707
FXUS62 KTAE 171047
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
647 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Right off the bat this morning, an impressive squall line is racing
eastward along the northern Gulf coast towards the forecast area.
Wind gusts in excess of 80 mph were measured earlier with this line
in the New Orleans area. While the line may weaken some given a
little lower instability in our neck of the woods, we can`t rule out
some severe weather early this morning, mainly along the panhandle
and big bend coast where instability is greatest. Farther to the
north, a large area of stratiform rain exists, and we`ll have to
watch for wake low development as well this morning which could
result in gusty winds to the north of the main squall line.

The convective evolution this morning will affect what happens this
afternoon and tonight in terms of additional shower and thunderstorm
development, and confidence is low on exactly what will play out.
The general consensus is for new development to occur across the
northwest portions of the forecast area later this afternoon.

Highs today may be held down a couple of degrees due to cloud cover,
and we`re generally expecting 80s across the board. Overnight lows
tonight will be muggy, mainly in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Uncertainty remains high through the short period as a lot of
what happens in this period, especially through the day on
Saturday, will depend on how convection evolves through Friday and
overnight into Saturday morning to our west. Elevated
southwesterly flow will be firmly entrenched over the forecast
area into Saturday as the next, possibly last, shortwave in the
southwesterly flow will be approaching by daybreak. The timing of
this wave will help determine how far west favorable forcing and
instability develop through the morning and afternoon hours.
Further complicating matters will be the eastward progression of a
potential MCS (organized complex of storms) in the morning.
Should this MCS plow through quickly ahead of the upper level
shortwave, it is possible this could lower severe probs for our
afternoon severe threat. With a slower shortwave/MCS and
sufficient shear of 40 to 50 knots in place, we will likely
realize some severe potential amongst the relatively large mid-
level lapse rates and modest instability. More organized storms in
this environment will likely bring a greater wind potential. With
the steeper lapse rates, large hail is also possible, but confidence
is lower in that threat materializing. A brief tornado can`t be
ruled out either but with low-level shear fairly low and very weak
turning in the low-level hodographs, the damaging wind and hail
threat will be the main hazards folks this weekend need to be
monitoring.

Widespread showers, in addition to scattered severe storms,
continue into the evening hours but a general downtrend in severe
weather should begin to develop as the forcing moves east and
instability wanes. However, with one last shortwave passage left, isolated
severe storms remain possible overnight Saturday into early
Sunday.

The trough pushes through Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft
moving in. While the severe threat will be noticeably lower and
east compared to Saturday`s event, our GA counties along the I-75
corridor and down into the southeast Big Bend could see strong,
possibly severe, storms given the favorable temperatures aloft
and remnant instability.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper level ridge settles in as the trough from the weekend moves
out. A quieter and drier pattern is forecast through much of next
week. This pattern should lead to a warm up in temperatures with
highs back in the low 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

A squall line of thunderstorms will pass mainly south of the
terminals this morning. Otherwise, showers and gusty winds
with ceilings fluctuating between VFR and MVFR are expected around
TLH and DHN later this morning. For this afternoon, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near DHN and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

South and southwesterly flow will prevail through the weekend with
periods of advisory level conditions possible. The first being
this morning as a complex of thunderstorms moves over area waters
and a potential wake low (bringing with it strengthened southerly
flow) develops. These winds could last up to 6 to 9 hours
producing higher winds and seas. Large scale southerly flow
decreases some Saturday, which will lead to borderline
cautionary/advisory level conditions with trends continuing into
Sunday and the upcoming week. Showers and thunderstorm chances
will be elevated through the weekend, especially Saturday
afternoon/evening as the main upper level system pushes through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

For today and Saturday, multiple clusters of thunderstorms are
likely to cross the area, with the heaviest rain and greatest
potential for severe storms coming on Saturday. Behind the front on
Sunday afternoon, the air mass will start to dry out. High afternoon
dispersion is forecast over inland districts on Sunday afternoon due
to a deep mixed layer and moderate westerly transport winds.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

The Ochlockonee and upper portions of the Withlacoochee Rivers
have crested or will crest in the next 24 to 36 hours. After the
crests, gradual reductions should continue. However, more rain is
on the way this week with widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches. These amounts on their own shouldn`t cause additional
issues but localized higher amounts could cause further rises on
already elevated rivers.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  74  86  70 /  50  20  80  50
Panama City   83  73  82  70 /  80  30  80  40
Dothan        84  71  78  67 /  60  50  90  30
Albany        85  71  82  67 /  60  50  90  40
Valdosta      88  74  87  69 /  30  30  80  60
Cross City    87  73  87  70 /  40   0  60  70
Apalachicola  82  75  82  72 /  80  10  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT /2 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs