992
FXUS62 KTAE 151504
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The only update was to extend the chance for showers and
thunderstorms further into this afternoon over Dixie County.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Dry weather is generally expected today, with a cold front slowly
moving across the region. This could spur a few showers and
thunderstorms along it, though confidence was too low to add PoP
anywhere outside of the eastern FL Big Bend. Outside of that, look
for mainly clear skies today with highs in the mid to upper 80s
for SE AL, SW GA, and the W FL Panhandle. The FL Big Bend should
be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps approaching
90 in some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The cold front would have completed its passage and upper level
ridging will begin to build in for Thursday. Temperatures will
still be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, yet we
should be able to enjoy sunny skies. However, the ridge will
quickly pass to the east, ahead of an upper level trough with an
associated cold front. Ahead of this upcoming front, we can expect
showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Friday.
Moisture return with surface southerly flow will increase PoPs to
range between 50%- 70% for the Tri-state region, and will
gradually increase as the system moves east into the start of the
long term. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with
highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows during the
short term will be in the low 70s.

The chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday (Day 3 outlook)
has prompted the WPC to highlight areas along the Chattahoochee
River and west in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.
Areas to the east, excluding the Big Bend, are in a Marginal (1 of
4) risk for excessive rainfall. The outlook is for the convection
that is expected in the afternoon hours and will continue through
the night. The SPC has highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola
River in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather. This will
be an evolving system throughout the day. Check back for more
details regarding the severe wx and heavy rain potentials.

The showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday. A Marginal
(1 of 4) risk covers the entire CWA for Saturday. PoPs are high
with most of the area at or above 80% chances for
rain/thunderstorms. There is a continuation for severe storms into
Saturday, although confidence is medium at this time. Saturday`s
severe potential will depend on the system`s behavior from Friday.
Outside of storms, we may have gusty winds on Saturday. When it`s
all said and done, the forecast is between 1-3" of rain with
isolated higher amounts. Most of the heavy rainfall is forecast to
be north of I-10.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the
remaining showers. This will make way for upper level ridging to
build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder
of the long term period.

Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s for the afternoon
highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances
are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze
convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Satellite shows patchy low clouds over the region and TAF sites
have been bouncing reporting ceilings bouncing between VFR and
MVFR this morning. The good news is that showers and storms held
off for most of the night, but radar has shown some storms
developing over the Gulf. The question is, will they be able to
expand far enough to the north to impact KTLH and KVLD. Confidence
remains relatively low so I kept the TAFs optimistic and left
VCTS/TS out. This will need to be watched and those sites may need
to be amended if they do creep that far inland. Outside of that,
winds may be gusty this afternoon but will begin to decrease as we
head towards sunset. VFR conditions are expected once the low
cloud lifts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1104 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Buoy 42036 this morning has mostly been reporting southerly waves
of 3 feet at 7 seconds.

From CWF synopsis...High pressure will pass across the waters on
Thursday, pushing out the remaining thunderstorms off the northern
Nature Coast later this afternoon. Southerly breezes will start
to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms
will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance of the next weak
frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will pass across the
waters on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Drier weather will mainly prevail today, though some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the SE FL Big Bend. Dry weather
is expected to prevail into Thursday as well, with the main fire
weather concerns these first two days being high dispersions. Come
Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms return, though ahead of it we may see
high dispersions in FL. Wet weather continues into Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta
Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The
latest forecast shows cresting today, then falling into action
stage by Friday. Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from
an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a
bit overdone.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC
highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive
rainfall for Friday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal
risk for the rest of the CWA, excluding the southeast Big Bend. On
Saturday, the entire region is highlighted in a Marginal Risk. An
upgrade for Saturday to a Slight risk could be possible. Through
the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher
amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will
monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  66  90  68 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   84  69  86  72 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        86  63  89  68 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        86  63  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      87  66  89  67 /  10   0   0   0
Cross City    84  66  88  66 /  70   0   0   0
Apalachicola  84  71  85  73 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery