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000
FXUS62 KTAE 292356
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
756 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

.UPDATE...

The drying trend will continue into tonight under northwest flow
aloft. Minor adjustments to the sky, temperatures, and dew points
with this update. Scattered low clouds will skirt portions of SE
AL to northwest of the Flint River Valley GA late tonight. Quite
a dew point gradient at this time, with 43F at Defuniak Springs
and 73F at Valdosta! The T/TD adjustments blend into the previous
forecast within the next six hours, otherwise, no other changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Saturday]

VFR conditions through the period. The only exception may be some
MVFR cigs making into DHN around 12z, but kept these scattered, as
low confidence in BKN/OVC cigs leading to restrictions. Southwest
winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts to 20 knots, diminishing
and veering to the northwest overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [322 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

Conditions improving across the forecast area as a few showers
linger in our eastern zones along a passing cold front. Post frontal
and under dry northwesterly flow we will notice a significant dip in
temperatures overnight, with lows near 50 across much of the
forecast area. This trend will continue though tomorrow with highs
only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. No further precipitation
is expected after the remaining shower activity exits to the east
this evening.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

Northerly winds will become more northeasterly Friday night into
Saturday as the surface high pressure to the north pushes eastward
out into the Atlantic. A slight warming pattern will commence,
with lows on Friday night in the upper 40s to near 50s and
Saturday night in the mid 50s to low 60s. High temperatures on
Saturday are forecast in the 70s with mostly sunny skies.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday a deep trough digging across the eastern CONUS will
drag a dry cold front across the area, cooling temperatures down
to the lowest they`ve been so far this fall. No rainfall is
expected with this front, mostly due to the lack of moisture
return in the wake of the previous front. Low temperatures in the
wake of the front Sunday night are forecast in the low 40s to low
50s, although Monday night may actually end up being the coolest
as northerly winds continue to push cooler air southward into the
area. High temperatures on Monday are forecast in the 60s with low
temperatures Monday night in the upper 30s well inland to mid 40s
near the coast. A gradual warming trend is expected Tuesday
through the rest of the forecast period, with high temperatures
rebounding to the mid 70s to low 80s by Thursday.


.MARINE...

Elevated winds and seas will gradually continue to subside over
the next couple of days as a cold front moves through today and
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through tomorrow
morning. After today, dry conditions are expected across the
marine area into next week. Another cold front is expected to push
across the waters Sunday into Sunday night.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty winds will diminish this evening as showers along a cold front
exit our region to the east. Dry conditions will prevail for the
remainder of the period with RH values in the upper 50s. No fire
weather concerns are expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

No meaningful rainfall accumulation is expected through the
forecast period. Area rivers are in good shape, and no hydrology
concerns are expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   51  71  53  76  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  70  54  76  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        48  67  49  71  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        50  69  50  71  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      50  70  53  74  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    53  73  56  80  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  70  57  76  64 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South
     Walton.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...Humphreys
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield