Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 030238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
938 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Another relatively quiet night expected tonight before things change
tomorrow. Models show the upper trough continuing to slowly move
east the rest of today and tonight with a shortwave moving through
the flow rotating from the Four Corners into the central/northern
Plains Tuesday.

Another day/night of showers/storms primarily remaining west of the
fa is expected this afternoon and evening. There is a low chance
that some activity may affect far western/northwestern portions
of the fa overnight with a slightly better but still low chance in
the morning of some showers and maybe a few storms in western OK
and western north TX. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon
with the highest chances in western OK and western north TX.

Models show a thin ribbon of low/mid 60s dewpoints moving into
western portions of the fa by Tuesday afternoon. This moisture is
just east of a dryline that is expected to develop in the eastern
OK/TX panhandles. Storm development will be possible along the
dryline late Tuesday afternoon into evening. With the increasing
moisture and approaching trough, instability and shear are expected
to be sufficient for severe storms to be possible with large hail
and damaging winds the primary concerns. The window for severe
storms could be fairly narrow depending on the extent/width of the
higher moisture over the region, so in other words, the further east
you go the more uncertainty and lower the severe potential could be
Tuesday afternoon/evening.


(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Moisture is expected to continue to spread northward Tuesday night
into Wednesday with higher 60s and maybe some 70s dewpoints possible
in the fa Wednesday. Rain chances are expected to continue to spread
east across the fa Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, models show a cold front moving into and slowly across
portions of the fa, although there is still some question the timing
of the front with current runs a bit slower than yesterday`s runs.
Showers/storms will be likely Wednesday and Wednesday night. The
moist airmass could become unstable enough for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon/evening although there is some uncertainty due
to the unknown effects, if any, from any convection Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning. Right now, the highest potential for
severe weather will be across portions of southern OK and western
north TX but this can change due to timing of front and/or earlier
storms. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
concerns Wednesday with any severe storms.

Another increasing concern Wednesday and Wednesday night will be
heavy rain/flooding. With increasing moisture leading to higher
PWATs, 2-4 inches of rain will be possible across portions of
central and southern OK and north TX with the possibility of some
locations receiving even higher amounts. The heavy rain could lead
to flooding in some locations, especially if training of storms
occurs. A Flood Watch has not been issued yet but if qpf trends
continue, one may be needed for parts of the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

The cold front continues to slowly move south and southeast across
the area Wednesday night with cooler and drier air moving into the
region. Rain chances are expected to end from generally north to
south across the area Thursday as the front continues to push
further south of the area and the dry air moves into the region. At
or below normal temperatures are expected for the end of the week
into next weekend with highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s.


(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 928 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

An upper storm system will increase thunderstorm chances in
western Oklahoma from late Tuesday morning. Storms are likely
overnight in western then central Oklahoma. South winds will be
gusty overnight there and quite gusty during the day. VFR
conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms.


Oklahoma City OK  68  87  66  82 /  10  20  60  80
Hobart OK         69  88  64  83 /  10  50  60  70
Wichita Falls TX  69  92  68  88 /  10  30  60  80
Gage OK           63  84  59  78 /  30  60  50  30
Ponca City OK     68  87  64  82 /  10  30  70  60
Durant OK         66  90  69  82 /   0  10  40  90




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