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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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875 FXUS64 KOHX 261720 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 It`s another day in this soupy air mass you could swim in. There`s ample moisture around the area with the remnants of a morning MCV sparking some storms and heavy rain in the southwestern counties. The rain rates have been impressive at time and that has lead to some localized ponding. North of the remnant MCV, a surface boundary is draped across I-40. This will likely spark more showers and storms this afternoon. With PWAT values in the 1.7-1.9" range and slow storm motions, some localized flood will be possible this afternoon. Shower and storm coverage will decrease this evening and areas of fog could develop again after midnight through early Saturday morning. The broad trough that has assisted in the active pattern we`ve seen this week will pull east overnight with upper ridging building in on Saturday. We don`t get rid of all of the rain chances on Saturday as the moisture will remain in place. Scattered storms will develop in the afternoon but should not be quite as widespread. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The upper ridging won`t last long as a trough organizes over the southern plains on Saturday and moves toward our area on Sunday. Widespread showers and storms are likely on Sunday. Once again, heavy rain will be likely with showers and storms as PWAT values increase to possibly over 2". Storm motions will be quicker on Sunday, but rain rates will be high enough to potentially cause some localized flooding. A large upper high will build over Texas on Monday and will expand eastward toward our area by midweek. With that, temperatures will increase with highs getting into the mid 90s for the first time in a couple weeks. The air mass will remain humid which will have a two effects. First, afternoon storm chances will remain in the forecast. Second, heat index values could climb to the 105-110 range by Wednesday afternoon for the remainder of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Scattered showers and storms with heavy downpours will bring brief impacts at times this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, conditions will stay VFR with light winds. For tonight, showers/storms will diminish and areas of fog will form, especially for CSV/SRB. Outside areas of fog, conditions will be mainly VFR with continued light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 90 74 87 / 20 30 20 90 Clarksville 70 87 72 84 / 20 30 30 90 Crossville 63 84 67 82 / 20 40 10 70 Columbia 69 88 72 85 / 20 40 20 90 Cookeville 66 84 70 82 / 10 30 10 80 Jamestown 64 85 68 82 / 10 30 10 70 Lawrenceburg 69 87 71 84 / 20 40 20 90 Murfreesboro 70 90 72 86 / 20 30 20 80 Waverly 69 87 70 85 / 20 40 30 90 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....13