091
FXUS62 KTAE 130128
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
928 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Only minor adjustments have been made to the forecast. Otherwise,
everything seems on track for tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

An upper level high pressure system across the Gulf continues to
nose in across the CWA, and will continue to do so throughout the
weekend. This is likely why the coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms have been confined to the coastal counties thus far.
However, additional inland shower and thunderstorms later this
aftn/early evening can not be ruled out, given PWATS of near 2.0
inches coupled with daytime destabilization. As such, lightning,
brief downpours and gusty winds will be the main threats.

A similar set up is expected for Sunday, with aftn showers and
thunderstorms being a possibility once again. The main concern as we
head into the latter-half of the weekend will be heat advisory
concerns. Model guidance hint at max Apparent Temps nearing advisory
criteria more so across the southern zones on Sunday. If outdoors,
it is highly encouraged to follow a few heat safety rules such as
maintaining hydration, cooling off in the shade and wearing light-
colored clothing.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)

Main concerns will be the potential for hazardous heat on Monday
and Tuesday, followed by an increasingly wet pattern by midweek.
Early in the week, northerly flow in the 1000-700 hPa layer will
tend to supress PoPs below average on Monday with the seabreeze
pinned closer to the coast, then returning to near average on
Tuesday as PWATs increase to the ~75th percentile of climatology.

With highs in the middle to upper 90s, even blending in lower dew
points to account for turbulent mixing during the afternoons and
evenings, heat indices/apparent temperatures may rise to advisory
levels (108-112F); areas favored for this are generally south of
the Route 84 corridor. There is a 60% chance that we will reach
heat advisory criteria on Monday/Tuesday.

NHC is monitoring a disturbance near the Bahamas that is expected to
move westward into the Gulf by the middle of next week. The chance
of formation beyond 48 hours and out to day 7 is 20%. Main concern
at this time is increased rain chances across the region Wednesday
through Friday, when PoPs return to above average. This will also
cool temperatures and keep heat indices/apparent temperatures below
advisory thresholds between Wednesday and Friday.

Went below guidance on PoPs thru the period, which has been biased
high even during the wetter regimes, especially early in the week.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Outside of convection, VFR through the period. Storms should wind
down over the next several hours with clearing skies overnight.
Sunday, a typical summertime regime of convection will set up in
the afternoon with the better chances from ECP and TLH with lower
chances north and across the other TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The coastal waters will be under the influence of subtropical high
pressure through this weekend with southwest winds maximizing near
the coast with the daily seabreeze. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will be greatest during the morning hours through early next week,
with waterspouts possible, especially Sunday morning. Winds clock
around to northwest Sunday night into Monday.

As a disturbance in the form of a weak trough of low pressure
crosses the waters Tuesday through Thursday, winds clock around
northeast to southerly. The chance that this disturbance develops
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is 20% through day 7. The
main concern at this time is increased chances of showers and
thunderstorms, which may lead to locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

An upper level ridge across the Gulf will continue to nose in
across the region throughout the rest of the weekend, resulting
in slightly lowered relative humidities. However, minimum
relative humidity values will still remain above 40 percent, and
good dispersions expected /especially across GA/ will result in
low fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Rainfall chances near average through early next week, then above
average during the middle of next week as a trough of low pressure
moves into the Gulf. The main concerns will be minor flooding of
low lying and poor drainage areas in association with diurnally
driven thunderstorms. By next weekend, anomalously high moisture
and a nearby boundary may increase the flash flood risk, although
details at this time range remain highly uncertain.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  96  77  98 /  10  60  10  50
Panama City   79  93  79  95 /  10  50  10  30
Dothan        74  96  75  98 /  10  30  10  30
Albany        75  97  76  99 /  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      75  98  76  99 /  10  30  20  50
Cross City    76  95  76  96 /  20  60  20  60
Apalachicola  78  91  79  93 /  10  50  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Bowser
HYDROLOGY...LF