Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
210 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

At mid-afternoon the dryline has pushed eastward to near a
Clairemont to Floydada to Vigo Park line. This air mass is likely
to remain capped, although a cumulus field is expanding over the
dry air to the west and northwest of Lubbock. If this growth
becomes more vigorous there could be a few high-based showers
develop before evening. Afterwards, support looks minimal and will
favor a dry forecast. The dryline will retreat westward tonight
then push to the east again tomorrow. Tomorrow`s punch should be
focused more across the northern counties as flow aloft backs to
southwest. Another hot day is expected with highs approaching and
at times exceeding 100 degrees. When combined with cooler
temperatures aloft than today chances for thunderstorms late
afternoon and evening increases with 20-30 percent PoPs east of
the dryline looking fine.

Small thunderstorm chances for the weekend will focus across the
east as well as an upper level short wave trough moves from the
Great Basin Friday evening to Nebraska and Kansas Sunday evening.
This will help keep the dryline sloshing back and forth across the
forecast area. However, with the falling heights and thicknesses
associated with the upper trough in addition to some backing of
low level flow toward the south and southwest temperatures are not
expected to be as high Saturday and Sunday as today and tomorrow.

The latter parts of the forecast will be driven by progged upper
level ridging. Models are coming into some agreement with building
a ridge initially over Texas, shifting westward with time. There
is no strong signal for precipitation during the Monday through
Thursday period. Models may be underplaying temperatures some
given the expected evolution of heights and thicknesses, but for
now will run with model blend for both temperatures and
precipitation chances.




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