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896
FXUS62 KTAE 171040
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
640 AM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR/LIFR CIGs near DHN will lift shortly after sunrise. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected again today. Coverage will be
similar to the past few days. VFR conditions are expected today
outside of thunderstorms. Winds will be light and somewhat
variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [349 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Central and Eastern U.S.
today. A weak trough is possible over Northern AL/GA. At the surface
high pressure is over the Southeast today. A very weak stationary
boundary is currently (2 AM EDT) over Central AL/GA. This boundary
will continue to weaken as it sags southward. POPs will be slightly
higher (50 to 60 percent) in the northernmost counties along the
boundary remnants this afternoon. Elsewhere POPs will be mainly 40
to 50 percent. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity may be a
little bit later to develop today compared to the past few days.
Precipitable water values are forecast to be around two inches again
today and CAPE will be fairly high at 2000 to 3000 J/KG. A few
severe storms are likely and heavy downpours are possible at times.
Skies will be mostly cloudy and highs will be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

High pressure will dominate through the short term with convection
focused on the seabreeze and outflow boundaries. Although
convection has been widespread lately, we should see a slight
downward trends in PoPs (20-50%) compared to the past few days
with the lack of upper level forcing. PW values remain above
normal with values around two inches and this will help to enhance
localized heavy rain in the afternoon/evening thunderstorms.
Expect highs around 90 with lows in the lower to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

High pressure will continue to dominate through the long term. In
addition, PW values will remain above normal, 2+ inches. Expect a
similar pattern to continue with scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms and localized heavy rain with above
normal PW values. Highs will be in the lower 90s with low in the
mid 70s.


.MARINE...

Winds will remain light through the week with speeds around 10
knots or less and seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible each day.


.FIRE WEATHER...

The wet pattern continues. Patchy fog is possible this morning. Low
dispersions below 20 are possible this afternoon. Otherwise no fire
weather concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

With a more typical summertime pattern over the next few days,
widespread flooding is not expected. However, with above normal
precipitable water values, the threat for localized heavy rain
associated with the thunderstorms is elevated.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   92  71  91  72  91 /  50  20  40  30  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  30  10  30  20  40
Dothan        90  72  91  73  91 /  60  30  30  20  40
Albany        89  73  91  74  91 /  60  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      90  71  90  71  90 /  60  30  40  30  40
Cross City    92  72  90  72  88 /  50  20  40  30  40
Apalachicola  88  75  88  75  88 /  20  10  30  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux