Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 150902
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
402 AM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
A broad upper level ridge centered near the 4 Corners region extends
from northern Mexico to Canada. To the east, an upper level trough
is diving south across the Ohio River Valley and into the
Appalachian Mountains. The CWA is on the southeast edge of the
ridge. That means influences of both of those features can be
expected locally. Temps should be low to mid 90s today and with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will rise over 100 but
below 108. For rain chances today, the general consensus between
CAMs and medium range models is scattered afternoon thunderstorms
mainly south if I-12 in LA and along the MS coast. It looks like a
seabreeze initiated day with outflow boundaries controlling what
direction storms will move. In regards to any storms that do
develop, the stronger ones will be borderline SPS/SVR based on BUFR
soundings indicated high CAPE values (4000j/kg) combined with high
dewpoint depressions in the low levels. Damaging winds and hail will
be the main threats.

Wednesday and Thursday will be a gradual transition into a brief
drier period as the ridge to the west slightly expands farther east
over the CWA and the trough to the east pulls farther away. There`ll
still be afternoon convection but coverage will be a little less
each day with possibly none as we end the week.

MEFFER
&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night and beyond)...

All eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico where NHC shows a 70% chance
of a tropical cyclone of some sort developing in the next 5 days.
With no significant circulation ongoing at this time, the models
will not handle the details very well. And the 00z ECMWF/00z GFS are
offering different solutions, not only with location, but with
timing as well. The main threat certainly looks to be heavy rainfall
at this time, with rain/storms potentially beginning to impact the
area as early as Friday.

The local area should at least be aware of the potential for heavy
(and potentially very heavy) rainfall over the weekend. A few inches
to well over a foot of rain are certainly a possibility but
confidence isn`t very high at this time on whether that will fall
over a specific drainage basin, a metro area, east of the CWA or
just on offshore waters. Now is the time to be thinking about how to
prepare.

For now, will carry the NBM numbers for PoPs and temperatures. The
PoP numbers will increase for some periods of the extended as timing
becomes clearer. Any periods that experience heavy rainfall with
this system aren`t likely to see highs much above the lower 80s, and
may need to drop current forecast temperatures a few degrees.

35/MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
Primarily a VFR forecast. Some light fog possible around sunrise at
KMCB and will carry a couple hours of MVFR visibilities there. Only
other real question will be the potential for convective development
during the heat of the day. If there is any TSRA development, it
would likely be in the 18z-00z time frame, but at this time, point
probabilities look to be too low to carry that far out in the
forecast.

35
&&

.MARINE...
The surface pressure field in place will remain weak through the
first half of this week. This will cause winds and seas to relax and
lead to winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet. The
remainder of the forecast period will be determined by the strength
and track of a potential low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. At
this time, looks like the pressure field will not be influenced by
this potential system until the upcoming weekend or later. By then,
looking at no less than Small Craft Advisory conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  94  72  93  69 /  20   0  10   0
BTR  94  73  93  72 /  40  10  20   0
ASD  94  74  93  72 /  30  10  20   0
MSY  94  77  93  77 /  40  10  30   0
GPT  93  75  91  74 /  30  10  20  10
PQL  94  74  91  72 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


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