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397
FXUS62 KTAE 182105
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
505 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure will remain centered over the Ohio Valley
tonight as middle and upper level ridging persists over the northern
Gulf Coast. Easterly low level flow behind a westward moving
inverted surface trough will advect higher low level moisture into
southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend
tonight, which should keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer as
compared to last night. Low temperatures will range from the lower
60s north of Interstate 10, to around 70 degrees along the coastal
Florida Big Bend.

The low level moisture advection combined with increasing weak
isentropic ascent over the residual shallow surface boundary near
the coast and the westward propagating inverted surface trough
should support development of stratus later tonight through Friday
morning across mainly southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the
Florida Big Bend region.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Models remain in reasonable agreement and consistent in slowly
shifting the deep layer ridge over the region southward Friday and
Friday night as the upstream cold front advances from the
northwest. Generally mild and dry conditions should continue
through early Saturday with temperatures trending well above
normal for this time of year. A cold front will move across the
forecast area Saturday afternoon and out over the Gulf by early
Saturday evening. A band of deep layer moisture along this
boundary coupled with the projected strong low to mid level
forcing will be enough to support a good chance of showers and
perhaps a slight chance thunderstorms though instability will be
limited. This system will be fast moving with only relatively low
rainfall totals anticipated...generally less than a 1/4 inch.
Drier and cooler air will rapidly follow in the wake of the front
with breezy northerly winds developing Saturday night along the
coast. Overnight lows Saturday night should drop into the low to
mid 50s inland and low to mid to 60s along the coast.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Surface high pressure over the midwestern states propagating
southeastward and a deep trough aloft will keep an offshore flow
going and the advection of cooler temperatures into the area
Sunday. Expect a lot of blue sky on Sunday with daytime high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in northern interior
locations to the mid 70s near the coast. Overnight lows Sunday
night will be the coolest this period dropping into the mid 40s in
the interior to low to mid 50s near the coast. The upper level
trough moves east on Monday and the surface high pressure moves
over the eastern seaboard. In response, temperatures begin to
warm and daytime onshore flow develops gradually increasing the
moisture flux over the region. Model agreement and run to run
consistency begin to break down by Tuesday. Another upper level
shortwave trough looks to drive another weak bounday through the
area from the north Tuesday night while frontogenesis begins over
the western Gulf in response to a deepening upper level trough
over the Midwest Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF pick up on
this feature with the latter being the most aggressive with its
development. Due to the uncertainty at this time remain reluctant
to try to forecast specifics but will trend toward a wetter
forecast for the remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Light easterly winds and VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will again increase this evening and remain moderate
overnight. This will result in hazardous conditions for small craft
tonight over the offshore coastal waters. Dry conditions are
expected across the marine areas tonight.

Winds and seas briefly diminish late Friday morning with low winds
and seas expected through Saturday. A strong cold front will move
across the coastal waters Saturday evening. This will result in an
abrupt increase in winds and seas with small craft advisory
conditions likely developing Saturday night and continuing through
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light winds will lead to only fair dispersions Friday afternoon.
A cold front will push southward across the region Saturday afternoon
creating scattered showers and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms.
Cooler, drier air and northerly winds will follow in its wake..

Fog potential and other remarks...Patchy areas of light fog
are possible Friday night into early Saturday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The flood warning for the Chipola River near Altha has been
canceled. The river stage is currently at 21.18 and is forecast
to slowly fall.

 &&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  87  67  87  59 /  10  10  10  40  20
Panama City   67  85  69  84  59 /  10  10  10  50  10
Dothan        62  82  64  82  53 /   0   0  10  50  10
Albany        63  82  65  85  54 /   0  10  10  50  10
Valdosta      64  84  66  86  57 /  10  10  10  40  20
Cross City    70  88  69  87  64 /  10  30  10  20  20
Apalachicola  71  84  70  85  61 /  10  10  10  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Howell
SHORT TERM...Werner
LONG TERM...Werner
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Howell
FIRE WEATHER...Werner
HYDROLOGY...Werner