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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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869 FXUS64 KLZK 261846 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 146 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 H500 low will continue to slowly rotate its way toward the N/NE through the short term between ridges of high pressure to the west and southeast of the region. This will provide continued chances for showers and thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures. While readings may be below normal, it still feels quite uncomfortable outside as Td values are largely in the 70s F. No major severe/hazardous weather concerns other than the possibility of localized heavy rainfall. Observed and forecast PW values of 1.50"-2.00" will remain over the area through Saturday with relatively slow storm motion. While confidence isn`t overly high in a specific corridor of heavy rainfall, daytime CAM runs have been hinting at an area from west central to central parts of the state where a few inches of rain could fall. && .Long Term... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 To begin the period, an upper level trough will be over the Central Plains, pushing into the Great Lakes region. At the same time, H500 high pressure looks to be over the Southwest U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico. This high pressure system will gradually slide over the state as we move through the long term period. With that said, moisture associated with the trough will hang around through Tuesday brining additional chances for pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially across northern and eastern locations. As the pattern changes going into the middle of next week, hot and dry conditions are expected to move in as high pressure begins to take control of the weather pattern. Above average temperatures will be expected as hot and humid conditions returning to the Natural State. As mentioned above, hot and humid conditions will be returning to the Natural State by the middle of next week. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings will likely be needed. Forecast high temperatures are expected to get into the upper 80s to near 100 degrees with heat index values between 100 to 115 in places. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be seen across the state through the period which will lead to occasional impacts at area terminals. Mixed bag of cigs across the area this afternoon with most terminals expected to fall to MVFR or lower tonight through Saturday morning. Winds will be out of the S-SE at less than 10 kts with some variation in direction likely at times. Some FG development is possible overnight into early Saturday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 70 82 70 86 / 40 70 40 60 Camden AR 70 83 70 88 / 60 60 20 50 Harrison AR 68 80 67 86 / 20 70 30 30 Hot Springs AR 70 84 71 89 / 70 70 20 50 Little Rock AR 72 83 73 89 / 60 70 40 50 Monticello AR 72 84 72 88 / 60 70 30 60 Mount Ida AR 69 83 69 87 / 60 70 20 50 Mountain Home AR 70 80 68 86 / 30 70 40 40 Newport AR 72 82 71 86 / 40 70 40 60 Pine Bluff AR 71 83 71 87 / 60 60 30 50 Russellville AR 71 83 71 88 / 60 70 30 40 Searcy AR 71 82 70 87 / 50 70 40 60 Stuttgart AR 72 82 72 86 / 60 70 40 50 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...67