Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

06Z upper air analysis depicts an occluding cyclone over the
northern Great Plains and a subtropical ridge that was slowly
retrograding westward over the Sea of Cortez. The cold front
associated with the occluding cyclone has crossed through the CWA,
delineated along a line from HOB-GNC-LUV-SNK before bending
northeastward into the Big Country and towards SPS as per regional
METAR and West Texas Mesonet data. The movement of the front
continues to slow as it moves beneath an increasingly barotropic
airmass beneath the expansive subtropical ridge that was analyzed at
595 dam on the 24/00Z objectively analyzed maps last evening. Weak,
CAA is occurring post-FROPA and will continue throughout the rest of
the day area-wide with an anemic, northeasterly fetch. Temperatures
today will be approximately 10 degrees cooler than yesterday across
the entire CWA, with the coolest temperatures across the extreme
southwestern TX PH. The heavily modified post-frontal airmass will
shunt the vertical depth of the boundary-layer today, with mixing
heights ascending to near 1.5-2-km AGL on the Caprock and 1-1.5-km
AGL in the Rolling Plains. Despite the weak, northeasterly fetch;
and the rapidly decreasing SZA, temperatures will still be very warm
today. However, even cooler temperatures are expected tonight as the
northeasterly fetch remains intact amidst a clear sky, maximizing
radiative cooling effects by early Monday morning. Low temperatures
were manually lowered by a few degrees from the blended guidance
across the northwestern zones (e.g., Friona and Muleshoe vicinity)
where terrain-induced drainages enhance radiative cooling.



(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Northwest flow aloft will continue over the area Monday with a
closed low tracking eastward over the Midwest and an upper level
high positioned over Mexico. The upper level pattern is expected to
remain in place through the end of the work week with subsidence
continuing overhead as the upper level high slowly tracks eastward
through the week leading to warmer temperatures in the 80s on the
Caprock and low 90s off the Caprock. Precipitation chances this week
look to be minimal with the best chance being Tuesday as a subtle
disturbance in the flow aloft tracks southeastward through the FA.
Upslope surface flow will help initiate convection along the higher
terrain in eastern New Mexico and in combination with northwest flow
aloft will push storms southeastward into the FA.

Models are in agreement with the amplification of the upper level
ridge to our east into the weekend. Additionally, ensembles are in
agreement with the upper level low to our northwest tracking
eastward across the Great Basin this weekend. However, there remains
disagreement on the amplitude, timing, and progression of the trough
at this time. Therefore this pattern could raise the potential for
dryline convection across the FA, with ensemble QPF portraying this
output. However, with the varying differences in guidance we will
continue to reflect the NBM blends due to low confidence this far


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period, although some
patches of stratus may affect the area around sunrise Monday.




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