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000
FXUS64 KOHX 190257
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
957 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection continues to develop west to east across south central
and southeast KY in vicinity of surface front. KOHX 19/00Z
Sounding showing a capping inversion around 800-750 mb keeping
convection from developing across mid state region presently.
Believe if any convection somehow develops as late evening into
overnight hours progress due to a weak upper level disturbance
possibly moving across our area along with some degradation of
above mentioned low level capping inversion occuring, it will
likely be isolated in nature and mainly north of I-40 Corridor,
especially Upper Cumberland Region, which is closet to outflow
boundaries from current convection to its north. Believe chances
for strong to severe convection for remainder of evening and
through overnight hours has ended. Tweaked hourly temperature,
dewpoint, sky condition, and wind speed/direction grids blending
them with previously forecasted associated hourly late evening
gridded values. Current temperature trends generally in line with
forecasted lows. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

There is still some uncertainty regarding precip development this
evening and overnight that could impact BNA and CSV. Left mention
of some vicinity showers and storms in those two locations this
evening in the event that we do see development in the northwest
part of the area that drops southeast. It`s not out of the
question that MQY could also see vicinity activity, but the
likelihood remains low at this hour. Gusty winds will relax some
overnight tonight, then pick back up again during the day
tomorrow. For the most part, conditions should remain VFR at all
sites.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......JB Wright
AVIATION........11