post Claudette, the FA will
see changes the next 2 days to a below normal temp regime. But
1st, a cold front moving ESE, will move across the Carolinas
this afternoon and night, stalling just offshore Wed. Expect
showers and thunderstorms to occur ahead of the cold front, with
the entire ILM CWA likely to observe some rainfall not
necessarily from a direct hit from these thunderstorms
Nevertheless, looking at the high end of a POP fcst with likely
or hier possible. This aftn/evening the best dynamics aloft and
from the days heating will combine to create possibly strong to
isolated svr ones. With much cloudiness and pcpn encompassing
the FA, instability will be limited due to the lack of sfc
heating. Shear aloft will be at the low end across the FA,
higher further north. SPC has kept the SVR threat to marginal
and will mention here and the HWO. The sfc pg will remain
tightened up until the CFP, and have indicated gusty SW winds.
Have kept today`s max temps on the hier side of guidance as
well as tonights lows. For Wed, will likely have post frontal
low stratus, especially closer to the coast, with drier air
aloft mixing occurring inland which may allow for more sun then
is currently fcst. The threat for showers remains closer to the
coast and will continue to carry low chance POPs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A somewhat progressive mid level trough will be moving
across the Eastern U.S. through the period. Characteristic of a
trough in late June its movement will be slow and the movement of
its associated surface boundary is always a wildcard. Will continue
to have decent pops on a west to east gradient (highest along the
coast) through Thursday. Friday looks interesting as guidance is
showing a movement of the front inland and its during this time we
are advertising the highest pops. Temperatures will definitely be
on the cool side as surface high pressure behind the front
builds in albeit perhaps briefly. This along with some cloud
cover will keeps highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows
perhaps in the middle 60s or so.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The mid level pattern will be somewhat nondescript as
Bermuda Ridging retreats slightly with troughing in the Central
Plains. It seems like good chance pops are in place each day with
the sea breeze and inland trough. Temperatures appear to be at or
near average not surprisingly via the aforementioned benign mid
level pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak convection already occurring over portions of the CWA. A
cold front will approach the region from the west this
afternoon. Another round of stronger convection is expected from
mid afternoon into the evening. Brief periods of IFR
visibilities are expected.

Extended Outlook...Convection with periodic MVFR/IFR, Tue
night, will slide just off the Carolina Coasts come early Wed.
Post cold frontal MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible late Tue night
into Wed but should improve and clear out, especially at
KFLO/KLBT. Mainly VFR conditions are expected Thu through Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
SCA conditions to prevail today thru tonight, leading up to the
arrival of the cold front late tonight. Modest and gusty SW
winds due to the continued tightened sfc pg ahead of the
approaching cold front as well as some mixing from just off the
deck where SW wind speeds are 25 to 30 kt sustained. Expect the
CFP to occur during the pre-dawn Wed hrs, sinking SE-ward to
just offshore before stalling during Wed. Winds will back to the
NE-ENE after FROPA and actually may be underdone by guidance.
The post cold frontal NE surge will lie just below SCA
thresholds but the seas will be slow to subside due to the
stalled front in close proximity and the continued pseudo/fresh
swell feed. SCA thresholds will be borderline during Wed,
especially the waters off Cape Fear. Seas generally 5 to 8 ft at
the start, subsiding to 3 to 5 ft at the end of the fcst period
but subject to change especially toward the end. Potential SMW
type convection by midday today and continuing into the evening
with potential for 34+ kt wind gusts and occasional/frequent
reduced vsby below 1nm at times from the heavy rain.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...
A decent northeast flow on the order of 15-20 knots with
an emphasis on the lower end of the range will be in place
through late Thursday. This as high pressure builds in from the
northeast with a front in the area. A lethargic shift to east,
southeast will occur through Friday with the remainder of the
period indicating a modest southeast flow as well. Significant
seas will run the range of 2-4 feet initially with perhaps a few
hours of 3-5 feet later Thursday dropping back for the
remainder of the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for SCZ054.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056.
NC...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NCZ106-108-110.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
MARINE...DCH/SHK


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