Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162241
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
541 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours. Post-frontal winds
will veer overnight to SE by Mon afternoon. Confidence remains on
the low side w/regards to stratus development overnight, as models
offer different solutions. Forecast soundings develop a widespread
cu field Mon, beginning in the east last morning, and spreading
west early afternoon, w/bases 4.5-6 kft AGL. Best chances for
convection next 24 hours looks to be KFST Mon afternoon, but
that`s too far out to pinpoint attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge extends up from Mexico across NM and CO today.  A
weak trough over CA will make little eastward progress as the
subtropical ridge builds over Mexico.  Late in the week a stronger
trough will develop over the western US but the ridge will be hard
to dislodge.

A frontal boundary has moved down into the nrn CWA and is expected
to make it to south of the Pecos River overnight.  Behind it an east
upslope wind will result in a few degrees of cooling.  This front
will lift north tomorrow as SE wind returns but should result in a
cooler day Monday for the Permian Basin.  Latest guidance much
cooler than previous forecast... will cool it several degrees for
now and allow later shifts to cool more if necessary.  Tuesday looks
to be warm with a W downslope wind so went at or over warmest
guidance.  Will be hot Tuesday over 100 in the Pecos and Rio Grande
Valleys.  Readings over the century mark return mid week to much of
the area and continue through Friday.

This afternoon have had one storm develop on the Pecos/Terrell line.
Only carrying a slight chance of storms tonight mainly for the
eastern counties and Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend as model qpf not
developing much precip but frontal boundary could be enough to fire
up some.  Qpf does hit Pecos/Brewster county on Monday afternoon
east of the Davis Mtns so increased pops there to chance. Expect
upper ridge to suppress most convection the rest of the week but
with decent low level moisture and heating cannot rule out some
isolated storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  92  69  96 /  20  20  10  30
Carlsbad                       64  96  65  99 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         70  97  74  99 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Stockton                  68  96  71  98 /  20  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 63  92  65  93 /   0   0  10  10
Hobbs                          61  92  65  96 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                          55  90  59  91 /  10  20  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           67  94  70  98 /  10  20  10  20
Odessa                         67  94  70  98 /  10  20  10  20
Wink                           66  96  69 101 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/05/44


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