Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 240111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
911 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018


No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The upper level trough to our east will continue moving off the east
coast as upper level ridging builds in. A shortwave will move along
the top of the ridge late tonight, causing an increase in upper
level cloud cover. At the lower levels, the surface ridge will
continue to eastward overnight and winds will become more southerly,
allowing for light warm air advection. Overnight lows will be mostly
in the 40s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Northwest flow at the mid and upper levels will continue through the
short term with a trough to the east and a ridge building into the
western Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. High pressure at the surface
centered over the CWA today will be situated east of the area over
the Atlantic by Saturday. This will bring surface winds to the
south, bringing Gulf moisture back to the area. While most of the
short term will be dry, a weak front over Georgia on Sunday will
allow for chance PoPs across the northern portion of the CWA. Highs
will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s. With the southerly
flow lows Saturday night will only fall into the mid 50s to lower
60s. As the front sinks southward into the CWA and a wedge builds
into the southeast, Sunday night will be a littler cooler with lows
in the upper 40s north to lower 60s near the coast.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The higher pops associated with the wedge to the northeast of the
CWA will diminish Monday, although light showers remain possible
across the northeast part of the CWA with the wedge. Pops overall
though will remain low until the next system arrives near the end
of the period. By Friday, the dominating high pressure exits the
region as a cold front associated with an upper level trough moves
in. Pops increase from NW to SE starting Thursday, and begin to
exit late Friday. Temperatures will warm through the week after
Monday, cooling slightly on Friday from the cold front. Other than
the cooler temps Monday, highs will range from the lower 70s to
the lower 80s and the lows in the 50s and 60s.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions through the period with only upper level
cloudiness. Southwest winds will increase Saturday and be gusty
at times ahead of a developing frontal system.


As high pressure shifts eastward, winds will become southerly
tonight into tomorrow morning. Brief exercise caution conditions
are possible on Saturday with winds increasing to advisory levels
Monday night into Tuesday.


There are no fire weather concerns at least for the next several days.


A few river points remain in action stage. Rainfall amounts are
limited over the next week and thus flooding is not expected.


Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   44  76  59  82  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   57  73  65  76  60 /   0   0  10  10  20
Dothan        48  78  62  79  52 /   0   0  10  20  30
Albany        47  78  62  77  48 /   0   0  20  50  60
Valdosta      43  77  58  80  52 /   0   0  10  40  60
Cross City    43  76  56  78  55 /   0   0   0  10  20
Apalachicola  53  72  62  77  60 /   0   0   0  10  10




NEAR TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Fieux/Skeen
HYDROLOGY...Fieux is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.