658
FXUS62 KTAE 111333
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
933 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Minor changes made to the ongoing forecast. Tweaked the T, TD, RH,
wind and wind gust grids to reflect current trends. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms this morning affecting portions of the
Gulf and the southeast FL Big Bend matches the current forecast.
Expect additional activity later this aftn and into this evening,
with the possibility of brief downpours and gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Seabreeze showers and storms expected again this afternoon. Highs
climb into the lower 90s this afternoon with lows in the middle 70s
tonight.

An H5 ridge over the southern Bahamas combined with the Bermuda High
stretching into the northeastern Gulf will combine to give us
another round of late morning/afternoon showers and storms. The
general motion of these storms are expected to be from west to east
as the seabreeze pushes inland; there are some indications of the
showers and storms heading back southeast in the late afternoon into
the evening. Precipitable water values (PWATs) over 2" across much
of the region means localized flooding is a concern with any of the
slow-moving showers/storms today. DCAPE values of 700-1000 J/kg
means there is the potential for some gusty winds within the more
robust storms that are able to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A fairly typical summer pattern will be in place through the weekend
with upper level ridging and light flow aloft. Plentiful moisture
will be in place with precipitable water values near 2 inches, so
PoPs will generally be in the 40-60% range both Saturday and Sunday
afternoons with the highest chance along the seabreeze across the
Florida panhandle and big bend. Afternoon highs will generally be in
the mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s, except upper 70s
along the coast. By Sunday, peak afternoon heat index values may
reach the 105-110 range, which could necessitate heat advisories for
portions of the area, mainly the southern half.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Early next week is expected to start off hot with ridging still over
the area and light northerly flow aloft. The seabreeze may be
somewhat suppressed on Monday afternoon, and high temperatures are
expected to reach the mid to upper 90s with peak heat indices near
or above 108F possible, which would necessitate heat advisories. By
the middle of the week, ridging may break down a bit with an
inverted trough extending south of the area into the Gulf. This will
keep moisture plentiful across the area with the potential for
increasing rain chances towards the middle and end of next week.
With the increased cloud cover and rain chances towards the end of
the week, high temperatures are expected to cool somewhat back into
the 88-92 range for most areas. Overnight lows will remain muggy
well into the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period with a light to moderate southwesterly to westerly breeze.
Scattered showers and storms are expected again this afternoon
with some of the latest timing portrayed in TEMPO groups at all
TAF sites. Most of the showers and storms should die down near
sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light west to
southwest flow which will be enhanced to 10 to 15 knots near the
coast by the afternoon sea breeze. Convection will be concentrated
in the morning hours, with waterspouts possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Fire weather concerns remain low the next several days. Daily
afternoon showers and storms remain in the forecast. Higher
dispersions are anticipated across our northern Georgia districts
Saturday as a bit of drier air attempts to work into the region
from the northeast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Over the next several days, diurnally driven scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. These will be
typical of the summer wet season. Isolated pockets of heavy rain
could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas with poor
drainage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  75  95  76 /  60  10  50  10
Panama City   91  79  92  78 /  60  10  40  10
Dothan        93  74  94  74 /  60  20  50  10
Albany        93  74  94  74 /  60  30  40  20
Valdosta      95  75  96  76 /  60  20  40  10
Cross City    92  74  94  74 /  50  10  30  10
Apalachicola  89  78  90  78 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bowser
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...DVD