Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 101317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
817 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Last evenings weak impulse was generating a new round of isolated
showers and possibly thunderstorms from the far eastern South
Plains into the Rolling Plains. Quick update to add a mention of
morning shower activity this area. RMcQueen


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

Only aviation concern, other than the afternoon heat (check
density altitude), is on possible storm impacts at the terminals
this evening. Isolated high-based convection will move east and
southeastward across the South Plains this evening. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds will accompany this activity, though odds of
a direct storm impact at a terminal is too low for inclusion in
the TAFs at this time. Outside of storm influences, southerly
winds will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

The overall pattern won`t change much from yesterday, meaning
another hot afternoon with isolated to widely scattered late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

A decaying area of convection that moved into the western South
Plains last night did leave a MCV spinning over the central South
Plains as of 0730Z. A few light showers/sprinkles continue to
persist near the MCV as well as across the southwest Texas
Panhandle, though this is not expected to have any real
ramifications later today. Instead, the upper ridge that is
controlling our weather will become centered near El Paso through
the day today, resulting in weak northwesterly flow developing over
West Texas. A subtle disturbance currently traversing the San Juan
Mountains of Colorado will translate slowly eastward, emerging
across the High Plains around peak heating. This disturbance may
provide a little boost to convective development this afternoon,
though it looks like its forcing will largely reside to our north.
Even so, at least isolated high-based convection should develop
along a surface trough somewhere near the TX/NM line this
afternoon...after 20 or 21Z. Overall, NWP has trended less
aggressive regarding late day storm coverage locally, though at
least isolated (perhaps scattered) storms that form near/over our
western counties will propagate east and southeastward through the
evening hours. Although the bulk of this activity should diminish by
late evening, a modest southerly LLJ could keep some going into the
late night hours, with the southeast Texas Panhandle and northern
Rolling Plains favored by the recent NWP.

Regarding storm intensity, SBCAPE values around 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear of 20-30 knots would favor a few robust multicell updrafts
late this afternoon, capable of generating marginally severe hail.
However, strong to severe downbursts will be the greater concern as
any substantial precipitation core descends into a hot and deeply
mixed boundary layer (characterized by DCAPE values around 1500

Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the upper 90s and lower
triple digits again, followed by another mild/warm night.

The amplified ridging pattern will persist from midweek on through
the forecast period, though the center will migrate farther west
by the end of the week and possibly produce a slightly cooler
pattern for the end of the weekend with stronger northwest flow
setting in.

Before that we`ll see storm chances, similar to the last few days,
develop in eastern New Mexico and spread west into the South
Plains and southern Texas Panhandle Tuesday evening, tapering off
by midnight. By Wednesday afternoon the ridge to the west will
strengthen while an upper level trough over the central CONUS
will produce a weak boundary just strong enough for southwest
surface wind fields the second half of the week. Increasing H50
heights and southwest surface winds will push daily highs back
toward triple digits for most of us through at least Saturday,
when northwest flow sets in.




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