Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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158
FXUS64 KLZK 292257 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
557 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Latest regional radar data indicate scattered light returns,
partially aloft, across mainly southwest sections of the state. A
few stronger returns were noted, approaching from eastern
Oklahoma. All of the mentioned activity appear to be supported by
a MCV, approaching from eastern Oklahoma.

The MCV will continue eastward for at least several more hours,
before dissipating. Western sections of the forecast area will be
monitored for any convective systems that may approach from the
plains.

Support for such convective systems will increase during the rest
of the forecast period. Several of these could affect the forecast
area. Forecasts will continue to reflect uncertainties with
regard to timing of these systems.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Relatively little has changed since the thinking yesterday.
A progressive upper level pattern will continue thru the extended
term. Arkansas will largely remain in a warm and moist airmass at
the surface, and aloft numerous shortwaves will move across the
area.

As a result, showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
for portions of the state thru the entire period. While the overall
trend for severe weather has been on the downswing, I am still a
little concerned about some of the afternoons where models have very
high levels of instability forecast with an approaching shortwave.

Like the models from yesterday, there is a trend toward ridging
developing to the west during the period just beyond the extended
term. This would put Arkansas at the eastern edge of the ridge. If
this comes to fruition, Arkansas will likely see a period of more
summer-like conditions, with very warm and humid weather and lower
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Some isolated to widely scattered convection will be possible
early this evening...but chances for precip should decrease
overnight. Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the Thu
afternoon. Some additional isolated afternoon convection may
develop on Thu...though more organized convection looks to develop
for WRN AR by midday before things become more uncertain in the
afternoon hrs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     62  80  63  79 /  10  10  20  50
Camden AR         65  82  65  81 /  20  30  30  70
Harrison AR       59  79  62  75 /  10  10  30  70
Hot Springs AR    64  81  65  80 /  20  30  40  70
Little Rock   AR  67  82  67  82 /  20  20  40  60
Monticello AR     67  82  67  85 /  20  30  30  50
Mount Ida AR      64  80  64  79 /  20  30  40  80
Mountain Home AR  60  79  62  76 /  10  10  20  60
Newport AR        63  81  65  82 /  10  10  20  40
Pine Bluff AR     66  82  67  83 /  20  20  30  60
Russellville AR   64  81  66  79 /  20  10  40  70
Searcy AR         63  81  64  80 /  20  10  30  50
Stuttgart AR      67  81  67  83 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...62