


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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971 FXUS64 KOHX 130033 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 733 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 731 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Rain and thunderstorms continue through the weekend, best chances are in the afternoon/evening hours. - Risk of severe weather is low, however, localized heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be possible with isolated stronger storms. - Warmth continues into the work week, with 20 - 30% chance of heat indices greater than 100 degrees. && .UPDATE... Issued at 733 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Some storms are approaching from Kentucky this evening, but not expecting too much out of them for most of us here in Middle Tennessee. We are watching for our northwestern counties though; severe weather is not expected. Forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 As of 15z, the radar is quiet across Middle Tennessee. There are some scattered Cu that have developed along and east of I-65. This is in response to a weak shortwave that is noted on water vapor imagery. Behind the wave, PWAT values are notably lower with a pocket in West Tennessee indicating values of less that 1.5" while the plateau currently have PWAT values greater than 1.8". Visible satellite shows a lack of Cu growth over West Tennessee due to the drier sinking air. Looking at the 12z CAMS, the afternoon storm activity is pretty suppressed over Middle Tennessee thanks to this more convectively-hostile air. That doesn`t mean we won`t see a couple of isolated storms pop up, but I feel like the CAMs are onto something with the limited activity through the mid afternoon. The one area we`ll need to watch is the northwest late in the afternoon and into the evening as storms develop over northwest AR, eastern MO, and southern IL and push eastward. This could move into our area after 00z and gradually weaken through 03-04z as it moves east. A couple additional scattered showers and storms may develop overnight as deeper moisture advects back into the area. Sunday will see the potential for diurnal convection mainly after 17z. As far as the potential for severe storms today and Sunday, outside the isolated risk for a strong wind gust with storms moving into the northwest this evening, I don`t see much potential. Rainfall could be heavy with some of the activity, but storm motions should be around 20 mph which is progressive enough to prevent a flash flooding threat. Highs today and Sunday will be in the mid 80s on the plateau and the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. Afternoon heat index values will be around 100 degrees west of the plateau each afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1046 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 As we move into the next work week, we`ll keep the diurnal storm chances. Activity on Monday and Tuesday will be fairly scattered in nature with Middle Tennessee along the northern periphery of the upper high. The upper high may weaken some as we get into the mid to late week period which will increase the diurnal activity. Highs through the week will remain in the upper 80s to mid 90s with afternoon heat indicies in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours with a few exceptions. Watching line of TSRA that may be able to hold it together to impact KCKV between 01Z-03Z bringing brief MVFR/IFR Conditions, but think the line should decay enough not to impact KBNA or KMQY. Otherwise, some -BR/BCFG could briefly develop at KCSV and KSRB between 09Z-13Z. More TSRA development expected after 18Z, however pinpointing impacts and locations are too difficult to include in the forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 93 75 93 / 10 50 10 40 Clarksville 72 90 73 89 / 30 50 20 40 Crossville 67 87 67 88 / 20 40 10 50 Columbia 72 92 72 92 / 10 50 10 40 Cookeville 69 88 70 88 / 20 40 10 60 Jamestown 68 87 68 88 / 30 40 10 50 Lawrenceburg 71 91 71 91 / 10 50 10 40 Murfreesboro 72 93 72 93 / 10 50 10 40 Waverly 71 90 71 89 / 20 50 20 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Holley SHORT TERM...Reagan LONG TERM....Reagan AVIATION.....Hurley