310
FXUS64 KLZK 120657
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
157 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

-Early this morning, a small window will exist for a frost and
possible freeze across north-central, northwestern, and portions of
west-central Arkansas

-An overall quiet weather pattern will be in place through Saturday
across the state

-A quick moving cold front will move across the state on Sunday
bringing rain a few possible thunderstorms to the state

-Early Monday and Tuesday mornings will both offer a better chance
for a widespread frost and freeze across most of the state of
Arkansas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

THURSDAY (TODAY)/FRIDAY/SATURDAY:

In the upper lvls, the H500 pattern will begin northwesterly over
Arkansas as a positively-tilted trof axis moves over the Great Lakes
region of the CONUS and is progged to move over the New England
region of the CONUS. The flow pattern over Arkansas by late week
will be nearly zonal over the state as the trof feature continues
well east of the region. At the sfc, in the wake of the cold front
which moved across the state during the day on Wednesday, tranquil
weather conditions will be noted over this period. The drier and
cooler airmass will be felt this morning as few locations across
northern and western Arkansas may experience a frost or even freeze
in a few locations. However, surface winds will shift across the
state today and become established out of the south to south-
southwest across the CWA which will assist in a warming trend for
temperatures going into Friday and Saturday.

SUNDAY:

In the upper lvls, a H500 trof begins to dig over the Central Plains
region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a warm front lifts northward into
Mid-West and Ohio River Valley regions of the CONUS with a sfc low
pressure center positioned in the vicinity of northeastern Kansas,
southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, and northwestern Missouri.
00Z guidance from multiple models in the medium-range have hinted at
the possibility of a broad warm sector opening over portions of
central and southern Arkansas with SBCAPE values between 1,000 and
1,500 J/kg and 0-3km bulk shear around 40 knots. However, the timing
of the cold front to the northwest of the state will be critical in
the potential for severe weather as models have fluctuated the past
few runs on timing. An afternoon/early evening event with the cold
front remaining off to the northwest would favor a possible severe
weather setup, but if the cold front moves through quicker than
anticipated, then instability, moisture, and a lifting mechanism
would be lowered significantly.

Additionally, the cold front will be quick moving with the
possibility of a light rain and snow mix which may be present across
parts of northern, central, and eastern Arkansas as the moisture is
able to be present for a few hours in wake of the cold front on
Sunday night into the early morning hours on Monday, but no
accumulations would be anticipated and this remains a low confidence
solution given the speed of the cold front.

MONDAY/TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY:

In the upper lvls, a pronounced upper level ridge will be noted over
the Southwestern region of the CONUS. In response over Arkansas,
northwesterly flow will once again be present. At the sfc, high
pressure moves into the region behind the cold front leading to a
period of quiet weather overall. The main story will be during the
early morning hours on both Monday and Tuesday morning when Freeze
and Frost products will likely be needed across a large portion of
the state as the air mass behind the steep cold front will bring a
shot of colder temperatures which will stick around on both Monday
and Tuesday before temperatures begin to improve overall to near
normal values on Wednesday. It is noted that any vegetation planted
or left outdoors will need to be protected or moved indoors (if
able) or will be likely be damaged or killed due to the cold
temperatures on both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect VFR flight category across all terminals over the forecast
period from early Thursday morning through early Friday morning. In
the wake of the cold front which moved across Arkansas during the
day on Wednesday, gusty surface winds in excess of 25 knots are
expected for the first several hours of the forecast period across
most TAF sites through Thursday evening. Low level wind shear will
be noted at the end of the forecast period on Thursday evening
through the end of the forecast period across the northern terminals
of KHRO and KBPK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     60  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         61  39  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       61  45  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    61  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  59  43  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     59  42  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      63  43  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  43  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        57  43  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     57  41  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   63  41  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         58  39  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      57  42  68  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74