Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 221800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

...New AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Have lingering low clouds across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos
but cigs above 4000ft so remains VFR. Low clouds should come back
in tonight with some MVFR cigs possible. Expect rain/storms will
be slow to develop but did add mention of shra to FST after 06z.
Will save mention of tsra till Monday.


(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

It was a pleasant Saturday across West TX and southeast NM
thanks to a much welcomed cold front. A repeat performance is
expected today as a reinforcement of cool air surges into our region.
Continued cold air advection and increasing cloud coverage will
result a chilly start this morning with lows in the 40s and 50s.
Temps are expected to top out well below normal this afternoon.
In fact, most locations will see highs 15 to 20 degrees below
normal, mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. MET guidance remains
the coldest of the bunch, but there is still a chance that clouds
will clear out later this afternoon so we will only undercut NBM by
a couple of degrees. Thunderstorm chances today will be confined to
the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region where a few storms may cross
over the Rio Grande from MX.

Later tonight, we will begin to see better upper lvl support arrive
as a series of shrtwvs assocd with a large upper trough over the
Intermountain West enters the region. The first shrtwv is expected
to pass over the Davis Mtns and Lower Trans Pecos where rain chances
will be highest tonight into Monday morning. The second, and more
potent shrtwv will round the base of the upper trough and eject over
our region Monday afternoon. In addition to increasing lift,
southerly sfc flow will bring higher dew points into the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos.

Precipitation chances will ramp up in the 18Z-00Z time frame Monday
with highest PoPs (>50%) expected across the eastern Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos. It is important to note however that latest
model QPF has decreased from previous runs and some CAMs are showing
more hit-or-miss convection. Not everyone will cash in on beneficial
rainfall, but areas that do get hit will have a good chance of
seeing moderate to heavy rainfall due to climatologically high PWATs
across the CWA. CAPE values and lapse rates are also expected to
increase Monday afternoon keeping the chance for severe weather in
play. High temperatures will be slightly warmer Monday afternoon,
but still expected to come in below normal, especially across
eastern portions of the region where cloud cover and moisture will
be most prevalent.



(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Monday night, the upper trough is forecast to be exiting West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico.  Both CAMs and long range models hint at
the best chances of convection being over the Western Low Rolling
Plains...and the Stockton Plateau/lower Trans Pecos, as has been the
case during the last couple of events.  A 35+kt LLJ will be
sustaining convection, but by Monday night, this activity will be
tapering off to the east with the trough.  Forecast soundings at 03Z
Tuesday still suggest a marginal risk of severe storms...but better
chances will reside east of the CWA.  PWATs of an inch or more are
forecast over the eastern half of the CWA by both the NAM and GFS,
where storm motion is forecast to be 10kts or less, so heavy
rainfall will be in play.  Forecast PWAT at KMAF at 00Z Tuesday is ~
1.20"...above the climatological 90th percentile.  Increased
moisture advection on the LLJ will keep overnight lows at or above
normal most locations.

Tuesday, temperatures will attempt to recover, but a Pac front will
keep highs close to normal, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.
NBM wants to keep convection going north and east, but we`ve lowered
chances somewhat due to limited moisture and subsidence setting in
on the backside of the trough.  Temperatures Tuesday night will drop
below normal most locations.

Wednesday, for those who like cooler temperatures, highs will come
in below normal most locations, but begin ramping up again into the
extended as upper-level ridging builds in from the west and
thicknesses increase.  By the weekend, temperatures most locations
will be back into the triple digits.  Grids stay dry after Wednesday


Big Spring               75  62  82  63 /   0  20  60  40
Carlsbad                 69  55  90  58 /  10  20  30  20
Dryden                   79  67  83  66 /  20  50  70  40
Fort Stockton            72  62  85  64 /  10  40  70  30
Guadalupe Pass           60  55  84  59 /   0  30  30  20
Hobbs                    68  55  83  58 /  10  20  50  30
Marfa                    70  51  84  51 /  10  50  50  20
Midland Intl Airport     72  63  82  64 /  10  30  50  30
Odessa                   72  64  83  65 /  10  30  50  30
Wink                     70  61  87  61 /  10  30  50  20




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