409
FXUS64 KLZK 131730
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

-Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun-
 Mon.

-Hot and humid conditions will become more widespread by mid-week
 with many areas expected to see heat indices of 100 to 105 at
 times.

-There will be continued chances for widespread rain and
 thunderstorms through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the
region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will
lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms
across the state today and again Monday. There will be some breaks
in precip at times, but several rounds of precip are expected
with the bulk of the activity influenced by daytime heating and
afternoon instability. Remnant boundaries and sfc features like
the MCV just to the west will help focus precip and may encourage
activity to persist into the overnight hours. Weak shear with PW
values in excess of 2 inches will contribute to some of these
storms producing very heavy rainfall.

With today and tomorrow`s increased coverage in precip and cloud
cover, temperatures may remain near to below normal across a good
chunk of the state. The areas most likely to see these reduced
temperatures include west and northern portions of the state.

Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as
the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and
SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state. This
will lead to a general increase in temperatures and limit precip
chances to isolated, diurnally driven activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The northern sites of KHRO and KBPK along with the central site of
KLIT will begin the period Sunday afternoon in MVFR flight category
for lowered CIGS. VCTS will be noted throughout the duration of a
large portion of the forecast period across all terminals as VCSH
and VCTS will become scattered across Arkansas over the forecast
period, especially from Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning
prior to sunrise. The terminal of KLIT will experience surface wind
gusts in excess of 19 knots for the first few hours of the forecast
period. All terminals will see an improvement of CIGS lift to VFR
flight category on Saturday evening before the northern terminals of
KHRO and KBPK lower to MVFR early Monday morning prior to sunrise.
After sunrise, later Monday morning, all flight category is expected
to become VFR across all sites in Arkansas. The terminal of KADF is
"AMD NOT SKED" for a lack of observation over the last several
hours, this discrepancy is being looked into.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     72  90  72  92 /  30  50  10  40
Camden AR         72  92  73  95 /  30  40  10  30
Harrison AR       68  84  69  87 /  20  40  20  40
Hot Springs AR    71  90  72  93 /  40  50  10  40
Little Rock   AR  75  91  75  94 /  30  50  10  30
Monticello AR     75  93  75  96 /  20  40  10  30
Mount Ida AR      70  88  71  90 /  50  60  20  40
Mountain Home AR  69  86  70  88 /  20  50  10  40
Newport AR        73  91  74  93 /  20  40  10  30
Pine Bluff AR     73  92  74  94 /  20  40  10  30
Russellville AR   71  88  72  91 /  40  50  20  40
Searcy AR         73  91  72  93 /  30  40  10  30
Stuttgart AR      75  91  75  93 /  30  40  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74