Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
000
FXUS64 KMAF 080810
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
An MCV associated with overnight convection continues to move east
across the NE Permian Basin. There is some light rain and gusty
winds still occurring, but both should diminish soon.
A major pattern change begins today with very hot temperatures and
much less rain in the offing. Mid level ridging will build over the
area with westerly, downslope flow developing at the surface.
Temperatures will warm into the 90s this afternoon for most
locations with 100s along the Rio Grande. Hi-res models show a few
storms could develop off the Glass Mountains so have added isolated
PoPs to the grids. With the drying sub-cloud layer we could see some
gusty winds, but the severe threat looks very low and isolated.
Even warmer conditions are in store for Friday as mid-level
temperatures heat up even more. Highs will approach 100 for many
minus the higher terrain where temperatures will stay near 90.
Another shortwave is expected to cross the region Friday afternoon,
but the dryline looks to set up much further east than in recent
days. Right now it appears storms will develop from the Big Bend
northeast into the far eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon.
Given the hot temperatures and unstable conditions we could see some
strong to severe storms in these areas. Elsewhere, it will remain
dry.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023
The main headline for the extended will be the shifting mid and
upper level pattern leading to a spike in heat across W TX and SE
N. 500mb heights are forecast to rise into the 588-594dm
territory which is a positive signal for increasing temperatures
located over the region. Model guidance is starting to come in-
line with the thermal ridge placement centered from Chihuahua in
Mexico, up through the Big Bend and into the eastern portions of
New Mexico. 850mb temps between 31-35C will be common for the
above areas beginning late this weekend through all of next week.
Historically, this is when the region sees highs in the upper 90s
to low 100s territory with 105+ located in the river valleys.
Blended NBM guidance has come around to this idea, giving credence
to a prolonged stretch of heat for the area. Drier RHs will
accompany the heat thanks to the progression of the dryline
shoving eastward each afternoon, so this will be a taste of
summertime in these parts. Outside some convective development
from intense heating over the high terrain and/or a complex of
storms from the NW, it will be hard to really get any
precipitation for the next several days. Look for hot weather and
mostly clear skies for a majority of the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023
Thunderstorms have moved east of area terminals, though erratic
gusty winds remain possible for the first couple hours of the
forecast period, particularly at INK/HOB/MAF. Winds will
eventually become light out of the E/SE, before shifting to the SW
at all terminals by early Thursday afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 92 66 100 66 / 0 0 10 20
Carlsbad 95 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 95 69 99 69 / 10 10 10 20
Fort Stockton 94 67 98 65 / 10 10 10 20
Guadalupe Pass 87 64 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 92 63 94 59 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 89 56 92 55 / 0 0 10 20
Midland Intl Airport 94 67 99 65 / 0 0 10 10
Odessa 94 69 98 67 / 0 0 10 10
Wink 97 64 100 63 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...29