Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 150046
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846 PM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.UPDATE...

A broad area of gusty stratiform rain continues to drift across
the area this evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible,
particularly in the western Gulf waters and Panhandle later
tonight. These showers and storms should diminish in the early
morning hours as another, more robust round of showers and
thunderstorms approaches from the northwest in the morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Strong thunderstorms will be the main concern for the next 24
hours. The radar presentation of storms coming in from the west
will appear to weaken over the next few hours, but entrainment of
dry low-level air will enhance gust potential more than one might
guess with a casual glance at radar.

Mariners and beach goers will want to watch the batch of storms
that is now moving east past the mouth of the Mississippi. All
day, the hourly HRRR runs have been showing gust potential of
35-50 knots as theses weakening storms reach the Gulf waters west
of Apalachicola. Over land, gusts may not be that high, but gusts
will still overperform based on a mere glance at radar or the sky.

For Thursday, storms will develop in advance of a slow-moving cold
front that will sag south through the tri-state area. SPC has now
expanded the Marginal Risk in the convective outlook to include
all of our FL counties and the far southern tier of counties in
Georgia. There should be plenty of instability, and there will be
respectable mid-level speed shear. This should support a risk of
isolated severe gusts and hail. Tornadoes are not much of a
concern, given a lack of low-level shear and perhaps an elevated
component to the convection. Storms will develop in place over SE
Alabama and the FL Panhandle early in the morning. The front will
move southeast through the day and exit Dixie County by late
afternoon or early Thu evening.


.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

Thursday`s slow-moving cold front will drag south into the Gulf on
Thursday night and turn up stationary on Friday. Here to its
north, there will be a lull in rain chances from Thursday night
into Friday morning.

A return of southerly flow is expected on Friday night, as low
pressure starts to develop along the tail end of the front over
the western Gulf. This will start to lift the eastern Gulf portion
of the front back north as a warm front. Rain and thunder will
start to blossom again.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Warm front will lift north into the tri-state area on Saturday,
bringing the next shot of rain and thunder as a low pressure wave
ripples east past the forecast area.

In the wake of the low pressure ripple, the front will shove back
south over the Gulf and the northern FL Peninsula. Our AL/GA
counties will dry out nicely on Sunday, but rain may keep going
over the eastern Big Bend through Monday night.

The front to our south will weaken next Tuesday and Wednesday, as
upper heights rise modestly and flow becomes more unremarkably
zonal. Even the eastern Big Bend comes up with a dry forecast by
late next Wednesday.


.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday]

Messy taf period on tap with areas of rain and low ceilings moving
into the area this evening through tonight. Periods of rain and
thunderstorms are expected through much of the period at all
sites, with ceilings possibly improving from IFR overnight to MVFR
or even VFR tomorrow afternoon.


.MARINE...

The biggest threat to mariners will come in erratic and gusty
thunderstorm outflow wind gusts this evening, particularly over
the Panhandle waters west of Apalachicola. For the casual
observer, these gusts may seem like a surprise, considering the
convective cells may not visibly appear that strong to the eye or
on radar. However, the presence of dry air beneath the cloud bases
will really increase the gust factor, even from seemingly
innocuous cells. Some of our guidance is showing gust potential of
40-50 knots offshore near convective cells this evening. Small
craft operators should think twice before venturing far offshore
this evening.

A cold front will sag south across the waters on Thursday,
bringing a fairly widespread round of strong thunderstorms. That
front will stall out across the northeast Gulf on Thursday night
and Friday. Then a frontal wave will develop off to our west on
Saturday, causing southerly breezes to freshen as the wave moves
east from the Panhandle to northeast Florida.

North and northeast breezes will prevail early next week as a
surface high moves by to the north.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A slow-moving cold front will sag south across the region on
Thursday. It will be accompanied by numerous strong thunderstorms.
Slow movement of the front will enable a widespread wetting rain.
A break in the rain is likely on Thursday night, then more rain
will return on Friday and especially Saturday.


.HYDROLOGY...

Flooding concern has lessened for Thursday. Rainfall forecasts are
now in the 1-1.5 inch range, which should be manageable.

The next heavier round of rain is expected on Saturday. Forecast
rainfall is mostly in the 1-2 inch range, while river guidance
shows it would take nearly 4 inches of rain to bring most river to
minor flood. 4 inches is not out of the question, but this is an
outlier possibility at this point. Certainly, there will be rises
on rivers this weekend and early next week, but river flooding is
unlikely.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  75  59  74  59 /  50  80  20  30  50
Panama City   67  75  59  73  61 /  60  80  10  40  50
Dothan        63  74  54  68  55 /  60  80  10  30  70
Albany        63  75  54  71  55 /  40  90  10  20  60
Valdosta      63  76  57  73  57 /  50  80  20  30  40
Cross City    62  78  62  79  61 /  10  60  40  30  20
Apalachicola  66  74  62  72  62 /  60  70  10  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CDT this evening for Coastal
     Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Merrifield
NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner


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