Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 190530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Other than some borderline LLWS, decent night-flying ahead with
VFR conditions ahead.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 235 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

Temperatures have warmed up quickly today with 2 pm readings
around 95-100F at most locations per the West Texas Mesonet.
Satellite imagery at 2 pm also shows some increasing cloud cover
in east-central NM within zone of weak surface convergence and
mid-lvl shear/modest moist axis. It`s not out of the question
that a shower or t-storm may sneak across the state line into the
western South Plains this evening. Otherwise, we are expecting
much the same conditions (hot, mainly dry) to persist Friday and
Saturday as the upper-level ridge continues to broaden across the
southern CONUS. We may be a couple of degrees warmer Friday and
Saturday afternoons with temps nearing 105F in the northern
Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle.

Saturday into Sunday, a vigorous shortwave passing through the
northern plains will send a cold front south toward our area.
Depending on the extent of convection and cold pool development
along the front, we may see an initial outflow boundary push into
our area as early as Sunday morning. We should see an increase in
showers and t-storms chances late Sunday into Monday with the
upper ridge retreating west as the upper trough moves through the
plains. The exact areas and times of the best rain chances will
be tied to progression of the outflow boundary and following
front, so it`s too early to pin down these at this point.
Markedly cooler temperatures do seem a good bet Monday and
Tuesday with highs likely only in the 80s for most of the area
both days (and possibly some highs only in the 70s if we see any
extended showers/cloud cover Monday). Warmer and drier conditions
are expected to return by midweek as the upper-high builds over
the southern Rockies, however a possible inverted trough
developing across south/southwest Texas may keep our temperatures
from rising quickly.




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