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000
FXUS64 KLUB 232334
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
634 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are in place this evening at all three terminals.
Another round of IFR ceilings are expected to develop at KCDS
overnight. IFR due to fog is also possible at KPVW and KLBB early
Monday morning. Fog development could create conditions below
mins. Moderate confidence on timing of VFR conditions Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper trough will move across a good portion of North
America this week which will create some impactful weather for a
brief period this week.

This system will initially send a cold front through the area on
Tuesday. Models are in good agreement now with a daytime passage
on the timing of the front. This may allow the southern South
Plains and southern Rolling Plains to reach up into the lower 90s
before the frontal passage with much cooler temperatures in the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Strong pressure rises Tuesday
afternoon and evening will bring stout winds on the order of 20kt
or so. The southern branch of the upper level jet and weaker of
the two jets will be increasing overhead on Tuesday into Wednesday
morning. Overall, the omega profile is not that impressive and
precipitation amounts depicted in model guidance continues to look
suspect given the weak lift present. Therefore, we will continue
to forecast less precipitation than what the models are
indicating. The best lift actually looks to be some isentropic
lift situated in a dry layer above the low level moist air. This
short wave will have to bring its own mid and upper level moisture
with virtually none in the zonal flow in advance of the short
wave. Drier surface air will be filtering into the area on
Wednesday which may further limit precipitation potential. With
the expected cold front and resultant cloud cover, Wednesday will
be a very cool day with temperatures only in the 60s.

This upper level trough axis will pass overhead on Wednesday
evening quickly drying out what moisture there will be present in
the atmosphere. Another cold front will attempt to move south but
looks to stop well short of the South Plains on Thursday. A
pronounced weakness in the heights aloft will then follow for the
rest of the week. A trough moving over the Rockies this weekend
will bring more of a spring time like pattern. Surface lee
troughing will bring gusty southerly winds and an increase in low
level moisture along with another cold front around Monday of next
week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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