406
FXUS64 KMAF 152135
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
435 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 434 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Precipitation chances gradually decrease this week and into next
  week. The highest rain chances will be in the Davis Mountains.
  Localized flash flooding remains possible but will be less
  likely than earlier this week and last week.

- A warming trend commences this week and continues into next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A rather quiet forecast is in store for the area with rain
chances (10-20%) being mostly confined to the Davis Mountains and
Big Bend today. Highs this afternoon are expected to be about the
same as yesterday with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s
for most. Chances of showers and storms (20-50%) continue
Wednesday for the same areas. Afternoon highs Wednesday climb to
near normal (mid 90s for most and 80s at higher terrain) as high
pressure builds over Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to be in
the upper 60s to low 70s tonight and Wednesday night.

Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A warming and drying trend persists through this week and
intensifies this weekend into early next week. Deterministic and
ensemble forecasts depict mid to upper ridging over the
southeastern US continuing to develop west, resulting in
increasing subsidence over eastern and central Permian Basin into
Stockton Plateau and Terrell County, development of surface lee
troughing farther west into central NM into westernmost TX, and
more southerly rather than southeasterly winds. This leads to
decreased probability of rain down to near zero for eastern and
central parts of the forecast area, more diurnally driven
shower/storm formation limited to western higher terrain, and less
humid weather as dew point temperatures decrease from the mid to
upper 60s F, upper 50s to lower 60s F western higher terrain to
mid 50s to lower 60s F, upper 40s F to mid 50s F western higher
terrain by the end of the week into early next week. As mid to
upper ridging intensifies, highs in mid to upper 90s, mid to upper
80s, and upper 90s to triple digits along the Rio Grande give way
to highs in upper 90s to triple digits, upper 80s to lower 90s
higher elevations, and up to 110F or greater in Big Bend by this
weekend. Similarly, lows upper 60s to mid 70s F, mid to upper 60s
F Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos and northern Lea County,
and mid to upper 70s F along Rio Grande lows only fall into mid to
upper 70s F, upper 60s to lower 70s F Marfa Plateau into Lower
Trans Pecos and northern Lea County by this weekend as a result of
warmer daytime temperatures.

Forecast rain probabilities are low to medium southwest of the
Pecos River Thursday, except for medium to high probabilities over
the Davis Mountains. Rain probabilities then decrease to low to
medium from SE NM plains into western higher terrain of W TX each
afternoon and evening through early next week. Shear remains below
30 knots with a high probability of staying below 20 knots, so
storm organization and longevity are expected to remain marginal,
and main risks with any stronger storms are forecast to be heavy
rain/flash flooding, gusty winds, and small hail. Forecast NBM
rainfall is only a few tenths of an inch, with mean ensembles
showing similar, lowest percentile ensembles showing only a few
hundredths of an inch southwest of Davis Mountains and Guadalupes,
and spreads similarly only a few tenths of an inch pointing to
even a decreasing risk of heavy convective rains. Therefore, the
main story through the long term will be a return to warm and dry
conditions not seen since the early to middle part of last month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in light return flow.
Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field Wednesday,
w/bases ~ 4.5-9 kft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               71  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 71  97  73  95 /   0   0   0  20
Dryden                   73  96  74  96 /   0  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            72  98  74  96 /   0  20  10  30
Guadalupe Pass           68  90  69  87 /   0  10  10  30
Hobbs                    68  95  71  93 /   0   0   0  20
Marfa                    64  88  66  87 /  10  50  20  70
Midland Intl Airport     72  96  74  95 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   71  96  73  94 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     71  98  74  96 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99