Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 181130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
530 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Post frontal conditions with widespread MVFR cigs that will
continue through the morning before slowly improving to VFR by
afternoon. Some localized fog will also be possible. N wind
should veer around to the SE/S tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018/

DISCUSSION...

A dry cold front is currently heading toward the Rio Grande
river in southwest Texas and should be in northern Mexico by
sunrise. Behind this front cooler and below normal temperatures
are expected today through Monday as surface high pressure builds
south into the region from the southern plains. An upper level
trough moving across the eastern half of the nation will send
another reinforcing surge of higher pressure and dry, cooler air
into the region Tuesday with below normal temperatures continuing
into Wednesday.

By Tuesday night and Wednesday a quick moving southern stream
trough and upper jet is forecast to track from New Mexico into
the Texas panhandle. Guidance is indicating that there will be
enough lift with this system to generate a chance of showers
across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas (except the Big
Bend). Will mention isolated thunderstorms as well due to steep
mid level lapse rates expected with the passage of the trough.

Below normal temperatures will continue Thursday and Friday with
the approach and passage of another quick moving southern stream
system across the southern plains. Will continue to go dry for
now but the new ecmwf model is stronger and further south with
this system and bears watching for the potential for precipitation
if future model runs continue in the southern trend.

Temperatures could warm to near normal values by next Saturday
ahead of yet another storm system with cooler temperatures behind
it by next Sunday.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  36  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  29  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  41  61  45 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  47  36  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 43  35  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          45  29  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          53  28  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  33  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         47  34  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           49  32  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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