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000
FXUS66 KMTR 292133
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
233 PM PDT Mon May 29 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 PM PDT Mon May 29 2023

Temperatures continue to look to be on the below normal side over
the next few days as continued troughing dampens any chance at
warming up until the weekend. Stratus will continue to be present
at coastal areas through the nights and early morning, before
clearing later in the day. A slight warm-up expected late in the
week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 143 PM PDT Mon May 29
2023

A glance at satellite imagery this afternoon shows stratus
lingering in the North Bay, near Santa Rosa and
Petaluma, and Monterey Bay region. Elsewhere, the stratus has
mixed out, lending to mostly clear skies. The cutoff low that has
pestered the region the last few days continues to hang around,
but has made its way far enough south to be sitting off the
Monterey/ San Louis Obispo county coast. As it does so, it will
continue to keep temperatures cool and below normal, similar to
what we`ve seen the past few days. It is not until mid to later
week that it is expected to exit off to the southeast.

That being said, continue to expect high temperatures near the
coast to remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s, with inland regions
reaching closer to low 70s. Low temperatures range from the upper
40s to low 50s. Near the coast, the stratus is expected to
continue in the same pattern we have seen: robust and extending
inland overnight, then generally clearing and mixing out in the
late afternoon. Drizzle remains a possibility closest to the Big
Sur coast.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 143 PM PDT Mon May 29 2023

Towards the end of the week, in the Thursday and Friday time
range, models seem to be in better agreement as to temperatures
gradually beginning to warm up as slight ridging begins to build
in. Ridging looks to be most amplified Saturday, lending to the
warmest temperatures of the week, bringing them closer to averages
for this time of year. However, another low looks to move in
beyond this, helping to break down the ridge and reduce
temperatures again to below-normal for the first portion of June.
Current CPC outlooks concur, placing much of the region under
below-normal temperatures through at least the next fourteen days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM PDT Mon May 29 2023

Current satellite shows closed low continuing to rotate off the
central CA coast bringing in a stout feed of moisture into the
region. DZ and SHRA activity expected to be much less likely today
as opposed to yesterday. As the low moves to the southwest of the
area, should see more widespread clearing of the stratus today.
In terms of cig height, marine layer has been holding steady at
about 2500 feet and a moist layer down to about 1200 feet per this
morning`s sounding from KOAK. Breezy onshore flow this afternoon
and a return of stratus this evening with higher-than-normal
uncertainty across southern portions of the region due to
interaction from the low.

Vicinity of SFO...Expect mostly VFR through the day today with some
interaction from mid-level clouds associated with moisture wrapping
around the top of the low. Breezy onshore this afternoon. Stratus
return with MVFR cigs tonight by midnight through Tuesday mid-
morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay...Slow to clear this morning with a robust marine layer
still intact up to 2500 feet. Breezy onshore flow this afternoon
with clearing to VFR and some lingering mid-to-high clouds.
Uncertain regarding timing the stratus return this evening due to
interaction with the low that will be moving into south-central CA.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1030 AM PDT Mon May 29 2023

A 9 to 10 second northwest swell with a 18 to 20 second southerly
swell prevails. Winds are mainly light to breezy, as the stronger
winds are being measured farther out to sea. Winds remain mostly
southerly today as the low meanders about off the coast.
Northwesterly winds will begin across the seas starting by Tuesday
afternoon as the low moves ashore. Increasing winds through
midweek create steeper wind driven waves.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM....AC
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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