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000
FXUS62 KTAE 250744
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
344 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

High pressure will slowly falter today, allowing for moisture to
gradually spread into the region. Expect mainly dry weather today
with the sea breeze pushing inland by the afternoon. Tonight and
into the overnight hours, upper level troughing moves over the Great
Lakes and places much of the southeast under its influence. Precip
chances may start to move onshore during this time, as a disturbance
moves across Gulf and towards the FL Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

A weak surface trough will move westward across the Gulf of Mexico
while a weak cold front sags southward into the southeast US
toward the Gulf Coast. This will lead to increasing moisture and
the beginning of an unsettled period. PWATs increase to 1.7 to 2.1
inches. The added lift from both the trough and cold front will
lead to increased rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, highs in
the Florida and Georgia counties. It is noted that models have
been trending drier across the northwestern part of our forecast
area, and this forecast lies below the NBM for rain chances. While
widespread heavy rain is not forecast, some pockets of heavy
downpours are possible.

Instability is rather limited, though deep layer shear of 20-30
knots is expected. While this likely won`t lead to severe storms,
an isolated strong storm or two in the afternoons can`t be ruled
out.

Given the added cloud cover, high temperatures will be held back
into the lower to middle 80s both day (Wednesday being the cooler
day). Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

The cold front slides south of the forecast area Thursday, though
abundant moisture remains in place as weak shortwaves move through
the Southeast. This will keep rain chances on the higher side for
Thursday, then tapering Friday into the weekend. However, models
diverge significantly at this point as the GFS and its ensembles
build high pressure over the eastern US with much drier air
filtering in from the northeast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and its
ensembles are generally weaker with the high pressure, leading to
a bit more moisture remaining in place. Both camps, however, do
have some form of troughiness over the southern Gulf -- close
enough that some low rain chances are maintained near the coast
and over the waters. But the forecast this far out is of low
confidence.

Abundant cloud cover keeps things a bit cooler for us Thursday
with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A slight moderating
trend takes place heading into the weekend. Lows will generally
remain in the 60s through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the TAF cycle. There is a
very small chance that a few sites like KTLH and KVLD may see MVFR
vis around sunrise; however, confidence isn`t high enough to drop
them lower than 5SM. After expect another dry day. We could see a
few showers and thunderstorms try to creep in at the end of the
TAF cycle, potentially impacting KECP and KTLH. Will re-evaluate
adding precip at the 12Z forecast issuance.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

Light east to southeast winds early this week will increase
slightly and become more northeasterly later in the week. Seas
will remain around 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms will
become more common starting tonight with an active pattern
continuing through the end of the week as a trough of low pressure
moves west over the Gulf and a cold front sags southward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

A chance in the weather pattern in is forecast, with today being the
last dry day. Moisture starts to surge in this evening and
overnight, with precip chances potentially creeping into the FL
counties. Wetter weather is forecast starting Tuesday and Wednesday,
with chances decreasing later in the week. The only fire weather
concerns to note are the potential areas of low dispersions on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2023

With increasing PWATs of 1.7-2.1 inches across the area, there is
some potential for localized heavy rainfall over the next several
days. This potential is greatest near the coast and in the eastern
third of our forecast area where 2 to 3 inches of rain could fall
from tonight through Friday. Rainfall totals decrease farther
north and west. WPC has a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
(level 1 of 4) for Tuesday across the Florida counties and again
on Wednesday for our Florida counties as well as the Georgia
counties east of the Flint River. Given generally dry antecedent
conditions and ongoing drought conditions in our western areas,
the threats of flash flooding and river flooding are low.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  72  84  72 /  10  40  80  60
Panama City   90  72  84  72 /   0  50  80  70
Dothan        90  68  85  69 /   0  10  60  40
Albany        91  68  86  69 /   0  10  50  50
Valdosta      91  71  85  70 /   0  20  70  60
Cross City    91  71  89  71 /  40  40  90  60
Apalachicola  86  74  84  73 /  20  70  80  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young