Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 121111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
611 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Surface winds will start off light this morning but will increase to
15-20 mph out of the south by late morning as a LLJ works its way to
the surface after sunrise. Winds will also be aided by a lee surface
low over Colorado. The upper ridge currently over the Four Corners
region will move overhead by this afternoon and, along with strong
southerly surface winds, will allow highs to warm into the low to
mid 80s, roughly 10 degrees over yesterday`s highs. While winds will
decrease to around 5 to 10 mph overnight, they will remain out of
the south and up enough to help keep overnight lows mild.


(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Mid/upper level ridging overhead through the weekend in combination
with persistent south to southwest low level flow will result in
very warm temperatures across the forecast area, peaking on Sunday
when temperatures push above 90 degrees off the Caprock and well
into the 80s on it. The pattern becomes more active on Monday as a
mid/upper level low moves from the UT/AZ on Monday morning to the
CO/NM Rockies end of day. This evolution will drive a dry line
eastward into the forecast area on Monday afternoon with good low
level moisture transport ahead of the low and dryline with surface
dew points progged to push toward 60F across the Rolling Plains.
Convective initiation still looks likely along the dryline mid to
late afternoon with mid level support from a mid level jet streak
ejecting out of the base of the mid level low over CO. To the west
of the dryline where mid level winds will mix to the surface
advisory level wind speeds will be possible, especially for areas
near the NM state line. Following the ejection of this mid/upper low
a broad upper trough is progged to take shape from the Pacific
northwest to the western Great Lakes. Nearly zonal mid level flow to
the south of this broad trough will result in a continuation of warm
temperatures while daytime winds will remain breezy Tuesday and
Wednesday followed by a cold front into or through the forecast area
on Friday.


(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail. Wind shear is expected at PVW and LBB
through late morning. Wind shear will return to all terminals
around midnight tonight.




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