Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

FXUS65 KREV 160605 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
1105 PM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018


The storm has arrived with quite a punch across eastern CA from
Alpine County northward, with the Tahoe basin hardest hit so far.
For western NV, we have received reports of about 2-5" in
foothill areas (including Washoe Valley and the NWS office) mainly
on unpaved surfaces, and that amount will continue to increase
overnight. For paved surfaces, accumulations are highly dependent
on elevation and whether roads have been pre-treated. Valley
floor locations around Reno still have wet roads with air temperatures
hovering around freezing. The rest of the night into the Friday
morning commute will be an exceptionally nasty period for travel--
even down to valley floors where conditions could vary from wet to
slushy with poor visibility.

All winter headlines will remain in place. Latest guidance is
indicating that the heaviest snow will persist over Tahoe through
much of Friday afternoon, and steady snow will probably occur
along the I-80 and US-50 corridors in western NV through much of
the afternoon, although accumulations during the daylight hours
should be limited outside of the heaviest snow bands. Mono County
will see conditions worsen during the day Friday from north to
south, with their peak snowfall rates most likely between 10 am
and 8 pm. Mineral/Lyon Counties look to have their peak snow later
Friday from 4-10 pm with slushy accumulations possible on
portions of US-95 and Alternate 95. Much of the steady snow will
taper down to lighter showers from north to south Friday evening
as the upper jet forcing and deep moisture feed exits to the south
and east. However, some narrow bands of heavier convective snow
could continue overnight (especially west of US-395) as the upper
low center moves across northern CA. MJD


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 140 PM PDT Thu Mar 15 2018/

Winter storm will impact the region through Saturday morning with
dangerous travel conditions in the Sierra. Snow across western
Nevada will greatly slow the Friday morning commute. Snow showers
will give way to warmer conditions for Sunday and the start of
work week. The next storm system is forecast to arrive on
Wednesday with rain and heavy mountain snow possible.


Winter storm is moving into the Sierra and will impact western
Nevada this evening and tonight. For the eastern Sierra heavy snow
may hold off until Friday morning or Friday afternoon.

Really no change in forecast reasoning for the Sierra with feet of
snow on tap through Saturday. See the latest Winter weather
statement for specifics on snow totals. Jet placement and strong
instability favor precipitation easily spilling into western
Nevada by this evening. Snow levels may be a bit slow to fall
across western NV, with potential for a rain/snow mix below 4500
feet as precipitation begins late this afternoon or early this

Models develop a strong and likely convectively driven snow band
roughly along I-80 early Friday morning which will be the primary
source of difficulties for the Friday morning commute. Size of the
precipitation band remains in question as these features with
spring storms can only be a few miles wide, but drop 1-3 inches of
snow per hour.

For the eastern Sierra, light snow will begin along the Mono
County crest this evening, but models hold off on the heavy snow
until Friday morning or Friday afternoon in the Mammoth Lakes

System will end from north to south with heavy snow persisting
across Mono, Alpine, Douglas, Lyon and Mineral counties through
Saturday morning. Once the main storm clears snow showers will
hang around for Saturday afternoon with a warming trend starting
for Sunday.

Next system of note is forecast to arrive by early Wednesday,
which is slightly slower than previous model solutions. This
system should have an atmospheric river tied to it, so there is
potential for significant snows in the Sierra. This system does
have a warmer and more southerly origin, so snow levels will be
higher (start at or above 6000-7000 feet) with highest
precipitation potential from Tahoe to Mammoth. Brong


Winter storm with IFR/MVFR conditions likely at the Tahoe
terminals starting this evening and continuing through Friday
evening. 12 inches of snow or more is possible at both locations.

For KRNO and KCXP, a few light showers should begin by late this
afternoon with periods of moderate to heavy snow likely between
06z- 18z Friday. A few inches of accumulations are possible. LLWS
remain possible at KRNO into this evening with gusty south winds

Farther south at KMMH southwest winds should persist all night
with snow holding off until after 12z and perhaps as late as 18z
Friday. Heavy snow is likely after 21z Friday and should last into
early Friday.

Winter storm will clear out Saturday with lingering snow or pellet
showers. Dry conditions return Sunday with fog potential at KTRK.
Next system of note is forecast to move through the region
Wednesday and Thursday. Brong


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ005.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ003.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday NVZ004.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday CAZ070.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Lake Tahoe in

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Saturday CAZ072.



For more information from the National Weather Service visit... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.