


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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940 FXUS64 KMAF 182300 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 600 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds. - Low (10-30%) rain chances continue west of the Pecos River this afternoon, especially in and near the Davis Mountains. - Near normal temperatures and low to medium (10-60%) rain chances are on the horizon next week. Rain chances look to remain mostly west of the Pecos River each afternoon, with best chances over and near the Davis Mountains. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge extending from the Arizona/New Mexico border to the east coast. This increase in thickness will allow for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most (80s in higher terrain). The surface trough axis previously mentioned has backed off to the west, keeping rain chances (10-30%) well west of the Pecos River this afternoon as southeasterly upslope flow and sufficient surface heating continues. The primary threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, small hail, brief heavy downpours, and lightning. Mixing will occur again tonight due to a LLJ and mid to high level clouds should limit radiational cooling. Expect overnight lows to be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most. Thicknesses increase Saturday as ridging continues to build in from the southeastern CONUS. As such, afternoon highs are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer at many locations. Some spots in the Trans Pecos and southwestern Permian Basin will be at or near the century mark. Showers and storms are not expected anywhere Saturday and Saturday night lows are expected to be the same as tonight. Greening && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 The upper-level ridge builds overhead even further, adding another degree or two to Sunday`s afternoon highs. Expect highs to climb into the upper 90s for most. Portions of the Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and southwestern Permian Basin are forecast to top out in the low triple digits. Shower/storm chances (10-30%) increase a little Sunday, with the best chances over the higher terrain once again. The upper-level ridge weakens as it shifts eastward Monday, allowing for afternoon highs to drop just a tad from Sunday`s. A surface low sets up over southeast New Mexico and west Texas with its trough axis extending south through our western counties. This increases shower and storm chances (20-60%) over the western high terrain. The highest chances are forecast to be over the Davis Mountains. Highs are expected to remain in the mid to upper 90s for many Tuesday through Thursday with the exception of the higher terrain (mid to upper 80s) and southeast New Mexico (low 90s). The aforementioned surface low hangs around midweek and plentiful moisture keep low to medium chances of rain (20-60%) west of the Pecos River. The greatest chances remain in the Davis Mountains (40-60%). Overnight lows stay in the 70s for most every night in the extended. Greening && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 VFR VIS and CIGs throughout TAF period outside of very low probability of showers/storms for terminals over western Stockton Plateau into Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM plains through 03Z. Southeast to southerly winds forecast, with intermittent gusty winds up to 20 knots or higher for Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau through 12Z Saturday, and again 18Z-22Z Saturday at terminals such as MAF and FST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 71 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 71 97 72 98 / 10 10 0 10 Dryden 73 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 98 74 99 / 0 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 69 90 70 90 / 10 10 0 10 Hobbs 69 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 63 91 65 92 / 0 10 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 72 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 71 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 71 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...94