Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 290724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
224 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2022

Light northerly mid-level flow on the eastern periphery of a
subtropical high traversing the Four Corners will cause the deeper
moisture that has been residing over the CWA to shift to our south
and southwest. This is already evident in the early morning water
vapor imagery, as much drier air is advancing southward through the
Panhandles and much of Oklahoma as of 07Z. This subtle pattern shift
will favor warmer and drier conditions for the South Plains region
in comparison to the past couple of days. There may still be just
enough low-level moisture that we can`t completely rule out a rogue
afternoon shower/storm on the Caprock when strong heating erodes
much of the CIN. However, a slight speed bump progged to exist
immediately above the well-mixed boundary layer in combination with
the drying aloft will greatly limit rain/storm chances later today.
Hence, we have maintained a dry forecast, with PoPs peaking near 10%
across our southwestern zones. Highs will edge up a few degree from
yesterday at most spots, generally reaching the lower 90s. A quiet
and seasonably mild night will follow tonight.

Not much has changed with the extended forecast. Upper ridging will
be the dominate feature across the region tomorrow through next
week. One big chance in the models is in regards to the potential
tropical system off the coast of Texas. Models keep it much weaker
as it develops just of the coast and dissipate it quickly as it
moves onshore. The remnants do eventually make it to central
Oklahoma, but the only thing left of the system by then is its
moisture plume. This would weaken or all together do away with the
originally forecasted/expected subsidence on the west (West Texas)
side of the system. That does not, however, mean that precip chances
are better than before as, outside of a few pop-up showers and
thunderstorms, the forecast remains dry. Some relief from dry
conditions looks possible by the weekend as the upper high pushes
just to our east. Upper troughing across the western CONUS may allow
for some monsoonal moisture to work its way eastward. The upper high
is progged to move back over the region mid next week before pushing
westward towards the Four Corners region. The upper high currently
looks to be fare enough north and west to allow for continued
diurnal rain chances going into late next week.




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