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000
FXUS64 KLUB 081705
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1205 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

As of 2:30 am a complex of showers and thunderstorms is diving
southeast across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle into the
northern Rolling Plains. This activity should be east of our
forecast area by daybreak. This activity is associated with a
shortwave that is moving across the South Plains this morning and
should be east of the forecast area by early this afternoon.
Increasing subsidence aloft combined with the strengthening ridge
should keep the forecast area dry this afternoon and evening. The
increasing heights and mostly sunny skies will also help
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s area wide with light
winds. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with temperatures
dropping back into the mid 50s over the southwestern Texas Panhandle

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Not much change in the forecast for the weekend through next week
with upper ridging being the overall dominate feature. The upper
ridge will hinder most organized precip. Most chances will come from
subtle weaknesses in the  upper ridge which would likely result in
diurnal popcorn convection that is typical of mid to late summer.
Models do continue to have a cold front pushing into the region late
Saturday into Sunday but develop no precip along/with the front.
Given how easily convection has been initiated lately due to high
moisture availability, at least some showers and thunderstorms
should be possible. The blocking pattern is progged to break down by
mid next week with the upper low across the West Coast kicking the
upper ridge eastward. This is followed by a dry Pacific front
Wednesday

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...58
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...55