433
FXUS64 KLUB 211812
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
112 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this
   afternoon and evening across the Caprock, some storms may
   become severe.

 - Warmer Friday with another chance for scattered thunderstorms,
   some storms may become severe.

 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this
   weekend into next week, with temperatures remaining near
   average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Water vapor imagery this afternoon currently displays long wave
troughing encompassing much of the western CONUS as a
shortwave/perturbation ripples through the main flow just south and
west of the area. Given latest trends and the fact that thick
stratus continues to keep much of the areas along and east of the I-27
corridor socked in with low-clouds this afternoon. Meanwhile west of
the interstate, we are beginning to see the clearing of low-stratus
which is aiding in a quick warm-up in temperatures across this
area. With highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across areas with sunny
skies, while elsewhere highs remain stuck in the upper 50s to low
60s. As a result, it is likely that most areas off the Caprock will
see a decrease in precipitation chances due to the overworked
environment, with lingering precipitation ongoing, and lack of
instability expected as cloud cover keeps much of this area capped.
However, further west models are still holding on to an organized
convective system congealing linearly by the late evening,
developing near the TX/NM border. Given recent clearing, it is
likely convective T`s will be reached across the aforementioned area
and with MLCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and bulk shear magnitudes
around 30 knots, it is possible storms that are able to develop in
this environment could become marginally severe. Main threats would
be quarter sized hail and strong winds up to 70 mph possible.
Additionally, moisture remain rich across much of the area with
dewpoints in the 50s and 60s across both Caprock regions. Given this
and forecasted PWATs around an inch, in addition to long skinny CAPE
profiles, it is possible heavy downpours could occur with stronger
storm cores which may lead to a localized flooding threat across the
area. Although  not as likely, some models like the RRFS and FV3
keep this line of storms moving into the Rolling Plains through the
late evening. However, this forecaster is not too keen on this
scenario given latest environmental trends. However, IF storms are
able to develop within the cooler airmass there will still be a
threat for elevated hailers with pea to nickel size hail serving as
the main threat.

Precipitation should clear from after midnight with low stratus
filling in across much of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle into
portions of the northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Expect
lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s across much of the region and
light southerly winds prevail. By Friday mid-morning, low stratus
should begin to clear the region with highs expected to climb into
the mid to upper 80s as we see increased heights and thickness
values. A strengthening surface low over eastern New Mexico,
combined with a stronger perturbation translating through the
southwest flow aloft, will support the potential for thunderstorms
development near the TX/NM state line by Friday afternoon. Rich low-
level moisture with dew points progged in the 50s and 60s, east of a
sharpening dryline across the area, combined with convective Ts
being maintained by early afternoon will likely result in scattered
thunderstorm development along the line of low-level convergence.
Initial threats with storms will be the potential for quarter sized
hail, heavy rainfall, and strong winds up to 60 mph. Most CAMs have
storms becoming organized into a linear mode as they progress
eastward through Friday evening. If this happens, this will likely
switch the severe threat to more of a wind threat where we could
potentially see severe wind gusts up to 70 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

By Saturday, flow aloft will begin to weaken as mean mid/upper level
troughing shifts eastward and a weak ridge attempts to build over
the desert SW. Although models are in poor agreement regarding the
day-to-day specifics of the upper level flow over our area,
consensus does still favor plenty moisture remaining in place. This
combined with continuing weak southeasterly surface flow is likely
to support at least a few isolated showers and storms over West TX
on both Saturday and Sunday. There could be a few weak disturbances
cresting the ridge aloft which may increase convective coverage
especially on Saturday into Saturday night, but the probability of
any type of organized severe convection appears low at this time
given the weak flow aloft. On Monday, the weak upper ridge to our
west will quickly flatten as a series of shortwave troughs moves
over the western CONUS. Flow aloft over our area will consequently
strengthen and turn more southwesterly through the early week
period, with total column moisture progged to remain relatively
robust as well. This setup will favor a continuation of daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms especially as weak surface
upslope flow continues as well. Model consensus generally favors
Tuesday and Tuesday night as the period with the most widespread
precipitation coinciding with a shortwave trough axis moving
overhead, with storm chances shifting eastward through the rest of
the week. This pattern will also keep temperatures near seasonal
averages throughout the extended with highs generally in the 80s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

LIFR to IFR CIGs will continue at KLBB through the early afternoon
before we see improvements back to MVFR to potential VFR CIGs by
late afternoon. Models have diverged quite a bit since the 12Z TAF
cycle, leading to a very uncertain precipitation forecast for
this evening. By the looks of it, confidence is highest at KLBB
and KPVW for -TSRA by the early evening (~00z to 04z) which would
potentially bring the hazards for gusty winds up to 50 knots and
quarter sized hail. Although confidence is rather low in that for
any mention on the TAF. Meanwhile at KCDS, a drier scenario looks
to be panning out, although confidence in PoPs remains low,
confidence is increasing for IFR to MVFR CIGs developing at the
terminal just after midnight and lasting through daybreak.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12