732
FXUS64 KOHX 230004
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
704 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

- Elevated fire weather conditions today due to low RH values and
  breezy northwesterly winds through the afternoon. Outdoor
  burning highly discouraged.

- Rain and thunderstorms likely tomorrow and tomorrow night. Some
  storms could be severe during the late afternoon and evening,
  posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Fair weather for the beginning of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

We are seeing nice weather this evening and that will continue.
Dew points are on the dry side and that will help temperatures
fall off somewhat quick this evening with lows tonight in the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Clouds will start to push into the west in
the next few hours and will continue spread east through the
night. Overall we will see dry weather overnight but warm air
advection will start to increase and can`t rule out a few showers
in the far northwest towards daybreak. A cold front will bring
widespread rain chances for the area during the afternoon and
evening Sunday. Still looks like some strong storms will be
possible with the front with the highest chances along and west
of I-65, wind and hail will be the main threats with anything
strong.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

It`s a beautiful start to the weekend across Middle Tennessee with
not a cloud in the sky. Temperatures will warm through the 50s and
settle in the 60s this afternoon. It is quite dry out there with
afternoon relative humidity values expected to be less than 30%.
Winds have shifted to the WNW/NW behind a dry frontal passage,
and those winds will gust to around 15-20 mph this afternoon. With
the combination of dry air and gusty winds, burning is not
advised today.

After a cool start to the day on Sunday, we`ll warm up to the upper
60s to mid 70s as southerly low level flow ramps up ahead of the
next system. A surface low will slowly move from Minnesota to the
Great Lakes on Sunday with a cold front approaching our area
Sunday evening. Models show modest instability with mlCAPE values
in the southwest around 500 J/kg. The better dynamics will be
offset from the best instability with the strong low level just
closer to the Kentucky border. Overall thinking regarding the
severe threat remains the same. There is a low probability of
storms reaching severe limits during the evening time frame with
the best chances along the Tennessee River. Storms will clear the
area by midnight ending any threat for severe storms. The main
severe threats with any strong storms will be damaging wind, small
hail, and a very low threat for a tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

We start the new work week off nicely as the cold front will be
clear of the area by Monday morning. We should see plenty of
sunshine and temperatures in the 60s during the afternoon. There is
a weak clipper system that races by the area on Tuesday. A couple
models have some light QPF along the northern plateau, but I
think the biggest impacts will be a wind shift to the WNW and some
gusty winds in the afternoon. Wednesday looks like another nice
day with surface high pressure moving by the area behind the
clipper system. Thursday will be warmer as high pressure moves to
the east and upper level ridging builds into the area. Models
continue to show a shortwave trough ejecting out of Texas
sometime early next weekend but there`s plenty of details to work
out with that, but it could bring some rain chances to the area
during some point of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025

VFR conditions tonight with NW winds turning to the SE by 12z
Sunday. A front brings scattered showers and thunderstorms after
20z tomorrow, moving from NW to SE. MVFR CIGs are possible for
CKV after 18z tomorrow then spread SE to BNA/MQY as a more
organized band of storms move over terminals around 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  74  46  68 /   0  80  80   0
Clarksville    44  69  43  66 /  20  90  50   0
Crossville     35  68  43  62 /   0  30 100   0
Columbia       42  74  45  68 /   0  70  80   0
Cookeville     39  70  44  63 /   0  50  90   0
Jamestown      35  68  43  62 /   0  50 100   0
Lawrenceburg   42  73  47  67 /   0  60  90   0
Murfreesboro   40  74  45  67 /   0  60  90   0
Waverly        45  69  44  67 /  10  80  60   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Mueller
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Cravens