118
FXUS62 KTAE 250749
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
349 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Dense fog this morning is the main concern.

The near-surface environment is stable and saturated early this
morning. Widespread fog development has been occurring as the thick
high cirrus canopy clears out to the east. We have already issued a
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am ET / 9 am CT for most of the area.
Any voids in the fog will fill in as we approach sunrise and the
morning commuting hours. Then visibility will start to rapidly
improve about 2 hours after sunrise.

A surface ridge axis across Lower Alabama and south Georgia this
morning will settle south across the far northern Gulf this
afternoon. Meanwhile at 500 mb, dry west-northwest flow will
prevail, and heights will slowly climb for the next 24 hours. Under
a high pressure setup, large-scale subsidence will allow mostly
clear skies this afternoon, along with a little drying of the low-
level air mass. Nonetheless, a nearshore seabreeze this afternoon
will keep the coastal air mass a bit moister, and that`s where areas
of fog are expected to redevelop late tonight. Guidance points to
the FL Panhandle for best odds of getting fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A sprawling area of high pressure will dominate our forecast for the
second half of the week. Ample sunshine coupled with dry air should
lead to daytime highs in the 80s away from the coast each afternoon
and overnight lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s each night. The
high moves offshore this weekend, allowing moisture to return to the
region ahead of another storm system translating across the country.
While uncertainty remains on how this storm system evolves, it
appears our next best chance for rain returns later Saturday and
continues into Sunday.

Aloft, an H5 trough over the eastern third of the country keeps dry
northwesterly flow over the region. An H5 ridge over Texas moseys
east Thursday and will keep dry weather in the forecast Thursday and
Friday. A southern stream shortwave moving through Mexico sets up
shop over Texas Thursday night into Friday. It will take a day or
two to finally move east along the northern Gulf Coast. This will
help provide enough lift to produce some rain for our area on
Saturday. Another H5 trough moving out of the Intermountain West
will spawn an area of low pressure and associated cold front that
quickly moves east across the country Saturday night into Sunday and
will bring our next chance for rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

LIFR fog and low cigs have been observed at times at DHN, ECP, and
ABY. As high clouds clear out of TLH and VLD early this morning,
those terminals will see vsbys and cigs reliably tank, with 1/4SM
vsby forecast in the hours leading up to and including sunrise.
Where there are currently voids in the fog, the voids will fill in
by sunrise.

The dense fog should start to disperse about 2 hours after sunrise,
with stratus quickly lifting into early afternoon. By mid-afternoon,
large-scale subsidence may eliminate thermal lift-driven cumulus,
leaving clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

A cold front moves through the northeastern Gulf today with some fog
possible tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in
Wednesday and will control the weather the rest of the week.
Easterly wind surges are expected each night starting Wednesday
night through at least Friday night with wind speeds approaching
Cautionary conditions. Waves will generally run between 2 to 3
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

Dense fog this morning will start to rapidly improve about 2 hours
after sunrise this morning, and then a sunny afternoon is in store.
A dry cold frontal passage early Wednesday will bring increased west-
northwest flow and a drier air mass on Wednesday. This will be one
of those cold fronts that is followed by drier air but not cooler
air. The increased flow on Wednesday will contribute to high
dispersion. High pressure at the surface and aloft will continue
Thursday and Friday. Then low pressure over the Southern Plains this
weekend will turn our flow southerly, moistening the air mass enough
to bring a slight chance of thunderstorms into the forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025

No significant rainfall is expected through the work week. The next
opportunity for rain arrives over the weekend into early next week.
Preliminary rainfall totals of less than 1" is currently expected
for much of the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   80  56  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   74  58  80  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  53  82  50 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        78  52  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    81  53  85  52 /  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  58  77  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     FLZ007>019-027-028-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-326-426.

GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>131-
     142>148-155>161.

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Reese