Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231040
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
640 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Thursday]...

IFR CIGs will continue until mid morning. VFR conditions will return
by early afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop by
late morning. Activity will increase in the afternoon hours. Rain
showers will persist overnight tonight in parts of Georgia and
Alabama.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [341 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Central U.S. and a trough is
over the Northeast. At the surface a weak low is over the Southeast
today. With abundant low level moisture across the region another
soggy day is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late
this morning. Activity will increase during the afternoon hours. 60
to 80 percent POPs are expected for most areas. Immediate coastal
areas will be a little drier with 20 to 40 percent POPs. Mostly
cloudy skies are expected today with highs in the 80s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

This wet pattern will continue through the short term. PW values
of 1.5-1.75 inches will be above normal over the next few days
and will see PoPs in the 30-70 percent range during the day and
more limited at night to 20-50 percent with the loss of daytime
heating. The higher rain chances will be further inland. Some
minor flooding is possible in the short term with the heavy
rainfall and over any areas that storms train. High temperatures
will range from the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low to mid
70s. While the high temperatures are fairly close to normal, lows
are well above normal for this time of year.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The long term is expected to be wet with the focus on a tropical
disturbance and rainfall amounts. Models are still in disagreement
with the track of a tropical disturbance that is currently in the
Caribbean with guidance spanning the eastern and central Gulf of
Mexico as the disturbance moves northward. NHC has given the area
a 50% chance of development in the next five days. Regardless of
if the system does develop though or it`s exact track, significant
rainfall amounts are expected with 7 day rainfall totals of 3-7
inches (locally higher amounts possible). Given these amounts,
will need to closely monitor the long term for flooding. PoPs
remain high through the long term (chance and likely categories)
with no dry days in the forecast. Expect highs in the 80s with
lows in the 70s.


.MARINE...

Initial winds of 10 knots or less will increase for the weekend to
at least around 20 knots as a tropical disturbance currently in
the Caribbean moves northward into the eastern or central Gulf of
Mexico. There is still uncertainty in the track of the disturbance
and if it will develop into to a tropical system and given this,
boaters should monitor the forecast closely. Regardless of
development though, we will remain in a wet pattern over the next
week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern will be in place for the next week. No fire weather
concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

The wet pattern will continue over the next week with widespread
rainfall totals of 3-7 inches expected with locally higher
amounts. In regards to river flooding, the rivers have been able
to handle the rain so far and only a few sites are in action
stage or forecast to reach action stage. With additional rainfall
over the next week though, this will have to be monitored closely.
Besides the rivers, localized minor flooding will be possible the
next few days with the flash flood risk increasing for this
weekend.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   86  70  87  71  85 /  50  10  40  20  60
Panama City   82  74  83  74  83 /  50  20  40  30  50
Dothan        85  71  86  70  85 /  70  40  70  50  70
Albany        86  71  86  71  85 /  80  40  60  50  70
Valdosta      86  70  88  70  85 /  60  20  70  50  70
Cross City    86  70  88  70  84 /  40  10  50  40  60
Apalachicola  82  73  84  73  82 /  20  10  20  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux


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