183
FXUS64 KLUB 142246
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
546 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Widely isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across the
southwestern Texas Panhandle over the past several hours, with this
area being behind the dryline. Models are mixed with continue
development this afternoon and early evening. As there is already
convection in the region, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
kept in the forecast. Any thunderstorm that develops should be weak
given high bases and low tops, but gusty winds will still be
possible. Upper ridging will continue to remain overhead through at
least late tomorrow morning. An upper low off the coast of British
Columbia will quickly move southward into the Pacific Northwest
tonight and will deepen slightly. This will help to somewhat erode
the overhead ridge. Models have convection developing across Arizona
and New Mexico as the upper low digs southward, but this convection
should remain west and north of the FA tomorrow. Tomorrow will be
another warm day thanks to the overhead ridge with highs, though
slightly cooler than today, reaching into the mid/upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Unsettled weather and slightly cooler (though still above
average) temperatures will prevail throughout much of the extended
forecast as broad troughing takes up residence over the western
CONUS. Jet energy near the coast of the British Columbia this
afternoon will dig south-southeastward, carving out a mid-level
low over the Great Basin by Monday. Shortwave ridging in advance
of the low will traverse the southern High Plains to kick off the
new week, supporting generally dry conditions. This will change as
the upper ridge gives way to southwesterly flow aloft as the
western trough edges eastward and the initial closed low begins to
lift northeastward into the northern Rockies. The western trough
will quickly reload as additional jet energy provides another
Great Basin upper low around mid-week. Thereafter, the trough
should begin making slow, but steady, eastward progress through
late week into next weekend. Eventually, a modest cold front
should pass through the region as the trough axis approaches and
passes sometime next weekend.

Before then, the increased southwest flow aloft will induce pressure
falls in the lee of the Rockies, resulting in breezy southerly winds
locally by Tuesday, with the breezy conditions persisting through
much of the remainder of the week. In addition, the tightening
surface trough and dryline, in combination with an improving tap of
subtropical moisture, will spell increasing chances for deep,
moist convection locally. The best storm chances will first
develop near the TX/NM line Tuesday afternoon, spreading eastward
into the South Plains and the much of the southern Texas
Panhandle through Tuesday evening. Additional rounds of
thunderstorms will be possible the remainder of the week into next
weekend as the pattern is slow to evolve. Eventually rain chances
will wane as cooler and drier air invade the region when the
trough passes, though probably not until late next weekend.
Instability will not be overly high through the unsettled stretch,
but could be enough to support some storm organization and a few
strong/severe thunderstorms as deep layer shear increases from
pathetic levels to around 25-35+ knots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Thunderstorm activity has remained N and NW of all TAF sites.
Storms are generously creating outflow boundaries which bring wind
shifts, turbulence, and higher wind speeds at the surface.
Overall, the expectation is that the storms will diminish by
sunset...especially those NW and W of KLBB/KPVW. It`s a bit less
clear for KCDS as that complex seems to be in a slightly more
favorable environment. Downburst potential is high under/near all
precipitation areas and underflight is not recommended. Otherwise,
VFR outside of convective activity with breezy southerly winds
persisting until sunset...then becoming lighter with a modest
shear- zone just a few hundred feet above the surface.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26