Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280424
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1024 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

A weak cold front is moving through the area today. It isn`t much of
a cold front since afternoon highs are generally warmer than
yesterday, but it is bringing a northerly wind shift that will come
back around out of the southwest tonight.

Zonal flow over the western United States will quickly usher in an
upper trough to the Great Plains on Monday. The jet stream on the
southern edge of the trough will strengthen as it reaches the
Guadalupe Mountains beginning on Monday. The jet will not reach peak
intensity until Tuesday so strong winds on Monday will be
intermittently strong, diminishing Monday night before increasing
stronger on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

Tuesday will be warm and windy, with increasing winds in the
afternoon as a large upper trough sweeps across central CONUS. A jet
max will set up over the area with 70kts at 700mb in the afternoon,
generating high winds in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. A High
Wind Warning is currently in effect for the Mountains Monday
afternoon through Tuesday night. The surrounding foothills and
plains should see some stronger winds as well in this set up, so a
wind advisory may be needed for these areas. These strong winds will
die down Tuesday night as a dry cold front associated with the upper
trough pushes through, and temperatures will fall drastically
Wednesday morning with lows in the 20s and 30s. Wednesday afternoon
will see highs around 20 degrees cooler than Tuesday in the 40s and
50s. Winds will slowly shift around to the south Thursday due to a
deepening lee trough in CO, with highs in the afternoon unable to
break above the 50s. High clouds late in the week will limit warming
as southwesterly flow increases, but we should still reach at least
the 60s Friday and Saturday. Global models try to bring in some
precipitation for the western portions of the CWA this weekend, so
this will be something to keep an eye on, but for now the long term
is dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1024 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2022

VFR will continue with gusty south winds developing by afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               35  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 32  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   38  68  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            39  74  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           37  59  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    32  62  42  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    27  68  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     35  68  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   35  67  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     29  68  38  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday to 7 PM CST
     /6 PM MST/ Tuesday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM Monday to 6 PM MST Tuesday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...29


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