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000
FXUS64 KOHX 020801
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
301 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Patchy fog developing across several locations across mid state
region presently. Not out of the question some of this fog could
be locally dense. Will continue to monitor development and
visibility restrictions across our area as these early morning
hours progress and issue any followup products if needed.

Otherwise, good overall pattern model consensus continues between
latest CAMs, North American, and global models on overall weather
pattern through entire forecast period, with any quandaries
centered around specific impacts to specific locations. Overall,
expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to remain
generally around and south of I-40 Corridor today as some drier
air works into mid state`s northern portions. Look for drier air
to move further south across entire area by mid evening hours
tonight with dry conditions prevailing through Saturday. Strong
surface and subtle upper level ridging influences over western
Gulf of Mexico will be catalyst to ushering in warmer air across
mid state region, with highs today seasonable warm ranging upper
80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Lows tonight
will be around seasonal normal values in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Although humidity overall will not be that high on Saturday.
high temperatures are expected to continue to warm. Highs on
Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for
locations across and just west of Cumberland Plateau Region as
broad upper level ridging influences to our east try to build
across our area and surface high pressure influences strengthen.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

Mid state should remain dry Saturday night as surface and subtle
upper level low influences to our east begin to build to our
southeast. This will bring showers and thunderstorm chances back
with isolated to scattered showers possible across our entire area
on Sunday with best potential across Cumberland Plateau Region.
These best chances across Cumberland Plateau Region associated
with surface troughing develops just to our east and subtle upper
level low moves northwestward into eastern portions of our area.
The warmest temperatures of forecast period are expected Saturday
night into Sunday. Saturday night lows will mainly span low to mid
60s with highs on Sunday in low to mid 90s, mid 80s highest
elevations of Upper Cumberland Region to lower 90s for locations
just west of Cumberland Plateau Region as afternoon relative
humidity values overall raise slightly also. Slight shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue into Sunday evening. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be a possibly
mainly Monday and Tuesday afternoons as temperatures cool closer
to seasonal normal values as a strong cold front approaches from
our north. There will be drier air behind this front associated
with a 1024mb high pressure center across southern Hudson Bay,
Canada. This surface front will eventually move into our area
Tuesday night into Wednesday with isolated showers and
thunderstorms being possible mainly once again afternoon hours.
But as this front shifts southward and broad 1012 mb surface high
pressure influences build across much of the central and eastern
contiguous U.S. dry conditions with a return to seasonal normal
temperatures is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Despite
these shower and thunderstorm chances, seven day total cumulative
QPF values still look rather light, generally less than one half
of an inch across our area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jun 2 2023

VFR conditions currently. BR/FG expected to develop mainly
between 08Z and 12Z, with highest confidence for CSV/SRB.
Otherwise VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period as
VCTS is expected to stay to the south of all five terminals.
Northeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots expected after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  63  93  67 /  20  10   0   0
Clarksville    90  61  93  67 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     84  57  86  62 /  20  10  10  10
Columbia       89  60  92  64 /  20  10   0   0
Cookeville     86  59  88  63 /  20  10  10  10
Jamestown      85  58  88  61 /  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   87  60  90  64 /  30  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   90  60  93  63 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        89  61  92  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Adcock