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000
FXUS64 KLUB 182315
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR prevails for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and
variable tonight through late tomorrow morning at KCDS, KLBB, and
KPVW, with winds shifting to the southwest and becoming breezy by
Monday afternoon. The potential exists for light to moderate
thermal turbulence from the surface to 10 kft MSL tomorrow
afternoon at all terminals as well. A strong cold front is
forecast to surge southward through the region Tuesday morning.

Sincavage

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021/

SHORT TERM...
After a cool/chilly start to the day (by mid-April standards),
plenty of sunshine has allowed 1830Z temperatures to rebound into
the 50s and lower 60s. Expect temperatures to peak in the 60s area
wide later this afternoon, including middle to upper 60s in the
Rolling Plains. Mostly clear skies and light winds will follow
tonight as weak surface ridging sags to our south and we are
positioned between a shortwave trough traversing the mid-Mississippi
River Valley and one sinking from Arizona and California into
northern Sonora. Although 850 mb temperatures will be about 7-8
degrees Celsius warmer than this morning, excellent radiational
cooling conditions will allow for the development of a shallow/sharp
temperature inversion. Hence, lows will again fall into the 30s
across most of the CWA, with temperatures near or even slightly
below freezing possible across the southwest Texas Panhandle and
northwestern/western South Plains (where subfreezing conditions
occurred this morning). Given this, we will continue to advertise
the possible of near/below freezing temperatures for spots on the
Caprock in a Special Weather Statement, with an emphasis on our
northwestern zones.

The Sonoran system will weaken and translate eastward on Monday,
emerging over the Big Bend late in the day. This wave will be too
far south to have much influence on our weather other than to
provide a few passing high clouds. Much further north, a more
significant trough will pivot southward out of Canada with an
embedded shortwave diving out of British Columbia tonight and into
central Rockies by late Monday. A strong cold front will accompany
this system, plowing through the South Plains tomorrow night.
However, in advance of the system, a lee side surface low will
deepen across southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico, providing
breezy southwesterly winds locally Monday afternoon. The breezy and
dry downslope winds, in combination with near full insolation, will
provide a nice, albeit short-lived, warm up. Highs Monday will
reach the lower to middle 70s for the entire FA.

LONG TERM...
An upper trough will push a cold front southward across the central
CONUS early Tuesday with the front expected to be through the FA by
sunrise Tuesday. Models continue to speed up timing of the fropa and
likewise continue to diminish precip chances Tuesday. Winds
immediately behind the front will likely be in/near advisory
criteria given the decent pressure rises behind the front. We should
see winds decrease through the afternoon becoming east to
northeasterly at less than 15 mph by sunset. A freeze continues to
look likely for areas on the Caprock Wednesday morning. How hard of
a freeze depends on how far west the surface high settles before
sunrise. Currently the surface high is expected to remain just to
our east allowing reduced radiational cooling. We could likely see a
Freeze Watch for portions of the FA in the coming day or so as much
of the FA has moved past the last average freeze date. The exception
would be our far northwestern zones where lows in the mid 20s will
be possible. Overall Wednesday should be a nice day with light
easterly winds and highs in the upper 50s/low 60s.

There continues to be uncertainty with the evolution of an upper
trough/low that is expected to move across the southwestern US by
Thursday. The ECMWF continues to keep the system as a progressive
open wave trough. While there is still dryline activity forecasted
by the ECMWF it is mostly to the east of the FA though it does hint
as some activity across the Rolling Plains. The GFS has the system
as a closed low that moves across northern Mexico by early Saturday.
The GFS solution allows for dryline activity possibly as far west as
the Texas/New Mexico state line by Thursday afternoon. For now the
official forecast will remain dry with convective chances staying
just to the east.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

09