Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
FXUS65 KLKN 251014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
314 AM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures will be joined by showers and
thunderstorms today thru tomorrow as an upper low moves across the
PacNW, bringing a frontal boundary thru the forecast area.
Elevated fire weather concerns will be present tomorrow. Dry but
cooler weather the latter half of the week.


.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night

High pressure continues to reside over the four corners region
this morning with a deep upper low situated offshore of the
PacNW. Low progresses eastward Tuesday and Wednesday with a modest
cold front moving thru the forecast area from the northwest
Wednesday. Increasing mid level moisture ahead of the low and
attendant front will allow for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon with activity persisting thru
tonight. Strong outflow winds with gusts 45mph and lightning will
be the main concerns. Best chances for wetting rains,
accumulations greater than 0.10", will be over the high terrain.
Better coverage in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday though
activity will be mostly situated across the eastern half of the
forecast area with the same concerns for gusty outflow winds and
lightning present. Activity dissipates Wednesday night.

Temperatures remain warm today and tomorrow with daytime highs in
the upper 80s to upper 90s and overnight lows in the low 50s to
low 60s tonight, cooling to the upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday


.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday

Moisture will be largely pushed eastward Wednesday night into
Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures
will be knocked down to a more comfortable mix of lower to mid 80s
across northern Nevada with 90s remaining US-50 southward. West
winds will be elevated but lower temperatures humidity will be
above critically low thresholds across northeastern Nevada. A few
showers along the Utah/Nevada border are possible but not
widespread and favored over higher terrain. Very dry conditions,
including daytime relative humidity of 10% or below in many
valleys, move back into the region under zonal flow by Friday.
Hotter temperatures in the 90s area wide return for the weekend.
Another upper-level trough skirts the area to the north Sunday but
confidence is a bit low in terms of impacts. Impacts are expected
mainly along the ID/NV border including a few
showers/thunderstorms along with gusty winds and low humidity
across central Nevada raising fire weather concerns.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through mid-morning.
Additional mid to upper-level moisture will move into central and
northeastern Nevada Tuesday allowing for more widespread
convection including isolated dry thunderstorms. Gusty outflow
winds and lightning will be the primary threats starting around
20Z. Breezy winds from the SW-W expected to affect all TAF sites
during the afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to 20


.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer than normal temperatures continue thru
Wednesday with daytime highs residing in the upper 80s to upper
90s. Low humidity will also be a concern with minimum afternoon RH
values residing in the 10% to 15% range. Combined with afternoon
breezes Tuesday, and slightly stronger, cold front driven
west/southwest winds Wednesday with gusts up to 35 MPH, will
produce fire weather conditions near critical. Additionally, a
mix of dry and wet thunderstorms are forecast across most of the
forecast area Tuesday and Tuesday night, with showers and
thunderstorms focused across the eastern half of the forecast area
Wednesday. Another consideration is fuels and fuel loading. With
low elevation fine fuels mostly cured, went ahead and issued a
fire weather watch for Wednesday for zones 437 and 424. RH values
recover some the latter half of the week along with cooler
temperatures, however afternoon winds will remain breezy.


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening Humboldt County-Quinn...Southeastern Humboldt County and
northern Lander County.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday Southeastern Elko County.