Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
913 FXUS64 KLUB 031119 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 619 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Shower and thunderstorms chances and below normal temperatures continue through this evening. - Near zero precipitation chances Friday however will return Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. - Warmer and dryer conditions next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Rainfall chances, mostly cloudy skies, and below normal temperatures continue today. Overall, not much change to the upper level patterns. The mid-level trough will persist over our region today and an upper-level inverted deamplifying trough over the Desert Southwest will track over the region by tonight as a secondary trough pushes onshore over the Pacific Northwest. The southwesterly flow aloft maintains moisture overhead with PWATs around 1.75 inches. Southerly surface flow will keep the dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s. With the abundance of moisture, shower chances are expected to persist through today with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms late afternoon through evening once we have reached peak heating. Forcing will be weak, therefore any thunderstorms that do develop will be sub-severe. By this evening and overnight, shower and thunderstorms chances will shift to east of the I-27 corridor. Below normal temperatures continue today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers should continue through Friday morning and early afternoon along and east of the I-27 corridor, but we will finally get a break from rainfall by Friday afternoon as subsidence takes over and the upper moisture plume should move away from the region. However, the break doesn`t last long as shower chances return late Saturday afternoon as an upper high builds over southern portions of Arizona and New Mexico, filling moisture back in over the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances should continue through Sunday night. Models are in disagreement with the upper pattern following the weekend. ECMWF indicates the upper high expands eastward over our region as a trough builds off the shore of the Pacific Northwest. GFS indicates the high will remain stagnant over the Four Corners region as an upper low builds off the shore of northern California. Either set up looks to keep near zero pops for the region next week except for western portions of the Far Southern Texas Panhandle Monday and Tuesday evening. Cooler temperatures in the 70s and 80s will be a thing of the past as temperatures gradually warm back into the 90s by Friday and continue through next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Occasional rain showers will continue through the rest of today and likely into early Friday morning at all TAF sites. This will bring IFR CIGS to the area this morning. CIGS are then expected to rise to MVFR this afternoon with scattered rain showers continuing. Isolated thunder will also be possible within the rain shower activity. Flight conditions may return to IFR early Friday morning but is uncertain at the moment. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....10 AVIATION...01