Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 131855
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
155 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

.DISCUSSION...

If you haven`t heard, today is the day to get out and cut
that grass -- the heat is coming. Scattered cumulus, temperatures in
the 80s everywhere in Middle TN and even some bearable dew points
are the story at forecast time, but by mid-week it`s going to be
noticeably different.

An upper level ridge over the western half of the U.S. brought them
Heat Index values in the 110-115 range the last couple of days and
while it shouldn`t end up feeling that hot here, it won`t be far
off. That ridge will slide eastward over the next 48 hours and I
hate to say it, but it`s going to be with us for awhile. Even worse,
the dew points are going to crank up at the same time, so by
Wednesday, we should start seeing triple digit Heat Index values
across our far west. Then, each afternoon, they`ll start creeping
eastward so that by Thursday and Friday, we`ll be close to Heat
Advisory criteria (105+ degrees F) west of the Cumberland Plateau.

The big question starting Thursday is whether we`ll see any
afternoon storms. With the ridge overhead, my tendency would be to
say no, but any weakness in the ridge will open that possibility
each afternoon through the weekend. So, I`ll hold onto a 30-40 PoP
each afternoon, with the top end of that range over the Plateau, but
it wouldn`t surprise me if those numbers are a little high. Either
way, afternoon thunderstorms could squelch the mid-100 Heat Index
values, but no storms? We`ll very likely get there. Find some shade
this week. You`ll probably need it.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...An unusually dry air mass has settled across
Middle Tennessee. A ridge of high pressure remains situated to our
west, and there will be little change in the weather pattern
during the next 24 hrs. Expect mostly clear skies with radiation
fog once again late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      67  94  69  97  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    63  91  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Crossville     61  87  64  89  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Columbia       65  92  67  95  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   65  92  67  95  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Waverly        65  92  68  94  71 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Unger
AVIATION........08


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