014
FXUS64 KOHX 160452
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1052 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

- Low to medium rain chances (10-40%) east of I-65 tonight with
  very light amounts. Cooler, drier weather for Sunday and Monday.

- Active weather pattern next week with temperatures favoring
  above-normal.

- Best rain chances are Tuesday through Friday with periods of
  showers and a few thunderstorms. No severe weather expected at
  this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A cold front is now working through Kentucky and is on its way to
Tennessee in a few short hours. Increasing clouds and a scattering
of light rain showers across the Plateau are about the only
impacts from this front overnight. We`ll transition closer to
near-normal temperatures tomorrow as a dry continental air mass
moves into the region with a northwesterly breeze. Monday will be
a few degrees cooler (and dry) owing to a high pressure centering
over the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A more active period of weather is expected across the region
beginning on Tuesday. We`ll start things off with a shortwave
disturbance moving into the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning &
afternoon which will coincide with a zone of warm, moist advection
and a southwesterly low-level jet. Isentropic ascent will favor
rain chances essentially from overnight Monday through Tuesday
night as the surface low to our north devolves into a surface
trough and stalls in the area. With this in mind, continued rain
chances are forecast into Thursday with a transition to
southwesterly flow aloft near the stalled surface boundary.

Medium-range guidance/ensembles continue to depict a more
significant upper-level disturbance to move in from the west
Thursday night into Friday. This system is progged to develop a
surface low across the Central Plains with a warm sector advancing
north of the Ohio River. Eventually the system will move east with
showers/storms near and along a trailing cold front which is most
likely to enter Middle TN on Friday. Overall, we continue to have
40-60% rain chances Thursday into Friday, but we`ll need more
time to build forecast confidence on any specific weather hazards
with this low pressure system. In fact, latest guidance is now
displacing best upper forcing from the front by the time in
arrives here.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Through 06Z, VFR conditions with gusty SSW winds occasionally up
to 20KT.

06Z-12Z, a front will move across the Mid State with a band of
clouds and isold -SHRA. CSV and maybe SRB will have a period of
MVFR cigs/vsbys, but other sites are expected to stay VFR. Winds
will go from WSW to NW as the front passes.

After 12Z, all sites VFR. Winds will be NNW around 10KT with a
few 16KT gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      54  66  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
Clarksville    51  64  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     52  60  32  57 /  40   0   0   0
Columbia       56  68  36  65 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     52  61  34  58 /  40   0   0   0
Jamestown      50  58  32  55 /  50   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   56  67  35  64 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   56  66  35  63 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        51  64  37  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....13