Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
561 FXUS65 KLKN 121956 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1256 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 * A warming trend will continue through next week. * Triple digit heat possible in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses each afternoon Sunday through Wednesday. * Low chances for afternoon and early evening thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Friday) Issued at 1234 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery is showing a few clouds around the area this afternoon. Cumulus buildups are noted across central Nevada at this time. The main weather feature is an expansive upper level ridge with a circulation centered over southern California. Sitting atop the ridge is a weak upper level trough. Look for clear and quiet weather tonight with lows in the 50s. Sunday and Monday, the upper ridge is forecast to maintain its current position while the upper trough sags slightly to the south. Afternoon cumulus buildups are likely in portions of central Nevada Sunday, along the US Highway 50 corridor. LCLs are forecast to be at or above 500mb and PWs around a half inch or so. Winds will be light with some afternoon gusts to 20 mph. The main story will be very warm conditions, to which a heat advisory will be in effect. Highs will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Conditions will quiet during the overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s. By Monday the ridge axis will shift to the east with the circulation over southern California/western Arizona. Forecast PWs will be around a half to tho-thirds of an inch Monday afternoon and a marginally unstable atmosphere, which will help to bring isolated bouts of dry thunderstorms. The likelihood remains rather low at roughly ten to fourteen percent and right now it looks as if the best chances will be across the northernmost portions of the forecast area. Highs will again be warm with more locations forecast to touch the triple digits. The heat advisory will continue with readings in the mid 90s to low 100s. Winds will be breezy with gusts to 20 mph. Overnight is expected to remain mostly clear with lows in the 50s and 60s. One last warm day is anticipated Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to low 100s. The heat advisory has been extended through Tuesday evening as a result. Otherwise, the ridge will slide east while the upper trough sags to the south along the California coast. Enough moisture is expected with another round of isolated dry thunderstorms across northern Nevada (see fire discussion below). Otherwise, expect breezy afternoon winds with gusts to 25 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy during the overnight with lows in the 50s and 60s. Wednesday through Friday, models are showing the continual slow trek of the ridge to the east, setting up shop over the Four- Corners region. This will help to bring subtropical moisture to the central parts of the forecast area. Have included isolated storms that far out for the end of the period. Highs will be in the 90s with lows in the 50s and 60s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high on the very warm temperatures beginning Sunday and last through roughly Tuesday. With respect to PoPs and associated weather, confidence is low due to spatial and temporal differences with NBM. Therefore, have kept low end PoPs and dry thunderstorms in the forecast through the afternoon periods from Monday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Light winds with occasional gusts up to 20 kts are possible today. Afternoon cumulus buildups are expected with CIGs ranging from FL100 to FL150 across northern and central NV. AMD NOT SKED at KELY due to malfunctioning VIS sensor. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions with light winds will persist through the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the western U.S. Weak instability across northern and central Nevada will lead to afternoon cumulus build-ups. On Monday, increasing instability will bring a 5-15% chance of dry thunderstorms, mainly north of the I-80 corridor in zones 437, 438, 469, and 470. Winds will also increase slightly Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with gusts in the 15-25 mph range and possibly up to 30 mph in northern zones 469 and 470. The next chance of dry thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon and early evening, primarily over zones 438, 469, 470 (10-20% chance). Other zones generally have a 5-10% chance of dry thunderstorms. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday NVZ030-033-036>038-040-041. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...90