994
FXUS64 KLIX 072358
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
658 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

We are currently sitting between the noses of two high pressure
systems, one centered over the desert southwest and the other
being the Bermuda high intruding over the far northeast Gulf. The
gap in between is a relative low pressure area at the base of a
trough over the midwest. This setup is allowing for convection
over the CWA. Rain rates could cause some minor flash flooding,
especially in urban areas where runoff is controlled by
impermeable surfaces. Tomorrow will see the center of the low
pressure moving into the nortwest Gulf decreasing rain chances
slightly, although still in the 50% range west of I-55 and 30-40%
east of of I-55.

High temperatures will be in the 90s today and tomorrow with
humidities that the push the feels-like temps up to the low 100s.
Overnight low temps will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A weak shortwave will arrive over the Mid Mississippi River
Valley by Wednesday, slow down as it gets stuck in between the
ridges on either side of it, and begin to lose its coherence. As
it does so, this will begin the gradual trend back up in PoPs
each afternoon starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing into
the latter half of the week.

During the second half of the week, deep moisture will increase
across the area with precipitable water forecast to be near or
just above 2 inches across most of the area. This should lead to
a further increase in convective coverage with storms becoming
more numerous to widespread Thursday and Friday. The increase in
moisture will also lead to potential for more efficient rainfall.
While widespread heavy rain is not forecast, individual storms
will be capable of producing high rainfall rates with a couple
inches of accumulation in a relatively short period of time.

By the weekend, it`s less clear whether we`ll see this troughing
linger and continue to enhance afternoon PoPs or if the ridge will
nose back in enough to allow temperatures to nudge back closer to
the mid to upper 90s. Regardless, the muscle memory of this
pattern continues to support persistence forecasts of near or
slightly above normal temperatures with elevated chances for
afternoon storms each day, and that will continue until we see a
considerable shift to the longwave weather pattern at a time TBD.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Lingering stratiform showers from afternoon storms remain present
over SW Mississippi and adjacent parishes, but will continue to
gradually clear out during the next hour. VFR conditions will be
prevailing at all terminals through the overnight hours with
exception to MCB where MVFR VIS from patchy fog will likely occur
again given the heavy rainfall late in the day, just like
yesterday. Although storm coverage will be a bit more isolated
than prior days on Tuesday, still have high enough probs to add
PROB30s to most terminals with respective timings of onset
happening from the coast at around 1700-1800 UTC to inland
terminals through 2000-2400 UTC. Lowest confidence in impacts are
at ASD (due to lake shadow), MCB, and GPT on Tuesday. Have added
a PROB30 for a narrow window at GPT in which a storm or two could
develop on the seabreeze nearby before it lifts north.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Winds will be southerly to southwesterly, with a brief deviation
to full westerly on Wednesday. Windspeeds will remain between 5
and 10 kt. A fairly typical summertime convective pattern is expected
with showers and storms developing during the late night, peaking
during the morning hours, and diminishing through the afternoon and
evening. Storm coverage over the waters will increase in coverage
during the morning hours each morning starting Wednesday into the
weekend with widespread storms most likely on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  92  72  91 /  20  50  10  70
BTR  73  92  74  93 /  10  50  10  70
ASD  73  93  73  93 /  10  40  10  70
MSY  77  93  77  93 /  10  50  10  70
GPT  75  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  60
PQL  73  92  73  93 /  10  30  20  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...DS