Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 202330
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
530 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Clouds blanketed us this morning and since, have moved on. That
has allowed the sun to come out and we`re warming up nicely.
Another great day out there. Of course, with the warmup, and some
dry air aloft, we`ve seen RH values drop off pretty well. RHs are
in the 20s across most, if not all of Middle TN, with a few spots
in the low 20s. Not a huge surprise, as we`ve been noting, but
with light winds and fairly recent rains, no major issues are
expected.

I was close to copying and pasting yesterday`s AFD this afternoon
and this is good news. That means models have been very consistently
showing the same thing for several days. That leads to confidence in
this forecast, especially in regards to severe potential on
Thursday. Let`s first start with the non-thunderstorm winds. Winds
will start to pick up tomorrow afternoon as the surface pressure
gradient tightens across the region. Gusts of 20-25 mph are
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Thursday, ahead of the frontal passage, we`re going to be very
close to Wind Advisory criteria. GFS forecast soundings suggest
the idea of 40 to 45 are possible, however, looking probs in DESI
of 40+ mph gusts Thursday afternoon, they`re relatively low,
running 20-40% with the higher values on the Plateau. This makes
sense in the higher elevations. For now, no headlines, but expect
30-40 mph gusts Thursday afternoon.

As far as storms, as I mentioned, things haven`t changed. With a
capped environment in the morning, we`re probably looking at showers
with a few elevated thunderstorms. The main time of concern remains
to be late afternoon and evening as the front moves into Middle TN.
As the morning cap erodes and gives us a chance tap into some
surface-based instability, more widespread thunderstorms chances
become likely. Mid-level lapse rates continue to be depicted between
7 and 7.5 deg/km, which would suggest a hail threat. Also, there is
some dry air aloft, which would indicate the potential for a little
more CAPE to be realized. Finally, the Euro continues to show a
surface low much further south than the GFS -- though, the GFS is
picking up on at least a secondary low developing closer to us,
which may help in the forcing category. All that just to say, severe
chances aren`t high, but I do think there`s a sneaky good chance we
could end up issuing a few warnings for hail and wind. I would like
to see some more surface based instability vs relying on
frontogenetical forcing for lift, but we`ll need to watch this
system closely on Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, the weekend still looks great. Dry, 60s Saturday
and Sunday with 70s by Monday. However, with 70s this time of year,
we`ll all know what that means. More thunderstorms aren`t far away
and that still looks to be the case Tuesday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

VFR conditions will continue throughout the current TAF period,
with increasing mid to high clouds tomorrow afternoon. Southerly
winds continue, becoming gusty after 18Z with gusts up to 15 to 20
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  69  52  64 /   0   0  10  80
Clarksville    37  68  52  62 /   0   0  10  90
Crossville     33  59  43  58 /   0   0   0  50
Columbia       36  67  52  63 /   0   0  10  70
Cookeville     36  62  49  59 /   0   0  10  70
Jamestown      33  61  45  59 /   0   0   0  60
Lawrenceburg   37  66  51  63 /   0   0   0  50
Murfreesboro   34  67  51  64 /   0   0  10  70
Waverly        39  67  53  62 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Adcock


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