550
FXUS64 KOUN 130325
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1023 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

- Cold front moves through on overnight/Sunday bringing cooler temperatures.

    - Elevated fire weather conditions north Sunday and some
      areas north and west this coming week.

- Rain chances return late in the week

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

After near record heat today, a cold front will enter northwest
Oklahoma this evening and make its way south across the area tonight
into the day Sunday. Models differ a bit with timing of the front
pushing south of the Red river, but most places will end up with a
northeast wind by mid-afternoon. Cooler temperatures however will be
confined to mainly northern half of the area as farther south
afternoon highs will once again climb well into the 90s. Some
locations along the Red river may again approach record temperatures.

Along with cooler temperatures, drier air will also filter south
into the area. So even with the cooler temps, the combination of
breezy northeast winds, low afternoon humidity (around 20%) and
ongoing worsening drought conditions, some elevated fire weather
concerns will linger.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Breezy northeast winds will continue Sunday night as caa continues
to bring cooler air into Oklahoma and north Texas from the
northeast. Northern Oklahoma will see temperatures fall into the 40s
by Monday morning. Much cooler temps expected across the entire area
on Monday as most locations will only warm into the 70s by
afternoon. Some lower 80s will remain across the Red river valley.

South winds return quickly Monday night ahead of another reinforcing
shot of cooler air that will slide south through the Plains in
response to another shortwave rotating around large upper trough
over the Great Lakes region. So a warmer day will occur Tuesday
ahead of reinforcing shot of cooler air for Wednesday. Southwest
Oklahoma and north Texas will again see daytime highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s Tuesday afternoon. These temps along with breezy
winds will create elevated fire weather.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Some of the coolest temperatures of the season expected Wednesday
morning as much of the area will dip into the 40s (lower 40s across
the north).

Models show large trough developing across the west as we go
through the end of the week. Ahead of this lee cyclogenesis will
occur with south winds returning to the Plains with quite windy
conditions possible. Although surface temperatures look to remain
in the 70s for the most part through the end of the week and some
recovery in surface moisture may limit how low the daytime RH can
drop. The stronger winds and drought conditions will likely result
in some elevated fire weather conditions.

Models in the extended are showing an increase in the chance of rain
and perhaps heavy rainfall. Models are showing a slow-moving closed
low that could result in periods of heavy rainfall as we go into the
weekend and early the following week. However, uncertainty remains
therefore not making any changes to NBM out at day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

VFR ceilings will continue this TAF period with mid and high
clouds. Cold front has moved into the far NW corner of the main
body of the state. This boundary will continue to move across the
area overnight into Sunday morning with winds shifting to the N
and NE behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  92  60  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         96  60  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  98  64  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           96  55  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     95  61  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         94  63  92  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...25