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000
FXUS62 KTAE 191051
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Periods of SHRA will continue through the morning hours along with
gusty winds and CIGs generally around or under 1000 feet. Winds
will veer around from the east to the south and around to the
west-northwest through the morning hours. Conditions will improve
from southwest to northeast through the day, with winds decreasing
to 10 to 15 knots by this afternoon at all terminals and CIGs
lifting to 2000 to 3000 feet. While brief periods of heavy rain
will be possible, vsby restrictions are generally not expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [245 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The center of Tropical Storm Nestor is just south of the Florida
Panhandle this morning, and expected to make landfall near
Apalachicola later this morning. Much of the associated weather
with Nestor is displaced well to the east over the Florida
Peninsula. However, tropical storm force winds and locally heavy
rain are still expected to spread across the eastern Panhandle
and Big Bend as the center moves through. In addition, as winds
shift to the south and southwest over the waters later this
morning, water levels will rise along the shores of Apalachee
Bay. Depending on the exact timing relative to high tide, could
see waters levels up to around 5 ft MHHW.

Fortunately, Nestor is expected to exit the area quickly today,
limiting the threat of flooding rainfall. By this afternoon,
conditions should begin to rapidly improve from southwest to
northeast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Conditions will continue to improve tonight as Post-Tropical
Nestor moves rapidly to the northeast. The northerly flow behind
Nestor will drag in some cooler and drier air, with lows Sunday
morning getting into the 50s for much of the area. Dry and
seasonable weather is expected for Sunday, with highs reaching the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

By Monday, increasing southerly flow, ahead of an approaching
upper trough and cold front, will increase deep layer moisture and
bring showers back to the region.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The aforementioned cold front will push across the forecast area
on Tuesday, ushering in another nice burst of drier and cooler
air. Will likely see some 40 degree temperatures across the
northern and western counties Wednesday morning, with afternoon
temperatures only into the 70s. The pleasant weather will persist
through Thursday, before rain chances increase again late in the
week ahead of another cold front.


.MARINE...
Tropical storm conditions will continue over the coastal waters
this morning, before beginning to improve during the afternoon. By
Sunday, winds will be light and seas will continue to diminish.
Offshore winds will increase once again by Wednesday in the wake
of a cold front.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with Tropical Storm
Nestor, especially close to the coast. Rainfall totals could
approach 6 inches in spots, but more general amounts will be 2 to
4 inches. This should not cause any significant issues on area
rivers and streams.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   77  58  84  61  85 /  90  10   0   0  40
Panama City   77  63  83  68  84 /  60  10   0  10  60
Dothan        72  55  81  61  82 /  80  10   0   0  40
Albany        73  58  79  61  83 /  90  20   0   0  30
Valdosta      80  58  80  60  84 /  90  20   0   0  20
Cross City    81  63  84  63  86 /  90  20   0   0  30
Apalachicola  80  64  80  68  82 /  80  10   0  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South
     Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Warning until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for Houston.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From
     Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola
     FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa
     Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River
     to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Camp