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000
FXUS64 KMAF 080810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

An MCV associated with overnight convection continues to move east
across the NE Permian Basin. There is some light rain and gusty
winds still occurring, but both should diminish soon.

A major pattern change begins today with very hot temperatures and
much less rain in the offing. Mid level ridging will build over the
area with westerly, downslope flow developing at the surface.
Temperatures will warm into the 90s this afternoon for most
locations with 100s along the Rio Grande. Hi-res models show a few
storms could develop off the Glass Mountains so have added isolated
PoPs to the grids. With the drying sub-cloud layer we could see some
gusty winds, but the severe threat looks very low and isolated.

Even warmer conditions are in store for Friday as mid-level
temperatures heat up even more. Highs will approach 100 for many
minus the higher terrain where temperatures will stay near 90.
Another shortwave is expected to cross the region Friday afternoon,
but the dryline looks to set up much further east than in recent
days. Right now it appears storms will develop from the Big Bend
northeast into the far eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon.
Given the hot temperatures and unstable conditions we could see some
strong to severe storms in these areas. Elsewhere, it will remain
dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The main headline for the extended will be the shifting mid and
upper level pattern leading to a spike in heat across W TX and SE
N. 500mb heights are forecast to rise into the 588-594dm
territory which is a positive signal for increasing temperatures
located over the region. Model guidance is starting to come in-
line with the thermal ridge placement centered from Chihuahua in
Mexico, up through the Big Bend and into the eastern portions of
New Mexico. 850mb temps between 31-35C will be common for the
above areas beginning late this weekend through all of next week.
Historically, this is when the region sees highs in the upper 90s
to low 100s territory with 105+ located in the river valleys.

Blended NBM guidance has come around to this idea, giving credence
to a prolonged stretch of heat for the area. Drier RHs will
accompany the heat thanks to the progression of the dryline
shoving eastward each afternoon, so this will be a taste of
summertime in these parts. Outside some convective development
from intense heating over the high terrain and/or a complex of
storms from the NW, it will be hard to really get any
precipitation for the next several days. Look for hot weather and
mostly clear skies for a majority of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Thunderstorms have moved east of area terminals, though erratic
gusty winds remain possible for the first couple hours of the
forecast period, particularly at INK/HOB/MAF. Winds will
eventually become light out of the E/SE, before shifting to the SW
at all terminals by early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               92  66 100  66 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                 95  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  69  99  69 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Stockton            94  67  98  65 /  10  10  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           87  64  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  63  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    89  56  92  55 /   0   0  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     94  67  99  65 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                   94  69  98  67 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                     97  64 100  63 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...29