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000
FXUS62 KTAE 201057
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
657 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Areas of fog and/or low ceilings have developed this morning,
impacting the DHN and TLH terminals with LIFR conditions. A brief
period of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at ECP, ABY and VLD
until around 15z. Isolated to scattered convection may develop
this afternoon ahead of a cold front but the chance at any one
location looks fairly low at this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [316 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough will deepen down the eastern seaboard sending
a cold front into our CWA by late afternoon/early evening. While
this cold front will bring the coldest temperatures to our area so
far this fall season, convection along and ahead of the front will
be weakening. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible but mostly
isolated to scattered showers are expected with QPF amounts
generally less than one-tenth of an inch. Due to the late arrival of
the front, temperatures will be above seasonal levels for all but
our northernmost zones. Highs will range from the lower 80s north to
around 90 across portions of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...

The cold front will continue to move through the region tonight with
a few showers lingering past sunset. By 12z Sunday morning, the
front should be south of us, into central Florida. Much drier and
cooler northwest flow will build in behind the front with tonight
feeling the first effects with lows around 50 inland and around 60
near the coast.

Sunday through Monday night remain dry as broad surface high
pressure encompasses much of the midwest and eastern U.S. with
ridging aloft. Highs Sunday will be the coolest we`ve felt since
April; upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night may feel COLD
(considering how above normal we have been) with lows in the 40s,
maybe near 50 at the coast. Temps start to warm into Monday with
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The pattern turns a little messier on Tuesday as a weak upper
disturbance moves west to east off the Texas coast. Winds aloft
shift to the west helping to move this system into the area but with
winds at the surface more easterly, the really deep moisture won`t
make it into the area on Tuesday. Have kept the pops fairly low at
this point except for offshore areas. Drier northwest flow returns
behind this as a weak front pushes the disturbance to our south. Dry
conditions therefore return for Wednesday and most of the area
Wednesday night.

A very similar set up that we will see Tuesday sets up for Thursday
and Friday with a stalled frontal boundary over the waters and zonal
westerly flow aloft and easterly flow at the surface. Much more
moisture will be evidence with this system. PW values will be rising
from less than one inch Tuesday to above 1.75" by Saturday.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible then Thursday into
Saturday with timing and strength differences still evident among
the models this far out. Highs will generally be in the mid to
upper 70s through Friday with lows in the 50s. Saturday could be
much cooler again but will ultimately depend on which model
solution is correct.


.MARINE...

Winds will be light early today before increasing
quickly this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through.
By tonight, winds will pick up to 15 to 20 knots with occasional
gusts to 35 knots possible, mostly in the offshore zones. Seas
could get to 6 feet tonight and even as high as 8 feet by Sunday.
Winds will generally stay elevated, 10-20 knots, through the week
with seas remaining 2 to 3 feet due to multiple weak disturbances
moving west to east from the coast of Texas.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

No hydrology concerns are expected with no widespread rainfall
forecast until the end of next week. Area rivers will continue to
fall.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   87  58  71  47  75 /  20  20   0   0   0
Panama City   84  59  70  52  75 /  30  20   0   0   0
Dothan        82  50  66  44  70 /  40  10   0   0   0
Albany        84  51  67  44  73 /  40  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      86  55  70  46  74 /  10  20   0   0   0
Cross City    88  63  74  50  78 /   0  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  62  73  55  74 /  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Central
     Walton-Holmes-Jackson-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...LN
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...LN