Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 161421
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1021 AM EDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A moist airmass remains in place today with the TAE 12z sounding
showing PW values right about 2 inches. Guidance shows these
values increasing slightly this afternoon with a light southerly
mean flow, outside of the southerly sea breeze that should
increase in speed over the next couple hours. Showers and a few
thunderstorms have already been ongoing in the open waters as well
along the coast of Gulf County and points west. An upper
wave/upper convergence will set up near Mobile so the western half
of the FL Panhandle could have slightly higher coverage of storms
this afternoon. The sea breeze will still develop storms along it
and quickly move the storms inland by early this afternoon,
increasing POPs for the rest of the region. With the continued
high PW values and rainfall over the last few days, any storms
will produce locally heavy rainfall with ponding of water
possible, especially in low lying areas. Otherwise, should still
be a mostly cloudy day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [621 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the region as the trough
remains in the Midwest on Friday. On Friday night and Saturday the
trough dips into the Southeast and over the region. At the surface a
weak pressure gradient will be in place with a low moving through
the Great Lakes and Northeast and a high over the Atlantic. There
will be plenty of moisture as deep layer southerly flow continues.
PW values are forecast to be around 2 inches. Afternoon/evening
shower and thunderstorm activity will be fairly widespread with POPs
of 30 to 50 percent forecast for Friday. On Saturday POPs will be
higher (mostly 50 to 70 percent) as the trough dips into the region.
Most of the activity will dissipate shortly after sunset. Highs will
be a tad below normal, in the upper 80s and near 90 due to cloud
cover and rain. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

In the upper levels a weak ridge will be over the FL Peninsula as a
trough remains near the Carolinas. By Monday night another trough
moves into the region. A trough will remain over the Southeast for
the rest of the week. At the surface a weak pressure gradient will
be over the region with high pressure over the Atlantic. By Tuesday
a strong low near the Great Lakes will bring a cold front near the
region. This front will likely slow and weaken as it attempts to
move through. The wet pattern continues as southerly flow keeps
moisture high. POPs will be mainly in the 40 to 60 percent range
during the afternoon/evening hours. Highs will range from upper 80s
to lower 90s depending on rain development. Lows will be in the low
to mid 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, although there could
be some brief restrictions due to patchy fog and/or low ceilings
around DHN early this morning. In addition, scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms with lower conditions are expected to
develop across the area with the highest concentration near ECP this
morning, then spreading north to near DHN this afternoon.


.MARINE...

Light southerly winds are expected through this weekend. Seas will
be low around 1 to 2 feet. The wet pattern continues through the
weekend. Thunderstorms can bring rapidly increasing winds and
seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions will not occur over the next several days with
relative humidity remaining above critical levels across the area.


.HYDROLOGY...

Most local rivers are steady or slowly rising at this time. A few
rivers are in action stage. The wet pattern continues with 0.25 to
1.25 inches of rain forecast through Saturday night.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   90  74  90  74  89 /  50  20  40  20  50
Panama City   88  76  88  76  88 /  60  30  50  30  50
Dothan        88  72  88  72  87 /  60  20  50  30  60
Albany        90  73  90  73  88 /  50  30  40  30  60
Valdosta      91  73  91  73  90 /  50  20  40  20  60
Cross City    92  74  91  74  90 /  50  20  30  10  20
Apalachicola  88  77  88  77  88 /  60  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD


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