904
FXUS62 KTAE 191023
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
623 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper level trough will move through north-central Georgia today.
Cooler temperatures aloft with this trough will steepen lapse rates,
and residual moisture appears sufficient for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area this
afternoon. With the cooler temperatures aloft, small hail will
possible with storms that develop. In addition, fairly high DCAPE
values due to some mid-level dry air may allow for some gusty winds
with the storms as well. Any storms that develop are expected to
diminish after sunset. Highs will generally be in the 80s across the
area this afternoon with lows tonight generally in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

A weak cold front should move through the forecast on Monday as
the upper level trough that brought an active weekend of weather
moves off the east coast. One weak shortwave passing through and
northerly flow converging with the seabreeze at the surface could
help generate a few showers, and possibly a thunderstorm on
Monday afternoon across the southeast Big Bend where better low to
mid-level moisture exists. High temperatures should be a little
cooler on Monday and drop into the mid to upper 80s.

Dry northwesterly flow moves in as a ridge axis to our west begins
to build. Rain chances should clear out with the surface high and
easterly flow remaining in place for the afternoon. Expect
temperatures to warm back up to around the upper 80s and around
90.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Quiet conditions are in store for much of the week as the upper
ridge axis builds across the southeast. Light easterly flow
through the week is expected and with the ridge controlling the
pattern, no rain is expected. We will likely see above normal
temperatures through the period with highs in the low 90s most
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Pockets of MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue early this morning
with VFR conditions returning later this morning areawide.
Otherwise, an upper low will move across north Georgia today. The
cold air aloft will support some pop-up afternoon shower and
thunderstorm development. Confidence in placement, coverage, and
timing is only high enough go with VCSH and VCTS at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

West winds lighten through the day and eventually become north and
northeasterly by Monday as a cold front moves through. Winds and
seas will lessen some but still remain around 10 knots and 2 to 3
feet into Tuesday as easterly flow remains. Expect increases in
the overnight hours with easterly surges from the Atlantic
seabreeze. By Wednesday of next week light winds and seas are
expected to bring good boating conditions to area waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Other than high dispersions in the afternoon, there are no fire
weather concerns for the next few days with saturated conditions and
relative humidity above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing
or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few
days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee
River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and
will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower
Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee
Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin the river will generally
hold steady or rise slowly through the week. Across the Panhandle
in the Choctawhatchee Basin rivers rises to near flood are likely
through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from heavy rainfall, no new
hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area
likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   87  67  85  65 /  30  10  20   0
Panama City   84  69  87  68 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        84  66  83  64 /  10   0  10   0
Albany        83  64  83  62 /  40  10  10   0
Valdosta      86  67  84  63 /  40  30  20   0
Cross City    86  67  86  63 /  50  20  40  10
Apalachicola  84  70  82  70 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs