841
FXUS62 KTAE 152000
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Dry and benign conditions are expected through tomorrow now that
we`re post-frontal. Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow. Expect
daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The next round of severe weather is possible Friday into Saturday
and SPC shows a marginal risk for portions of the area at this time.
The main threat looks to be Friday night into Saturday, with one
or more complexes of storms moving through the region. Damaging winds
appear to be the main threat, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
There are still a lot of timing differences to be ironed out, so
please stay tuned, and weather aware if you have outdoor/travel
plans.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the
remaining showers, with thunderstorms possible across eastern
areas. This will make way for upper level ridging to build and
finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder of the
long term period.

Temperatures will remain warm to around 90 for the afternoon
highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances
are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze
convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Gusty winds this afternoon settle by sunset this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

High pressure will pass across the waters on Thursday. Southerly
breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong
to severe storms will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance
of the next weak frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will
pass across the waters on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Dry weather is expected to prevail into Thursday, with the main
fire weather concern being high dispersions. Come Friday, another
change in the weather pattern is forecast with showers and
thunderstorms expected late Friday into the weekend. Given the
recent wetting rains that have occurred over the last few days,
and once again this upcoming weekend, there are currently no fire
weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The Withlacoochee River (Valdosta Skipper Bridge) is expected to
go into minor flood. The Ochlockonee River (Concord) may approach
flood stage.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC
highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive
rainfall for Friday into Saturday in our northwestern counties,
and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA. Through the weekend,
a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher amounts.
Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will monitor for
ongoing and future riverine flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  91  68 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   84  69  86  72 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        86  63  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        86  63  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  65  88  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    84  67  88  66 /  70   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  71  85  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....Montgomery/LF
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Haner/LF
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery/LF