Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 300557 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1257 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2022


Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...



Expect primarily VFR conditions to persist through this TAF
period. Some convection may be seen across central and SERN
sections of the area Thu afternoon as moisture lifts north.



SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Friday


A stationary front remains parked along the Deep South, extending
across southern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and
the Carolinas. This stationary boundary will keep rain and
thunderstorm chances well south of the Natural State and reserved to
the Gulf Coast States of the CONUS. As a result, we continue to
enjoy dew point temperatures in the 50`s to mid 60`s across the
state, providing a much drier airmass than last week. Fair and dry
weather prevails for the remainder of Wednesday and tonight.


Thursday morning will begin w/ morning low temperatures hovering
around near normal values for this time of the year (upper 60`s to
low 70`s across the central/southern portion of the state) w/ the
exception being the northern tier of the state where low
temperatures will be slightly lower than normal for this time of the
year (upper 50`s to mid 60`s). The stationary front will lift
throughout the day on Thursday becoming a warm front and moving into
the southern and eastern portions of the Natural State by Thursday
afternoon/Thursday evening. The tandem of daytime heating and the
movement of the boundary will increase the chances of isolated
showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening across
southern and eastern Arkansas. Another noticeable trait on Thursday,
will be a return to surface winds dominantly  out of the south
which will slightly increase our dew point temperatures into the
low to mid 70`s across central and southern Arkansas. In response,
heat index values Thursday afternoon will make their way into the
middle to upper 90`s along and south of the I-40 corridor; these
values are still below heat advisory criteria, but the
modification of the airmass w/ increasing moisture is to be noted
for Thursday.


Friday will present an almost carbon copy forecast to Thursday.
Temperatures w/ respect to both morning low and afternoon high
temperatures will be near normal values for this time of the year.
The only significant change will be the increasing of rain chances
over a greater area of the state, especially during Friday
afternoon/Friday evening as the warm front inches northward across
the state, in tandem w/ daytime heating, and an approaching area of
weak low pressure will coerce the potential for increased
rain/thunderstorm chances over a significant portion of the state. A
greater chance of statewide isolated shower/thunderstorm chances
will be expected looking into the weekend and beginning of the long-
term forecast w/ an east-west oriented frontal boundary on approach
to the Natural state from the north.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

Compressed H500 ridging will be in place across the southern US at
the start of the period with a very moist airmass in place at the
sfc. Sfc high pressure will continue to remain positioned off the
East Coast.

Remnants from an area of low pressure will be moving inland from the
NW Gulf and a cold front will approach the state from the north.
With a moist airmass in place and these sfc features in close
proximity to the state, diurnal heating will help fuel isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.
Unfortunately, trends with 12z data continue to indicate
underwhelming rainfall totals and coverage through the period
across the state. There will be exceptions to this, but expect
these to be limited in nature and possible more likely across S

Rain chances will diminish as mid-level ridging intensifies and
expands across the middle of the country next week. Daytime highs
will creep back up into the mid/upper 90s and when combined with Td
values > 70 F, heat indices will likely exceed heat advisory


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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