Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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105
FXUS64 KMAF 121743
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1143 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings will steadily improve to VFR this afternoon at
all TAF sites. Post frontal winds will remain gusty out of the
N/NE, but will taper off after 00Z. Intermittent light -DZ and
-SN is possible at area terminals, but no impacts are expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

UPDATE...Have deleted the high wind warning for the Guadalupe
Mtns because...well it`s not windy up there. The wind trajectory
has more of a northerly direction which isn`t favorable for gap
winds. Even The Bowl is only gusting to 14 mph.

Strobin

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018/

An upper trough is moving over the central conus bringing a cold
front through the area. It is much colder behind this front with the
temperature already below freezing at Tatum. This front is likely to
result in high winds in the Guadalupe Mountains so a High Wind
Warning remains in effect for this area until this evening. A Freeze
Warning is in effect for parts of the northern Permian Basin, the
southeast New Mexico plains, and Van Horn and the Highway 54
Corridor for this morning as temperatures continue to drop behind
the front. High temperatures are expected to only be in the 30s and
40s for all except along the Rio Grande today. Models show light
precipitation remaining across mainly the northeastern CWA with
possible redevelopment further south.  A mix of rain and snow or
just snow is possible across the northern Permian Basin, southeast
New Mexico, and the higher elevations of the mountains.
Accumulations are expected to be very light with little to no snow
accumulation.

Skies will begin to clear tonight and the surface high will remain
across the area. Temperatures tonight will plummet as a result. Most
places will have lows in the 20s with upper teens possible in
northern Lea County and the higher elevations of the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains with 30s along the Rio Grande. A Freeze Warning will
be needed for much of the area tonight. Did not issue one on this
shift since a Freeze Warning is currently in effect for portions of
the area this morning. A hard freeze will likely occur across all
but along and near the Rio Grande tonight. Temperatures will warm up
a little on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 40s expected. The
surface high and northerly winds will prevent temperatures from
warming too much. The surface high starts to move east along with
the upper trough on Wednesday resulting in temperatures warming up
into the 50s across most areas. Temperatures will warm up even more
on Thursday as a surface trough develops across southeast New Mexico
and the higher terrain of West Texas. This will result in
temperatures warming up into the 60s. Similar conditions are
expected Friday and Saturday as an upper trough deepens over the
Upper Midwest. This upper trough will result in a cold front moving
through the area Saturday night/Sunday morning. This front will cool
temperatures down into the 50s for Sunday. The GFS is hinting that
some light rain will be possible with this front but left out of the
forecast for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  24  44  27 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       38  23  46  26 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         48  31  50  30 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  25  45  29 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  19  39  28 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          33  20  44  25 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          38  18  40  17 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           38  25  44  27 /  30   0   0   0
Odessa                         37  25  44  27 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           39  23  47  25 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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