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000
FXUS64 KOHX 281932
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
232 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

It`s not exactly a kind of day you`d expect during the last week of
June -- highs in the mid 80s with dew points in the upper 40s and
low 50s? Definitely out of the norm. But hey! We`ll take it! In
fact, at least part of the mid state will take it again tomorrow.
Dew points might ramp up a little across our southern counties
(back into the 60s) and it might be a few degrees warmer, but all
in all, tomorrow should be pretty fantastic, too. However, we`re
going to be right on the edge. While it`s likely that just about
everybody remains dry tomorrow (even those near the TN/AL state
line), a storm or two could creep into our southern zones. We`ll
keep a tiny PoP in there for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

Being on that edge is only going to increase each day this week.
Temperatures should hold around average through the rest of the
week, but it does look like rain chances are going to creep
northward each afternoon as the upper ridge situated just to our
east starts to break down and weak southerly flow begins. Activity
should be diurnally driven each day and while forecast soundings
aren`t exactly anything to write home about when it comes to severe
weather, as we all know, most summer days with thunderstorm chances
also bring with them the potential for damaging gusty winds, so keep
this in mind for the second half of the week if you have outdoor
plans.

This weekend will prove to be interesting forecast-wise. A couple of
things are going on, but most everything will likely revolve around
the eventual trajectory of a weak tropical disturbance currently
expected to bring a bunch of rain to the TX Gulf Coast during the
second half of the work week. The problem is, models are having a
tough time agreeing on the evolution of this system. The Euro wants
to take it on this grand tour of the Gulf Coast states and the GFS
wants it to become part of the overall pattern by Sunday. In any
event, it`s likely that rain chances for the weekend are going to
increase over the next couple of days. This stinks if you have
outdoor plans, but it will go a long way to improving our worsening
dry conditions across Middle TN.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2022

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period for all Middle
Tennessee terminals. NNE/NE winds will be 5-10 kts through the
afternoon before decreasing to 5 kts or less for the remainder of
the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  91  70  92 /   0   0  10  30
Clarksville    56  89  65  91 /   0   0   0  20
Crossville     62  83  65  84 /   0  10  10  30
Columbia       62  90  68  89 /   0  10  10  30
Cookeville     62  87  67  87 /   0  10  10  20
Jamestown      60  85  64  86 /   0   0   0  20
Lawrenceburg   63  89  68  88 /  10  10  10  40
Murfreesboro   62  91  69  91 /   0  10  10  30
Waverly        58  90  67  91 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan