590
FXUS65 KLKN 262122
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
222 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Look for evening isolated to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms to be focused mainly across the central and
eastern portions of Nevada. Temperatures will be cooler on
Saturday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across
portions of White Pine and eastern Elko counties. Smoke from
several California wildfires will impact much of the region over
the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night. Radar is less active
versus 24 hours ago with a few cells developing in far east-
central Nevada. The air mass has dried out considerably since last
night. Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to continuing developing in the central part of the forecast area
this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and
60s.

Southwest flow aloft will keep the moisture at bay tomorrow as a
weak upper trough tracks across northwestern Nevada. Afternoon
highs will be much cooler than what we have experienced with
readings in the 80s, with some low 90s possible in the central
sections. Winds will be breezy with some gusts to 25 to 30 mph.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Saturday
afternoon across northeastern Nevada. Highs will be in the 80s
with low 90s possible in central Nevada. Clear and quiet
conditions persist during the overnight with lows dipping into the
40s and 50s.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday

Confluent upper level flow over northern California and Nevada on
Sunday lead in to a quiet weather pattern for the area in the
long term. Zonal flow over the region separates the upper level
trough to the north over the northern Rockies and the upper level
ridge attempting to build back into the Four Corner region and
southern Plains. Aided by an upper level low working its way up
the Pacific coast from the Baja of California, the ridge will
slowly amplify over the SW CONUS through Friday.

Sunday afternoon there will be a low 10% to 15% chance for a
stray storm over far NE Elko County, with any storms that do form
most likely will be dry which will elevate fire weather concerns
due to lightning strikes. Precipitation and convective chances are
difficult to come by for the rest of this week over the area.
Monsoonal moisture will steer clear of the region through Friday.
Single digit RH values over Nye and White Pine counties Monday
combined with potential 25-30 knot wind gusts prompt concerns for
elevated fire weather in those areas.

Temperatures will slowly increase through the week as the ridge
builds into the region from the south. Highs in the 80s on Sunday
will give way to low-to-mid 90 values Monday and Tuesday. By
Thursday and Friday highs across the region will reach the upper
90s with a few locations even touching triple digits. What is
unclear at this point will be the effects of potential wildfire
smoke over the area. At the time of forecast the Park Fire in
northeastern California was emitting appreciable smoke over
northern Nevada. The impact of smoke on the forecast will need to
be monitored and updated as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions exist this afternoon away from any
thunderstorms that form over the southern portion of the CWA.
Conditions could deteriorate over northern Nevada for the KWMC,
KBAM, and KEKO terminals with the return of smoke from wildfires
in California. MVFR and potentially IFR conditions (mainly KWMC-
KBAM) may occur overnight as models indicate smoke drifting back
over the area.

Afternoon VCTS are expected to be present at KELY and KTPH,
beginning later in the afternoon, between 22Z and 00Z. Winds will
be somewhat breezy in the afternoon with gusts 18KT to 20KT
expected at all terminals, though convective wind gusts to 45KT
are possible with any storms that move on terminal at KELY and
KTPH. Localized blowing dust, small hail, and brief heavy rain
fall will be additional concerns under any thunderstorms and
periods of MVFR or IFR may be possible. VCTS chances diminish
after sunset and should remain away from the region through
Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Drier air has pushed across much of northern and
central Nevada this afternoon. Enough moisture exists in east-
central Nevada to allow for the development of isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. These will continue
into the evening hours tonight. By tomorrow, a weak upper trough
will keep the southwest flow aloft with mainly dry conditions
continuing. Isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in
northeast and east-central Nevada. Winds in the afternoon will
become breezy with gusts to 30 mph in some locations. This will
bring elevated fire weather conditions across portions of 437,
438, 469, 470, and 425 due to winds and minimum relative humidity
values around 10 to 15 percent. Conditions will remain dry Sunday
with lighter winds. However, Monday is looking like another
elevated fire weather day as winds are expected to gust in the 25
to 30 mph with minimum relative humidity values around 10 to 15
percent. This will need to be watched for any fire weather
headlines. Look for afternoon highs to warm back into the mid to
upper 90s by mid-week, though smoke from wildfires in California
may limit warming by a degree or two due to the smoke.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/99/99/86