971
FXUS64 KLUB 081117
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

As of 2 AM CDT, a shallow surface cold front is across the
central Texas Panhandle and is expected to continue to push
southward through the forecast area this morning. Winds will turn
to the north following the frontal boundary with very weak CAA and
low temperatures this morning remaining near normal in the upper
40s to 50s. The upper closed low continues to wobble over the
Northern Plains today with another vort lobe ejecting around the
southern periphery of the low. Surface lee cyclogenesis will
develop across northeast New Mexico with winds backing to the west
this afternoon along the Caprock and remaining light and variable
mostly off the Caprock. Despite the weak frontal passage tonight,
sunny skies and the return of downsloping winds will give way to
temperatures remaining above normal today in the 80s. As the
surface low drops southward into the Permian Basin, another
shallow cold front will push south across the forecast area late
tonight. Once again, CAA behind the front will be weak with lows
tonight in the upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A rex-like blocking pattern will develop over the western CONUS for
the second half of this week. A more progressive pattern of short
wave troughs from the Great Lakes into the eastern US will promote
surface ridging being reinforced into West Texas during this period.
This will keep temperatures on the cool side of seasonal averages
under generally low level easterly flow. The aforementioned rex
block will break down and flatten out late this week with short wave
troughing moving overhead Friday into early Saturday. As the trough
progresses closer to the region on Saturday, there does not appear
to be any substantial broad large scale lift ahead of this trough.
However, models do depict weaker smaller scale short waves moving
through the southwest flow aloft. Low level flow will turn more
southeasterly on Saturday in advance of the now western US trough
slowly moving eastward from the Great Basin into the Intermountain
West. The southeasterly low level flow will be able to advect low
level moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico. A low level
theta-e ridge will set up near the Texas/New Mexico state line. The
cool southeasterly low level flow pattern will only bring in modest
amounts of instability and therefore little to no chances of severe
weather. Models then differ quite a bit after Saturday on whether
this trough will eject out onto the Plains or become a slow moving
trough meandering around the southwestern US through early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR is expected through the TAF period. A cold front this morning
shifting winds to the northwest will move back north this
afternoon allowing winds to increase more out of the west. This
front will again push through the area this evening shifting winds
back to the northeast.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01