Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 111059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
559 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...New AVIATION...

(Today and tonight)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Early this morning, isentropic ascent atop low 50s dewpoints
could foster some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across
the area. An approaching mid-level perturbation should allow for
lapse rates to steepen and support some elevated instability.
Some high resolution models seem to show little-to-no initiation
at all, but that is likely due to the weaker moisture advection
beneath the isentropic ascent. Southern OK, at the very least,
still has the best threat for marginally severe hail accompanying
any deeper convection. The threat for convection does, however,
have the possibility to reach the I-40 corridor and vicinity if
surface moisture can increase. Models are in agreement with
modest effective shear that could support organized cells, should
they form. Any storms that do form, will tend to be isolated.

During the day, cloudy skies and rain showers with ENE surface
flow will keep temperatures across the area in the mid-to-upper
50s. Rain showers should taper off some this evening with low
temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the area.



(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

A low amplitude wave will make its way through the area on
Wednesday, with low precipitation chances until it moves out of
the area Wednesday evening. Northwest flow aloft will be overhead
through most of the area through the remainder of the week, until
a broad ridge sets in later this weekend. There is the chance that
some residual convection, emanating from the Central/High Plains,
moves into the area late on Friday into Saturday morning.
Temperatures will gradually increase to near normal temperatures
over the weekend with highs in the low 80s.

Model guidance suggests that a negatively tilted mid-level trough
could bring the chance for more organized convection across the
area on Monday. There is model discrepancy on the initiating
boundary currently and shear looks to be weaker, but the main
point here is that an active pattern could exist next week.
Confidence in potential and timing will be better later this week
and into the weekend.



(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Ceilings will lower quickly this morning from VFR/MVFR to IFR with
possibly some LIFR later this morning. Sfc visibility will also
lower to mainly 3-5 mile range, but could see some lower vis
within the shower/thunderstorm activity that is expected to become
widespread later this morning. Precip chances will diminish from
west to east during the afternoon and early evening hours. However
IFR conditions will likely continue through 12Z Wednesday at most


Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

An Upper Air flight is planned for 12z this morning.


Oklahoma City OK  57  48  61  47 / 100  20  20  10
Hobart OK         56  47  62  47 /  90  20  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  61  51  63  49 /  90  30  30  10
Gage OK           54  42  61  43 /  60  10  20  10
Ponca City OK     60  47  63  44 /  70  20  10  10
Durant OK         61  53  65  50 /  90  50  20  10




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