Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 151104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
604 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019/

This week will see a return of a more progressive synoptic evolution
across the southern states.  While high pressure continues to
prevail across the southeastern states, an UL low across southern AZ
and the effects of a storm system coming ashore the PacNW will help
to initiate changes to our weather.  The cloud shield associated
with the AZ is well defined on satellite with mid level moist
advection through Chihuahua and NM. This system will eject
northeastward into an open trough across Colorado on Monday while
the high pressure center remains centered around AR and surrounding
states.  To the south, a tropical disturbance is expected to
approach the Texas coast before being drawn northward late in the
week.  The PacNW system will swing a couple of lobes of energy
through the Great Basin thence into the nrn plains yielding
increasingly southwesterly flow across West Texas.  There is
uncertainty as to the evolution of the western Gulf disturbance
though it appears it will attempt to phase with the approaching Pac
NW system late this week taking a curving trajectory to our east.

Today, we`ll see an increase in mid level cloudiness influenced by
Gulf moisture as well as upper level clouds from the Pacific
moisture drawn northward by the AZ low.  Dry conditions should
prevail today, Monday, and (for most of us) Tuesday.  We should see
some storms fire across NE NM late Tuesday afternoon and evening and
some of them may cross the state line into our NWRN zones.  This
sequence should repeat Wednesday evening possibly becoming a bit
more widespread Thursday through Saturday with increasing chances
the further NW one travels in our CWA.  A cold front appears
possible late next weekend.  Temps continue to run about 5 degrees
above normal.




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