576
FXUS64 KOUN 031830
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

- Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall remain possible this
  afternoon and into Friday afternoon.

- Rain/thunderstorm chances continue through the long term period.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The upper ridge begins to shift eastward ahead of an approaching
shortwave, and southerly winds become breezy over northwest into
western Oklahoma this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
along with locally heavy rainfall, remain possible this afternoon
and into the overnight hours. We will be watching for continued
flash flood potential, given the anomalously high PWAT values of
2.0 to 2.4 inches. Convective cores are anticipated to be rather
limited in areal coverage. Therefore, the heavy rainfall
potential is quite localized and dependent on where storms
develop. Hourly rain fall rates of 1 to 3 inches are possible this
afternoon and overnight.

Thompson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The aforementioned shortwave, currently centered over southern
California, lifts northeastward across the central Rockies late
Friday as mid-level ridging begins to develop over the desert
southwest. Cloudy skies and periodic, scattered showers/storms
will lead to relatively cool temperatures for Independence Day.
High temperatures have trended lower since the last forecast
cycle, and are expected to be about 10 degrees below the
climatological average. Even so, it will definitely feel humid,
with dewpoint temperatures in the low- to mid- 70`s. Rain chances
diminish greatly late afternoon and into the evening for outdoor
holiday festivities.

Temperatures on Saturday will be several degrees warmer than recent
days, with high temperatures peaking in the upper 80`s to low 90`s.
With the humid air mass in place, heat index (HI) values begin to
rise to near the century mark on Saturday afternoon for some
locations. Rain/storm chances continue through Saturday night.

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The ridge continues to build and amplify over the western half of
the CONUS with southerly winds persisting through middle of next
week, which will allow temperatures to gradually increase through
mid-week.

There are daily chances for rain/storms and the humidity is anticipated
to stick around for awhile. Thus, the 70 deg dewpoint temperatures,
combined with temperatures in the 90`s, will lead to a gradual
increase in HI values early next week. HI values near 105 deg are
possible by Wednesday, especially across southeastern Oklahoma.

Thompson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Slow-moving areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue
across our area this afternoon and evening. Skies have lowered to
MVFR ceilings in parts of central and southern Oklahoma near those
storms, though mostly VFR conditions continue. Another round of
showers and storms looks likely tomorrow morning. Guidance is
again suggesting MVFR/IFR stratus in the morning, but this largely
busted today so will go with low-end VFR for tomorrow in a
persistence forecast.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  83  71  88 /  20  30  20  30
Hobart OK         69  84  70  89 /  50  50  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  72  83  71  89 /  60  60  20  20
Gage OK           67  85  67  90 /  20  30  30  20
Ponca City OK     69  86  71  88 /  10  30  20  30
Durant OK         73  86  72  91 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...01
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...04