Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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621
FXUS64 KMAF 251858
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
158 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Quiet conditions continue with temperatures rising into the 90s
this afternoon. Drier air and subsidence will keep convection at
bay today and tonight. Lows will bottom out mostly in the 60s
overnight under clear skies. Similar conditions are expected
Friday with a minor forecast update. A disturbance within
northerly flow aloft will move south across the TX PH by afternoon
helping to spark a few showers and storms. These could affect
northern portions of the area along with SE NM during the evening
and overnight. Otherwise, slight stronger easterly flow will shave
a degree or two off high temperatures, keeping them near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

A warming and drying trend remains on track, with highs in last
few runs running a few degrees warmer than highs from 24 hours ago
on the NBM, with lows likewise one or two degrees warmer than in
previous runs. This far out in the period it is possible highs and
lows will oscillate lower or higher every few runs, but the run-
to-run changes suggest increasing confidence in the upper air
pattern signal for a shift by next week from a trough over TX to a
strengthening upper ridge over the Rockies. Before the upper
ridge strengthens over the Rockies, a SW to NE oriented upper
ridge from the Pacific Southwest into the upper Midwest and a
trough extending from northeast MX through the Arklatex upper air
pattern will hold into this weekend. This keeps highs in the mid
to upper 90s, 80s higher elevations, and triple digits along the
Rio Grande for Saturday. With increasing thicknesses, by Sunday
triple digits make a reappearance over the upper Trans Pecos, and
by Monday along the Pecos River as well as over the northeast
Permian Basin. Monday through Thursday will then feature highs 5
to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. While warmer,
we are not expecting record breaking temperatures, especially
considering that we will be past the climatological peak of
hottest temperatures. Lows likewise exhibit a warming trend,
falling into the 70 along the Pecos River and Rio Grande Saturday
night and Sunday night before widespread lows in the 70s and
above, 60s Marfa Plateau into lower Trans Pecos settle in for
Monday night through Thursday night, as an increasing LLJ keeps
overnight temperatures elevated due to boundary layer mixing
inhibiting surface radiational cooling. As in the previous runs,
we are not expecting much in the way of rain aside from diurnally
driven storms over the Davis Mountains, owing to heating of
elevated terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

VFR prevailing through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               69  96  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 70  97  72  96 /   0  10  10  10
Dryden                   70  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            68  95  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  89  68  88 /   0  10  10  20
Hobbs                    66  94  69  93 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                    60  90  62  89 /   0  10   0  20
Midland Intl Airport     69  93  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   70  93  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  96  73  97 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...29