823
FXUS64 KOUN 130620
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

 - Temperatures plunge into the 30s on Sunday; otherwise near or
   above-normal conditions for much of the next week.

 - No chances for precipitation through the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

While seasonable-to-warm conditions are expected today, a stronger
frontal passage remains poised to sweep across the area this
evening/tonight. In the meantime, widely scattered patches of
high clouds and a light northerly breeze are fostering a cold
morning, with daybreak temperatures expected to hover around the
freezing mark across much of the forecast area.

The leading edge of a much colder airmass resides near the
Nebraska/Kansas border early this morning. This colder airmass will
accelerate southward through the day, as a 1040-mb surface high
dives into the Northern Plains. Saturday afternoon temperatures
will range from the upper-40s north, where stronger cold advection
is forecast, to mid-60s across western-north Texas amidst a weak
downsloping regime in advance of the airmass change.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The brunt of the colder airmass will settle across the region by
Saturday night and linger into Sunday. Gusty north-northeasterly
winds (occasional gusts up to 40 mph) are expected from near
sunset into early Sunday morning across the southern one-half of
Oklahoma and north Texas, as a strong pressure gradient develops
in response to the approaching surface high.

If your Sunday plans take you outdoors, you will want to make sure
to bundle up! A notable northerly wind will contribute to single-
digit wind chills across much of Oklahoma around daybreak.
Conditions into the afternoon/early evening are not expected to
feel markedly better, with some locations across central and
northern Oklahoma likely struggling to warm above the freezing
mark (despite clearing/clear skies and light winds).

The good news is that our blast of much colder air will be
confined to Sunday, with a warming trend beginning by Monday. The
late weekend front/system will continue accelerating to our south
and east, allowing for greater influence from an upstream upper
ridge. A modest downsloped airmass will promote locally warmest
conditions (low-60s) near the 100th meridian on Monday afternoon.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The main weather message into next week remains above-normal
temperatures and dry surface weather. A weak upper wave will move
across portions of Texas on Tuesday, offering another dry frontal
passage. The Pacific origins of this system will limit concern for
additional cold/cooler in its wake. In fact, temperatures look to
continue warming into the midweek, with 70s possible across
southern zones by Wednesday. We will want to keep tabs on possible
fire weather concern by this time, with potential for overlapping
areas of <20% afternoon relative humidity and gusty southwest
winds.

The passage of a stronger system/front is becoming more evident
as we head towards the end of the week, though disagreement
exists on the degree of resulting sensible weather impact for our
area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue at most terminals through the TAF
period. The likely exception is Durant (KDUA), where MVFR stratus
is likely with the potential for IFR stratus after sunrise
tomorrow. The stratus may persist into the early afternoon.

Light east/northeast winds will continue to weaken and become
light and variable in the morning. A cold front/northerly wind
shift will move through tomorrow afternoon, shifting the winds
back toward the north. These winds will become gusty by tomorrow
evening.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  21  33  23 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         58  21  37  23 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  61  26  40  24 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           56  19  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     46  18  32  20 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         59  27  40  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...10