Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 251704
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
104 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions are expected, away from thunderstorms, through the
duration of the TAF. Storms are most likely late this afternoon
at TLH, ECP, and VLD. Should a terminal be impacted by a storm,
there`s a higher than usual chance for strong downbursts on the
order of 40-50kts. Storms should come to an end by 02-03z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [927 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails on the western periphery of
mid/upper ridging, with weak southwesterly flow at the surface
near the center of high pressure. A theta-e boundary is noted from
around Pensacola, northeast through Tifton. The afternoon
seabreeze in the Panhandle is forecast to interact with this
boundary later this afternoon and result in scattered to numerous
storms around the I-10 corridor. With some mid-level dry air in
place, delta theta-e values, and subsequently the WMSI, will be
elevated today. This means that the more robust storms that
develop will have a good chance of producing severe wind gusts and
possibly some small hail. Storms will generally drift northeast
into southeast Alabama and extreme southwest GA through the
evening. Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 90s again this
afternoon, with heat indices over 100 degrees.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Wednesday will be characterized as a warm day with above average
temps and below average convective activity due to subsidence
from a weak ridge located across the region. New high-resolution
model guidance is beginning to show signs of convection developing
along an outflow boundary moving southeast across our AL and GA
counties and into the FL Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. There is
low consistency among these models on the intensity and timing of
this system. So, PoPs have been left in the 20-30% range in this
forecast package. Future updates might prompt higher PoPs as
confidence increases. By Thursday, expect a general increase in
thunderstorm activity along the sea breeze as high pressure
weakens and we return to a more summer-like sea breeze pattern.

The lack of cloud cover on Wednesday will allow high temperatures
to reach the mid to upper 90s which is just slightly above average
for this time of year. Meanwhile, lows will stay around the mid-
70s through Thursday.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Expect typical summer sea breeze pattern to continue Friday
through the weekend with the strongest showers and thunderstorms
developing during the peak heating hours each afternoon. PoPs will
increase to 30-50%, which is more typical for this time of year.
With increasing cloud coverage, high temperatures will be limited
to the low 90s each day. Lows will be in the mid 70s.


.MARINE...

Westerly wind today at around 10 to 15 knots will become
northwesterly at 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday and then
southeasterly at around 10 knots on Thursday. Wave heights will be
around 1 to 2 feet through the forecast period.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion indices the next couple of afternoons,
hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.HYDROLOGY...

No major flooding concerns through the period. Typical summer
seabreeze pattern will return Thursday, but new rainfall amounts are
not expected to cause flooding.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  97  73  95  74 /  30  20  10  20  30
Panama City   78  92  76  91  76 /  10  30  20  20  20
Dothan        73  94  72  94  72 /  30  20  20  30  20
Albany        73  95  73  94  73 /   0  10  10  30  20
Valdosta      73  97  73  94  73 /   0  10  10  30  20
Cross City    75  96  73  93  74 /  10  10  20  20  30
Apalachicola  77  92  76  90  78 /  10  20  10  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...DiCatarina
LONG TERM...DiCatarina
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...DiCatarina
FIRE WEATHER...DiCatarina
HYDROLOGY...DiCatarina


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