Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 141032

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
332 AM PDT Mon May 14 2018


Low pressure remains over Nevada through Tuesday. This will keep
temperatures near average with chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms. Another system will move into region early in the
week with chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting through
much of next week.



Cut off low pressure continues to spin like a top over central
Nevada as it slowly weakens. Today the low is wobbling a little
more west and is forecast to move over western Nevada tonight
before the next incoming low pressure begins to push the weakened
low to the north on Tuesday.

Expect another day of showers with a few isolated thunderstorms
this afternoon. It looks like the best forcing will be a little
later in the day today, which could allow enough clearing to
increase differential heating enough to provide a tad more
instability to the convection, but still no organized or strong
storms are expected.

By Tuesday the area of low pressure off the coast begins to
increase upper level divergence and forcing for storms. Tuesday
and Wednesday both have the potential to start seeing stronger
thunderstorms as the incoming low exerts its influence over the
region. Models continue to struggle with the timing of this next
low pressure which will ultimately determine when and where the
strongest storms will be. Either way, a couple more stormy days
with increasing chances for stronger thunderstorms should be
expected over the next few days. -Zach

.LONG TERM...Thursday into the weekend...

Some adjustments were made to the early part of the extended for
Thursday/Friday, but didn`t change much after. The models are
struggling with the eventual evolution of the pattern and if/when the
closed lows eventually eject and are replaced by a drier southwest

Thursday will still see plenty of showers and a few thunderstorms on
the back side of the upper low. Friday will see some drying, but we
still expected isolated to scattered showers and storms with a few
degrees of warming. There is a light west flow aloft, but this will
not be enough to scour out much of the moisture.

The weekend is up in the air, and left at least a slight chance of
showers and storms area-wide. The GFS is drier with a light west to
southwest flow. This would slowly push the moisture east, with
perhaps most of the storms Sunday confined to the Lassen and Mono-
Mineral Convergence Zones. The EC has another weak upper low moving
through keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms going each day.
Split the difference with the forecast for the weekend as the
ensembles show no preferred solution. Temperatures will remain near
average late in the week into the weekend. X


Showers will continue to move through the Sierra this morning with
MVFR CIGS/VIS in the heavier showers through 13Z. Some FG is
occurring in the Martis Valley as well, but should burn off by 16Z.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire again this afternoon,
first in the Sierra around 20Z, then a bunch that form over Central
Nevada moving westward to affect KLOL/KNFL/KRNO/KCXP after 00Z. Peak
outflow gusts to 30 kts and local MVFR CIGS/VIS in these
showers/storms. Expect the showers to become much lighter by 07Z and
more isolated.

More storms are expected the remainder of the week, but VFR
conditions will be predominant outside the showers/storms. The most
widespread day of showers looks to be Wednesday. X


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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