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000
FXUS62 KTAE 281328
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
928 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.UPDATE...

Only slight changes to the weather grids were done to include the
isolated chance for thunder for the showers and storms over the
Gulf currently. Although chances are great given that cloud tops
are low, a strike or lightning or two can`t be ruled out. PoPs
were not changed in this update. Best chances today still remain
along coastal areas where PWAT values are slightly higher than
inland locations, which will allow for greater vertical extent of
CU to grow into isolated showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [613 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

While high pressure will dominate at the surface today, an upper
level trough axis will swing into the CWA today with the tail end of
it breaking off and forming a weak and broad upper level low. This
may result in a few shower developing across the Florida counties
today or the marine area, but overall chances remain low (10-20%).
Both the forecast high and low temperatures will be around normal
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Surface high pressure initially centered over the mid-Atlantic
states aids in gradual moisture return from the southeast to begin
moderating the post-frontal airmass. Meanwhile, remnant impulses
rotating within the flow aloft could help spark a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, primarily along the seabreeze
front(s). However, Precipitable Water values ranging from 1-1.4"
should limit overall coverage.

Better rain chances are in store for Memorial Day thanks to greater
moisture overspreading the region from the Bermuda High. Best
potential for showers and thunderstorms is across the FL Big Bend
and I-75 corridor during the afternoon forced by the Atlantic and
Apalachee Bay seabreeze reinforced by southeast flow. A few
strong storms capable of gusty winds, frequent lightning, small
hail, and heavy downpours are possible.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
with lows primarily in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Large-scale ridging prevails over the region early next week with an
embedded mid/upper low meandering over the state of FL. This pattern
supports typical summertime weather characterized by very warm
temperatures (highs in the upper 80s to low 90s) with diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms from the seabreeze. The ridge then
appears to flatten out in response to a weak trough passing to our
north late next week. This feature may drag a front towards the
service area to provide somewhat of a boost to rain chances on
Friday mainly northwest of Tallahassee. Otherwise, the end of
period is looking to be fairly hot, as some locations could see
highs in the mid 90s. Heat indices approach 100 degrees heading
into next weekend. Overnight lows are forecast to be mostly in
the muggy low 70s.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A few showers
cannot be ruled out today, mainly south of a line from ECP to TLH.


.MARINE...

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail into mid next week.
West to southwest winds between 10 and 15 knots are forecast today
and tonight, before shifting out of the south to southeast through
Tuesday, then east by Wednesday. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms are low for the holiday weekend with the best
potential on Memorial Day, particularly across Apalachee Bay.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After the recent wet pattern, the region will transition to more of
drier pattern. Despite this, a few showers cannot be ruled out
across the coastal region today with the chance for wetting rain
gradually increasing into next week. RH values will main bottom out
in the 30 to 40 percent range today and tomorrow afternoon. High
dispersion values will be possible across the southeast Big Bend
this afternoon, in addition to patchy fog this morning.


.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns over the next several days as the
weather is shaping up to be quieter compared to this past week.
Greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms are Monday and
Tuesday, but forecast amounts are low at generally less than a half-
inch over the FL Big Bend and portions of southwest GA. In terms of
rivers, Choctawhatchee Caryville approaches action stage Sunday
morning, but looks to crest, then drop off thereafter.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   89  66  92  67  92 /  20   0  10   0  20
Panama City   85  69  87  67  89 /  10   0  10   0  10
Dothan        85  64  87  66  88 /  10   0  20   0  20
Albany        87  65  92  67  93 /  10   0  10  10  30
Valdosta      89  65  93  67  93 /  10   0  10  10  40
Cross City    88  67  93  67  91 /  20   0  10   0  40
Apalachicola  85  70  86  69  84 /  20   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bunker
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...IG3