Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 242335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
435 PM PDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will be possible south of San Jose
this afternoon as a cold front moves through. Additional shower
activity is forecast late this afternoon and evening with isolated
showers possibly lingering into Sunday. Dry weather is expected
to return on Monday and continue through next week. A warming
trend is forecast for the first half of the week.

&& of 01:35 PM PDT Saturday...A dissipating cold
front continues to produce scattered showers south of San Jose,
including some rotating cells over the coastal waters. Some of
these showers are producing moderate to heavy rain and in some of
the strongest cells small hail. These showers will continue over
the next few hours before dissipating by early this evening. It
should be noted that snow levels continue to drop with webcams
indicating snow over Mt Hamilton. Minor accumulations are

Farther upstream another weak boundary (easily seen on vis
satellite) is still on track to move south late this
afternoon/early this evening. Therefore, expect another round of
shower activity to develop over the North Bay and then gradually
spread southward through early Sunday. There is still a small
chance for thunderstorms across the North Bay, but chances are
looking less and less. There was a lightning strike observed
upstream - about 50 mi NW of Pt Arena. Based on the lastest
guidance window for thunderstorms appears to be 00-03Z. Rainfall
from this evening through early Sunday will be a few hundredths to
a tenth at best. Snow accumulation will be minor with a dusting

Drying trend will develop through the day on Sunday from north to
south. Some of the models do show a few lingering showers possible
Sunday afternoon, but chances are small.

By Monday the upper trough moves eastward as high pressure builds
over the region. A warming and drying trend will develop and
continue through next week. Based on the lastest model trends
raised temps across the board all next week. It is possible that
by Wednesday interior locations will eclipse 80 degrees. If
verified that would be 10-15 deg above normal.


.AVIATION...As of 04:35 PM PDT Saturday...For 00Z TAFs. Winds
across the region out of the WSW to W with gusts to around 20-23
kt. Winds will remain gusty over the next few hours. Another weak
boundary is expected to move through over the next couple hours
with another round of showers spreading north to south. As the
boundary approaches, expect cigs to become BKN at 4,000 to 6,000
ft and then lower to MVFR. Conditions will rebound to VFR by
around 18z tomorrow has high pressure builds and conditions clear.

Vicinity of KSFO...Winds WSW to W gusting to just over 20 kt. Next
front to move through around 03-04z. May bring some showers to the
terminal along with MVFR cigs. Winds will decrease overnight and
cigs expected to lift late tomorrow morning.

SFO Bridge  Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Light showers remain in the vicinity with
BKN VFR cigs. Winds gusty out of the WSW to W to 20 kt at KSNS.
Winds will begin to decrease over the next few hours. Another weak
boundary will move through late tonight bringing possible showers
to the area along with MVFR cigs.

&& of 02:39 PM PDT Saturday...West winds will continue
this evening, then another cold front will pass through the waters
tonight with another chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Winds will turn northwest and increase on Sunday
behind the front. Gusty nw winds will continue into early next
week as high pressure builds and surface pressure gradients
increase near shore.


     .Tngt...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 2 AM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 2 AM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 2 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm




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