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000
FXUS64 KLUB 082316
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR expected for the next 24 hours. Strong winds at all terminals will
continue until sunset. BLDU continues to be an issue at KLBB, but
will also dissipate after sunset. A dry cold front is expected to
push through the region around midnight with a wind shift to the
north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021/

UPDATE...
Wind speeds have begun to reach advisory levels on the Caprock and
southwestern Texas Panhandle. Have gone ahead and issued a wind
advisory for the aforementioned areas through 8 PM CDT. Winds will
bring blowing dust and the possibility of reduced visibilities
where dust is thicker. Winds will begin to decrease around sunset
ahead of a cold front expected to move south through the area
after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected today as we remain under
the influence of the subtropical jet in a hybrid split flow regime
whereby the polar and subtropical jets converge over the central
and southern plains. The H5 wind max which has helped contribute
to our winds today will slowly move east overnight while speeds
pick up to our north as the polar jet max approaches. Prospects
for precipitation out east continue to look mighty slim as a
capping inversion persists up around 15kft just above a layer of
thin moisture. A cold front is expected to move in around midnight
clearing the CWFA before sunrise on Sunday morning. Thanks to the
zonal flow, return flow will set up quite rapidly; Southerly
winds are expected in our west by late Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM...
An upper-level shortwave trough will move through the Texas
Panhandle and is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to our
north late Sunday into early Monday. This activity will potentially
move as far south as the extreme southern Panhandle. As the
shortwave moves to the east and the next approaches, moist
isentropic upglide will increase, increasing low-level cloud cover
over the area and could bring the potential for drizzle. Drizzle, if
any occurs, should start to taper off by early afternoon on Monday
as lift decreases. With cloud cover for much of the day, high
temperatures are only expected to rise into the 60s and low 70s.

An upper-level trough will settle into the Rockies late Monday and a
few shortwaves will move through the area before the main trough
emerges into Plains. Ahead of the main trough, southeasterly surface
winds will advect moisture into the area. As the shortwaves move
through, they will bring the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. With CAPE values of only a few hundred J/kg, the
chances of anything significant with these thunderstorms are pretty
low. The axis of the main trough will move east of the area late
Wednesday, bringing an end to precipitation chances. An upper-level
ridge will begin to build over as the trough exits, which will allow
for a warm-up going into the latter part of the week. The ridge will
begin to flatten on Friday as an upper trough moves into the
northwestern CONUS. There are still some indications that a few
shortwave troughs will ride around the ridge and through the area
late Friday going into the weekend. This will bring multiple chances
of showers and thunderstorms from Friday through Sunday.
Gkendrick

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

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