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000
FXUS62 KTAE 110652
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.NEAR TERM [Today]...

Shortwave trough will swing through and eastward today with ridging
building behind it. A surface trough will push into northeast
Florida and clear our tri-state region early this morning. Behind
the surface trough, winds will turn northwesterly and allow some
drier air to work in from the Tennessee Valley. As far as convection
goes today, the best moisture will reside in the Big Bend and
immediate coast with an isolated shower or storm possible. Coverage
will be few and far between.

It will be another hot day today with highs in the mid to upper 90s
region wide. The drier air working in from north to south today will
allow our Alabama and Georgia counties to mix down that drier air so
heat indices will be around 100-105 degrees. Further south into the
Florida counties, dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s which will
allow heat indices to reach 108-110 degrees and over the critical
threshold for a heat advisory. Have issued a heat advisory today for
most locations along and south of Interstate 10.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Broad upper level troughing will continue through the remainder of
the short term period. This generally means that northwest flow
will continue across the region. An interesting flow pattern is
expected to develop Saturday through Sunday as the remnants of
tropical storm Fay merges with a stronger shortwave trough
embedded in the northern upper level flow pattern. This merging of
the two upper level pieces of energy tightens the more broad
trough that is currently being observed over the eastern conus. As
this tightening occurs, a brief window on Saturday and Sunday
allows for much drier air to penetrate into the region, which may
stifle shower and thunderstorm development. PW values over the
region are forecasted to be just over 1 inch for much of the
region on Sunday. That being said a weak perturbation in the flow
pattern is expected to round the base of the trough on Sunday
across the region, and may allow for some thunderstorm development
given enough forcing for ascent.

A re-introduction of moisture from the northwest with yet another
perturbation in the upper level flow pattern that is expected to
round the base of the aforementioned upper level trough will
likely bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorm
activity to the area. Nevertheless, high temperatures are expected
to be hot with highs climbing into the upper 90s and a few
locations potentially reaching 100 Saturday and Sunday, especially
across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Monday, high
temperatures will only climb into the mid 90s providing some
relief; however, with the re- introduction of low level moisture
back into the area temperatures may actually feel hotter than on
Saturday and Sunday, with current forecasted heat indices expected
to reach well above 108 degrees.



.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

The upper level pattern is slowly expected to transition through
the remainder of the week as ridge building occurs north of the
area. This will lead to easterly flow developing as the week
progresses. With the northern flow pattern finally pushing well
north into Canada, the influence of the rather strong Bermuda high
pressure system off the coast of the eastern United States will
dominate the flow pattern through the remainder of the period.
This will generally lead to a more typical summer time pattern
with sea-breeze convection developing daily with diurnal heating.
With strong enough easterly flow, the region may see the east
coast sea-breeze a few times, especially across the eastern
portions of our region. Generally temperatures will stay hot with
highs reaching the mid 90s everyday through the remainder of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

Drier air will work into the region on northwesterly flow today and
tonight. This will push the higher moisture into the Florida Big
Bend and eastward. Rain chances won`t be very high and with the
drier air moving in, no mention of storms in the TAFs. VFR through
the period with northwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Westerly winds less than 15 knots are expected to persist through
Monday. Seas are expected to remain between 2-3 feet with showers
and thunderstorms expected today, but will decrease in chances
through the weekend. Higher chances of thunderstorms and showers
are expected to return by Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersions throughout southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
expected over the next several days.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no significant flooding concerns for the next several
days. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
occasionally produce isolated heavy rain totals, but nothing
atypical for summer is expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  71  99  74  95 /  20   0  10  20  50
Panama City   94  75  94  78  91 /  20   0  10  20  30
Dothan        95  70  97  74  95 /   0   0  30  40  50
Albany        96  71  97  76  95 /   0   0  20  40  50
Valdosta      95  70  96  73  93 /  20   0  10  20  50
Cross City    95  74  95  75  92 /  40   0  10  10  30
Apalachicola  92  75  93  78  90 /  20   0  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM...Bunker
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Bunker