307
FXUS64 KOUN 152305
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
605 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Severe thunderstorms will be possible during the short term period
this afternoon and tonight with the severe risk returning Thursday
afternoon.  An upper trough will be digging across the Southwestern
U.S. approaching the Southern Plains with a surface low settled
across western Texas through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
Bisecting the surface low are two boundaries, a cold front stretched
across the eastern Panhandles and a dryline across western Texas.
Our CWA remains to the east in the warm sector and will continue to
destabilize with very moist shallow air at the surface.  Could see
storms start initiating by 5 PM as diurnal heating breaks the cap on
the Southern High Plains while the aforementioned trough starts
ejecting shortwaves through the mid-levels across our CWA.  With
MUCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and 30-40 kts effective shear, the
environment for storms to grow in would be sufficient for clusters
of organized severe thunderstorms with supercells to be ongoing
across our area overnight.  Northern, western, and a portion of
central Oklahoma will be in the areas for the highest risk of severe
storms which could produce up to 80 mph downburst/microburst wind
gusts and up to baseball size hail.  The tornado risk will be lowest
due to the limitation of the low-level moisture.

Although the severe risk tonight should ramp down during the early
morning hours as instability weakens, thunderstorms mostly elevated
will persist through the morning hours.  As far as surface
boundaries, the dryline will remain well to our southwest but could
see the cold front push into northwestern Oklahoma early Thursday
morning and becoming stationary across our CWA by the evening, but
models still performing poorly with the location of where the front
will stall out.  Moisture ascent over the frontal boundary with
shortwave disturbances in the mid-level will continue favoring storm
development on Thursday with a severe risk returning during the
afternoon into the evening hours.  The severe risk on Thursday will
be lower with large hail (up to golf balls) and damaging wind gusts
(up to 60 mph) as the severe risks.  Although not expecting any
widespread flooding, heavy rainfall training over saturated ground
could result in some localized flooding especially in poor drainage
and flood prone areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The upper trough & surface front finally move through on Friday with
storm POPs coming to an end from west to east across our CWA.  The
polar westerlies shifting more northward across the U.S. Northern
Plains on Saturday with a trough setting up over the eastern Pacific
Ocean.  Meanwhile the subtropical jet builds a weak ridge over the
Southern Plains initiating the start of a heating trend this weekend
as temperature rise about 10 degrees warmer than climatically
average for mid May.  Will see afternoon highs in the upper 80s to
mid-90s across our CWA this weekend.  South winds make a gusty
return on Sunday along with increasing gulf moisture reforming a
dryline across the Southern High Plains.  Our heating trend peaks on
Monday with highs in the 90s areawide (upper 90s across our western
CWA) while combined with upper 60s dewpoints could make it feel
quite muggy.  Although staying mostly dry across most of our area,
models suggest MCS type systems Sunday & Monday nights across the
Central Plains but do have storm POPs adjacent into northcentral
Oklahoma.  Late morning mixing into a strong nocturnal low-level
jet will result in windy conditions each afternoon early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Storms are expected to become widespread across the northwest half
of the area this evening and will likely linger through much of
the day Thursday, especially south. MVFR conditions will
accompany the the stronger convection. Winds will be from the
southeast a majority of the time, but will likely be erratic and
perhaps quite strong during the stronger storms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  63  77  60  77 /  80  60  60  40
Hobart OK         60  76  57  80 /  80  60  70  20
Wichita Falls TX  63  76  60  80 /  40  60  60  20
Gage OK           56  74  53  82 /  80  50  40  10
Ponca City OK     61  75  60  77 /  90  60  60  30
Durant OK         67  81  63  81 /  10  40  60  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...30