Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 162337 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
537 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018


Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion.



VFR prevails early in the period before BR/FG develop overnight.
While BR is likely at all but northern terminals, the highest
probability of IFR or worse vis restrictions should reside at
KPBF/KLLQ. IFR possible elsewhere, but confidence is low attm, so
mentioned MVFR BR for now. After 17/14Z, VFR prevails area wide
with light NWly flow. BKN high clouds move in from the south late
in the period, but no restrictions expected.



.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 226 PM CST Sun Dec 16 2018)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

Satellite data and surface observations indicate mid and high level
clouds moving east over most of the forecast area. This cloud
cover is expected to diminish during the early evening hours.
With moist ground conditions, and a very light northeast near
surface flow, areas of fog are expected overnight. Will need to
monitor near term trends for the potential for headline issuance.

Pacific upper level energy now approaching Baja California will
continue to approach during this period, however the main effects
of this system will occur after this forecast period. Near to
slightly above normal temperatures are expected during this

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

At the start of the long term portion of the forecast, the flow
aloft will begin to turn out of the southwest with moisture
beginning to stream over the area as an H500 trough approaches from
the west. Clouds will increase and rain will spread across the state
Wednesday from southwest to northeast. There will be a limited
threat for thunderstorms, but only isolated TS wording will be
mentioned in this afternoon`s forecast package, mainly across the
southern half of the area.

Into Thursday, an additional trough will rapidly dive south from the
Northern Plains, intensify and close off near or just east of the
state. At the same time, a surface low will develop along with a
trailing cold front and move across the state. Given the rapid
decrease in pressure and the associated gradient with the surface
cyclone, windy conditions can be expected across the area into
Thursday night. Event rainfall totals continue to look much less
impressive than the previous heavy rainfall event over Arkansas,
with amounts likely below one inch statewide.

Colder air will filter into the state as the upper trough shifts to
the east by Friday and precipitation will rapidly taper off as well.
A more zonal flow pattern will return to the region behind this
system and cooler temperatures will be seen, but really cold air
will remain well north of the state. By late in the period another
weak system may approach from the west, but details remain unclear
at this time and POPs will remain low to emphasize uncertainty.


.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.


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