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005
FXUS64 KMAF 150509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR/IFR conditions will prevail overnight in persistent NE sfc
flow. Stratus deck is forecast to begin eroding W-E after sunup
Thursday, but terminals farther east will see little improvement,
and -SHRA will be possible, mainly KMAF. Stratus will attempt to
redevelop west after 00Z Fri, especially south.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 837 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021/

UPDATE...
We have updated the forecast to included a mention of fog
overnight for areas along and n of I-20. Otherwise the best
chance for storms will be after midnight and toward morning.
Even though MAF 00Z sounding shows very limited instability it is
forecast to increase tonight with LLJ development. A few strong
storms are possible toward morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over NV this morning will roll east across UT and WY
Thursday moving into CO Thursday night before moving onto the plains
Friday.  As that low moves off a secondary low on the backside will
rotate down across NV developing into a cut off low Saturday.  This
low will move over AZ Sunday and open into a trough as it moves into
NM Monday and across the area Monday night.

Started the day with low clouds over most of the area but as of
early afternoon much of the region west of the Pecos was breaking
out of the low clouds with just some high clouds overhead.  As a
result temps across the west were warming while the east was stuck
in the 50s.  NE to E wind should become southerly on Thursday.  On
Friday wind will start out of the west as surface low moves by but
it will drag a cold front down into the area during the afternoon
that passes to the Rio Grande overnight.  Should be a little warmer
Thursday but temps are expected to warm into the 70s and 80s Friday.
Much cooler after the front with highs over the weekend back in the
50s.

Have had scattered very light showers mainly east of MAF all day.
Dewpts have climbed into the 40s and even some 50s across the area.
MAF 12z sounding shows PW has increased to just over 1 inch so brief
heavy rain is possible if a storm passes right over... but overall
totals expected to be light.  Do have directional and speed shear
and slightly unstable so cannot rule out 1 or 2 strong storms. The
NE Permian Basin should have the best chance of rain... in general
the farther west the lower the chance.  The best chance of rain
looks to be late tonight and Thursday morning but rain chances
continue through Monday.

Could see gusty NE wind through GDP tonight but not high enough for
a warning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  53  74  40 /  60  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       77  50  77  39 /  20   0   0  30
Dryden                         78  59  87  49 /  40  10   0  30
Fort Stockton                  77  56  79  42 /  30  10   0  40
Guadalupe Pass                 74  50  71  37 /  10   0   0  30
Hobbs                          67  46  70  36 /  40  10  10  20
Marfa                          80  49  74  40 /  10   0   0  30
Midland Intl Airport           67  54  75  40 /  50  20  10  20
Odessa                         67  54  75  40 /  50  20  10  20
Wink                           75  52  78  42 /  30  10   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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