Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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239 FXUS64 KOUN 141850 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 150 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Mid/upper ridge continues to influence the region. Warm conditions expected tonight with lows in the mid 70s. Thermal ridge will spread E/NE Monday with 850mb temps forecast to be a few degrees warmer than today. This will lead to even hotter highs Monday with temperatures expected to climb into the triple digits across the entire fa with hottest temperatures in northern OK. Triple digit heat index values are also expected Monday afternoon with values of 105+ expected pretty much areawide so have issued a heat advisory for the entire fa. Heat index values hover around 110 in north central OK so an upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed there but will hold off for now and let later shifts take another look at it.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The mid/upper ridge will continue to influence the area Tuesday before beginning to amplify over the western U.S. that is expected to lead to a pattern shift the middle of the week. The amplifying ridge will lead to NW flow aloft over the region and this is expected to continue into next weekend. With the ridge continuing to influence the area Tuesday, hot and humid conditions are expected to continue Tuesday afternoon with triple digit heat index values and a heat advisory likely needed across at least parts of the fa. Most of the fa should also remain dry Tuesday. However, some of the models and CAMs are showing a sfc trough/weak boundary near the OK- KS border which could bring a chance for rain to northern parts of the area Tuesday. Since this is a new trend, kept the forecast dry for now but if it continues some low PoPs may need to be introduced earlier on Tuesday. With the pattern shift in the middle of the week, models show a cool front moving across the entire area Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures along with a chance for showers and storms. Rain chances will continue into next weekend across at least parts of the fa. Temperatures are also expected to remain around or a bit below normal Thursday into next weekend. So it does look like there should be a break in the heat later this week.
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&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected until 151800. South to southwest winds will be gusty during the daytime periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Oklahoma City OK 76 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 77 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 78 103 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 76 107 75 100 / 0 0 10 10 Ponca City OK 77 106 79 103 / 0 0 10 10 Durant OK 77 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013-017>020. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...09