984
FXUS62 KTAE 131831
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

- Another round of fog, especially across the Florida Big Bend
  into south-central Georgia, is expected tonight ahead of the
  cold front.

- A Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze for temperatures at or below 25 degrees
  is in effect for our Alabama and Georgia counties Sunday night
  into Monday morning.

- A Freeze Watch for temperatures below 32 degrees is in effect
  for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin County Sunday night
  into Monday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning
  across the area for wind chills between 15 and 20 degrees in
  Alabama and Georgia and 16 to 24 degrees for Florida.

- Additional Cold Weather Products likely needed Monday night into
  Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Cold front nears our area tonight and will push through during the
day Sunday. A few showers are expected along the front, especially
across Southeastern Alabama, later tonight into Sunday morning. Even
if we do get rain, not a whole lot is expected with less than 0.10
inch forecast.

Temperatures will be tricky across the region on Sunday. Our
northern counties will likely experience the warmest temperatures in
the morning with dropping temperatures throughout the day.
Meanwhile, the fog may limit heating across the Florida Big Bend and
south-central Georgia before breaking just ahead of the front; how
much we`ll be able to warm there before the Cold Air Advection (CAA)
from the front remains uncertain. So, admittedly, there is lower
confidence than normal for this temperature forecast.

That said, we`re forecasting highs for Sunday near 60 across our
northern Georgia and Alabama counties and the upper 60s to near 70
farther south before the front drops temperatures behind it.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Cold. That sums up the forecast to start the period. Strong CAA will
be ongoing Sunday night with air temperatures dipping into the
middle to upper 20s for most of the area away from the coast, where
you`ll be closer to 30. As a result, have gone ahead and issued a
Freeze Watch for the Emerald Coast and coastal Franklin county,
where the Freeze (for temperatures between 26-32 degrees) program is
ongoing. And there is a Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze (for
temperatures at or below 25 degrees) for our Alabama and Georgia
counties.

Northerly to northeasterly breezes at 10 to 15 mph, gusting to near
20 mph, will create Cold Weather Advisory Wind Chills, or below 25
degrees in Florida and below 20 degrees in Alabama and Georgia. Due
to increased confidence and collaboration with neighbors, have gone
ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for all of our area for
Sunday night into Monday morning.

Monday afternoon will be cold with highs struggling to get out of
the 40s across the entire region. Another cold night is in store
Monday night as the surface high settles nearly overhead and should
allow for decent radiational cooling. Additional cold weather
products, either Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze or Cold Weather
Advisories, may be needed. A note about Monday night/Tuesday
morning: subtle moisture increase around 900mb could throw a wrench
into the forecast, especially for the eastern third of our area, or
south and east of a line from near Tifton to Apalachicola in the
form of some cloud cover.

A warming trend commences Tuesday afternoon with highs back near 60
Tuesday and near 70 again Thursday and Friday. Low chances for rain
return later next week as an H5 shortwave races over the region.
However, moisture return appears meager at this time and have capped
rain chances at 20 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the afternoon but another round of
IFR/LIFR cigs and visibilities are possible after 06z at all
terminals, especially across Florida Big Bend terminals and into
south-central Georgia ahead of a frontal system. The front should
pass through the area beginning at ECP/DHN around 12z with
northwesterly winds taking over quickly. The front should pass
through ABY/TLH/VLD by 15/16z. Conditions will quickly improve to
MVFR behind the front with VFR conditions like developing by the
later afternoon at area terminals. Expect frequent 25 knot gusts
tomorrow afternoon behind the front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Northerly winds develop behind a strong cold front sweeping through
the northeastern Gulf Sunday. A Gale Warning is now in effect for
Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the Gulf waters west of
Apalachicola. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for the waters east
of Apalachicola later Sunday afternoon and will continue through
Monday morning; Advisory level winds will follow the Gale warning
for waters west of Apalachicola. Light to moderate easterly winds
are forecast later Monday night with more favorable marine
conditions returning to the northeastern Gulf for the middle of the
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

Southwesterly transport winds rapidly turn northerly following the
passage of a cold front Sunday morning into the afternoon. This cold
front will bring a few showers to our Alabama districts, but the
chance for a wetting rain is less than 5 percent. Very low dew
points filter in Sunday night into Monday morning with dew points in
the single digits forecast for much of our Alabama and Georgia
districts along with breezy northerly winds. MinRH values Monday
afternoon will be in the 20 to 30 percent range with temperatures in
the 40s. Low dispersions are a concern Tuesday thanks to high
pressure overhead.

Another round of patchy to areas of dense fog is forecast tonight
into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 128 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

While a few showers are forecast later tonight into early Sunday
morning ahead of a cold front, rainfall totals are forecast to be
less than 0.10 inch. There is another chance for rain later in the
work week, but chances are low, around 20 percent, at this time. No
flooding is anticipated the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   49  63  30  48 /   0  10   0   0
Panama City   55  63  31  51 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        51  59  26  46 /  30  10   0   0
Albany        51  57  25  44 /  20  10   0   0
Valdosta      47  63  25  46 /   0  10   0   0
Cross City    48  73  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  65  34  50 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 10 AM EST
     /9 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-
     115-118-127-128-134-326-426.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161.

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to 9 AM CST
     Monday for ALZ065>069.

     Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
     ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
     GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Gale Warning from noon Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for
     GMZ751-752-770-772.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST
     Monday for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Reese